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European Market Update: German Apr jobless data declines more than expectations

Thursday, April 29, 2010 5:46:02 AM

 European Market Update: German Apr jobless data declines more than expectations

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) cuts Refi rate by 25bps to 8.00% (in line with policy)
- (UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 10.5% v 9.7%e
- (GE) Germany March ILO Unemployment 7.3% v 7.3% prior
- (SP) Spain Feb Total Housing Permits M/M: 23.2% v -23.7% prior; Y/Y: -20.3% v -29.6% prior
- (SP) Spain Apr Preliminary
CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (SW) Sweden Apr Consumer Confidence: 19.5v 16.0e; Economic tendency: 105.6 v 108.3e
- (SW) Sweden Q1 Manufacturing Confidence: 0 v 5e
- (DE) Denmark Mar Unemployment Rate SA: 4.2% v 4.2%e
- (SW) Sweden Mar Household lending Y/Y: 9.3% v 9.3% prior
- (SW) Sweden Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.0%e
- (SW) Sweden Feb Wages Non-Manual Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0% prior
- (GE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: -68K v -10Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 8.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.1%e; M3 Three-month Avg: -0.1% v -0.2%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 13.3% v 3.7%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Hourly wages M/M: 0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Apr 23rd: $454.7B v $456.3B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Business Climate: +0.23 v -0.12e (first positive reading since Jun 2008); Consumer Confidence: -15 v -15e; Industrial Confidence: -7 v -8e; Economic Confidence: 100.6 v 99.4e; Services Confidence: 5 v 3e
- (IC) Iceland Apr CPI M/M: 0.2 v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 8.3 v 8.5% prior
- (BE) Belgium Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7% prior
- (SA) South Africa Mar PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.9%e
- (PO) Portugal Apr Consumer Confidence: -36.7 v -35.4 prior; Economic Climate: -0.2 v -0.5 prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European markets are attempting to pick through a deluge of data and market flows. Yesterday's
US equity recovery on FOMC comments led to a mixed equity performance in Asia (Japanese markets being closed for Emperor's day). The single largest macro concern continues to come from sovereign risk, highlighted by S&P's cut to Spain yesterday. Added to this uncertainty, earnings figures have hit their Q1 peak in Europe, delivering a mixed bag, but broadly supportive corporate tone. Tier 1 German names that provided solid figures included Siemens [SIE.GE], which raised its FY10 sector profits target. German firms that failed to impress investors included BASF [BAS.GE], Bayer [BAYN.GE] and MAN Ag [MAN.GE]. French corporate results included positively met figures from France Telecom [FTE.FR] and Suez Environment [SEZ.FR], and negatively viewed numbers from Sanofi [SAN.FR] and PPR [PP.UK]. Not to be outdone, UK corporations released a deluge of earnings and updates, highlighted by BskyB [BSY.UK] and Standard Life [SL.UK]. Other macro level names that reported included Unilever [UNA.NV], which boosted the consumer discretionary sector and ArcelorMittal [MT.NV], which reiterated views in the global steel sector. Trading levels have been choppy throughout the European morning session. Equities opened higher, rebounding from Wednesday's losses, only to rotate lower on debt concerns. Ahead of 4:00EST, supportive German unemployment figures sent markets definitively back into positive territory. Equity markets in Europe are coming off two session of continuous declines. As has been the trend through the week, turnover volumes are significantly ahead of moving averages, volumes have been concentrated in earnings and financial names.

- In Individual Stocks: ArcellorMittal [MT.NV]: Reports Q1 Net $679M v $360Me, Rev $18.7B v $19.4Be. || Siemens [SIE.GE]: Reports Q2 Net €1.48B v €1.05Be, Rev €18.2B v €17.5Be; Updates FY10 guidance. || BASF [BAS.GE]: Reports Q1 Net €1.03B v €910Me, Rev €15.5B v €14.4Be; Reiterates FY outlook. || Bayer [BAYN.GE]: Reports Q1 Net €693M v €840Me, Rev €8.3B v €8.3Be; Raises FY10 EBITDA guidance. || E.on [EOAN.GE]: PPL To acquire Kentucky's E.ON U.S. LLC, the parent company of Kentucky's two major utilities - Louisville Gas & Electric Company and Kentucky Utilities Company - for $7.6B. || Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK]: Reports Q1 production report: on track to meet annual target. || Pernod Ricard [RI.FR]: Reports Q3 Rev €1.54B v €1.5Be; Organic growth +16% || Sanofi [SAN.FR]: Reports Q1 Net €1.71B v €1.58B y/y, Op Profit €2.43B v €2.4Be, Rev €7.39B v €7.4Be. || BG [BG.UK]: Provides update: Reports Q1 Net $960M v $1B y/y, Rev $4.50B v $4.33B y/y. || Standard life [SL.UK]: Reports Q1 Rev £4.6B v £3.6B y/y, Net inflows £2.1B v £600m y/y. || PPR [PP.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €4.1B v €4.1Be.

- Speakers: ECB's Weber commented in a German newspaper interview that
Greece was and is a burden for the Euro. The aid for Greece was attached to tough conditions and viewed as the best way to proceed. He reiterated the view that removal of Greece from EMU was not an option and legally not possible. Such an expulsion would set off a significant economic and financial upheaval as the impact of default by Greece on markets and other countries would be incalculable. EU institutions could ensure stability of the currency. *** Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) Wickman-Park commented that an interest rate hike was "not too far off" . The upturn in employment had started, but unemployment remained at high levels.Household lending growth was unsustainable and saw a big correction if credit growth continued ***China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated that China cuts short term foreign debt quota by 1.5%. The cut was done in order to prevent abnormal capital flows ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The USD was a touch softer in the European morning with dealers citing the Fed recommitment to its ongoing ultra-accommodative policy, leaving its "exceptionally low rates for an extended period intact. EUR/USD was drifting towards the mid 1.32 area in a lackluster session. The Italian debt auction went smoothly and the European peripherals were moving off their widening mode experienced earlier in the week. The yield on the Greek 2-year bonds steadily move lower from its 17.8% opening to test below 16% as the NY morning approached.
Germany's net change in unemployment came in far better than expected but with short term workers adding its cause. GBP/USD approached 1.4250 on Far East sovereign demand.

***Notes/Observations:
- German April jobless declines more than expected aided by short-term workers
- European peripherals narrow in session on continued optimism that a Greek resolution is near
- US corporate earning in full gear

***Looking Ahead***
- (BR) Brazil Mar Central Gov't Budget: $2.0Be v -$1.1B prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 7:30 ECB's Trichet
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Unemployment Rate: 7.6%e v 7.4% prior
- 8:30 ECB's Quaden
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 445Ke v 456K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.618Me v 4.646M prior
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 1.44T prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 833B prior
- 10:30: Bank of Canada's Carney
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 7-years Notes
- 14:30 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner on FY11 budget

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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