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Thursday April 29, 2010 - 10:50:18 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 29,
Fundamental Analysis: BoJ Press
Japanese traders look forward to the press conference held by
the Bank of Japan, their preferred method of communicating with investors.
Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and
changes in interest rates.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3188, and
successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3113 with unbelievable
accuracy (Yesterdayâ€™s low was 1.3113 EXACTLY). Although the price bounced back
above 1.32 (confirming the importance of 1.3113), but there is no change on the
technical outlook , we still believe that this downtrend is capable of breaking
the 1.30 landmark, and go into the 1.20s for the first time in a year. But,
after yesterdayâ€™s plunge we could see a rising correction, or actually we are
probably in one, which should stay inside the channel drawn on the attached
chart. That is why we will focus on short term levels for today, waiting for one
of them to give us the direction for the next several hours. Short term support
is at the nearby 1.3190, and breaking it would indicate a drop to 1.3113 once
again, then maybe we will see 1.3050. The resistance is at 1.3232, and breaking
it would confirm that we are in a rising correction for yesterdayâ€™s drop, with
the ideal target at 1.3299, and the maximum target at the channelâ€™s top 1.3340.
We see that it is very hard for the Euro to decisively break this
â€˘ 1.3190: important intraday support.
1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
â€˘ 1.3050: Apr 20th 2009
â€˘ 1.3232: important intraday resistance.
1.3299: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.3414.
â€˘ 1.3340: the top of
the falling channel on hourly
We would completely
abandon our focus on 93.62, after the price broke it several times without being
able to create a decisive move in any of the times it broke this previously
important level. We will focus on analyzing the rising move from 92.80, which
seems to be doing good. This move has reached 94.30 so far, and it stopped in
the same area as Mondayâ€™s rise, when the high was 94.34. Thus, 94.30 will be our
resistance for the day, breaking it would give us a chance to finally seethe
long awaited 95 area, where there are several important levels we like such as
95.05 & 95.90. But when talking about support, we should consider the
correction possibility for the whole rise from 92.80. IF we break Fibonacci
38.2% for the rise from 92.80 to 94.30, which is at 93.73, we will be officially
in a correction. This correction targets 93.37 ideally, and if broken we will
see a strong hard drop to the most important support 92.38. This is a critical
support for the medium term as well.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
â€˘ 93.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 92.38: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart, after it has
â€˘ 94.30: yesterdayâ€™s high which is
very close to Mondayâ€™s high, and this weekâ€™s high 94.34.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th
â€˘ 95.90: Jul 29th low.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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