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Thursday April 29, 2010 - 17:15:45 GMT
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Euro Mounting Comeback as Greece Tensions Ease

A combination of optimism in the Euro Zone and dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve is helping to pressure the U.S. Dollar overnight.

The EUR USD is mounting a strong comeback as traders have become more optimistic that Greece and the European Union are close to agreeing upon a loan bailout package. Although investors continue to remain nervous about the dire economic conditions in the Euro Zone, they do feel that the worst may be over at least in the short run. This news is encouraging a few of the weaker traders to cover their short positions while at the same time attracting aggressive bottom-pickers. The main concern among investors is the lack of clarity and detail regarding the pending agreement. Now that optimism appears to be returning, the lack of fresh positive news could help to limit gains.

Technically the Euro posted a daily closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday. This type of formation usually leads to a 2 to 3 day retracement. Based on the current chart formation, watch for a short-term rally to 1.3402.

The GBP USD is rebounding after trading lower for several days. A combination of a weak economy and election concerns have been pressuring the Sterling. Traders have also been concerned that the fiscal problems in the Euro Zone have set up the U.K. to be the next country to have debt problems.

The main concern among investors this week has been the upcoming May 6th election. Recent poll results have shown that the election is too close to call. This means that without a majority party, the chances for a hung parliament have increased. Under this condition, it may be difficult for the government to come up with a solution to its budget deficit. This could eventually mean a debt rating downgrade for the U.K.

The stronger Euro is pressuring the USD CHF. The stronger the Euro becomes the less likely the Swiss National Bank will intervene to weaken its currency. The SNB is mandated to support the Swiss Franc in an effort to protect its export business.

The outlook for higher equity markets and a general increase in demand for higher risk assets is helping to underpin the USD JPY today. Traders have also been pressuring the Japanese Yen this week because of concerns over growing Japanese debt. The situation in Greece has led investors to believe that a debt rating cut is likely if global economic conditions continue to worsen.

Rising crude oil and increased demand for higher yielding assets is helping to pressure the USD CAD. Yesterday’s Fed statement said interest rates would remain low for “an extended period”. The Bank of Canada said recently that interest rates would be raised sooner than expected. With the interest rate spread between the two countries likely to widen, investors are moving money into the Canadian Dollar to take advantage of this interest rate differential. Losses could be limited if gold breaks sharply.

Higher than expected inflation and soft Fed comments, are helping to drive the AUD USD higher. On Wednesday, the Australian Dollar advanced from a four-week low after a government report showed inflation almost doubled during the last quarter. This triggered a short-covering rally on renewed talk that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise interest rates at its May meeting.

After holding steady throughout the day, the Aussie surged to a new high for the day after soft comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates would remain at historically low levels. With the Fed holding rates steady and the RBA likely to raise rates, the interest rate differential remained in favor of the Aussies.

The Aussie is surging overnight, having already overtaken 50% of the recent break while putting itself in a position to test the .618 price at .9291. Regaining a pair of uptrending Gann angles is also a bullish sign, but this market still has to take out the swing top at .9337 in order to signal a change in trend. At this time, the current rally may only be short-covering and position evening ahead of next month’s RBA meeting.

The NZD USD is trading higher this morning on increased demand for higher risk assets. Late yesterday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 2.50% while releasing a statement which said it expects to be removing stimulus in the coming months provided the economy continues to grow. Traders had been expecting a more hawkish statement, but nonetheless are supporting the Kiwi this morning. Today’s rally is being led by speculation that the RBNZ will raise rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve.



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