Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 April 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3280
level and was supported around the $1.3185 level. Traders
continue to lift the common currency higher on the premise that much-needed
financial aid will be released to Greece sooner rather than later.European Central Bank President Trichet today
urged German legislators to approve Greece‚Äôs request for funds under a joint
financial rescue package being offered by the European Union and International
Monetary Fund.Trichet noted a ‚Äústrong
sense of direction‚ÄĚ is required so that contagion can be avoided.A timetable for disbursement of funds to
Greece could be released as early as next week.A European Union official said a final plan on the initial ‚ā¨45 billion
bailout plan could be reached ‚Äúin days‚ÄĚ while German finance minister Schaeuble
said it is not yet certain that an agreement would be reached and called on
Greece to implement a budget consolidation.Traders are also monitoring the situation in Spain and Portugal, two
eurozone countries that had their credit ratings downgraded and may require
their own financial assistance packages.Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 March money supply
off 0.1% y/y while the April business climate indicator improved to +0.23 from
the revised prior print of -0.20.Additionally, EMU-16 industrial confidence, economic confidence, and
services confidence all improved this month.The EMU-16 March unemployment rate and April consumer price inflation
data will be released tomorrow.Additionally,
Germany‚Äôs unemployment roll fell by 68,000 in April with the unemployment rate
reaching 7.8% from the prior reading of 8.0%.In U.S. news, the Chicago Fed‚Äôs
National Activity Index improved to -0.07 from the revised prior reading of
-0.44.Also, weekly initial jobless
claims fell to +448,000 from the revised prior reading of +459,000 and
continuing jobless claims fell to 4.645 million.Q1 GDP data will be released tomorrow along
with University of Michigan consumer sentiment data.President Obama nominated Janet Yellen to
become the new Fed Vice Chairman and also nomated Peter Diamond and Sarah Bloom
Raskin to become Fed Governors.The Fed
yesterday voted to keep monetary policy unchanged.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•94.15 level and was supported around
the ¬•93.85 level. Nikkei reported
Bank of Japan will forecast consumer price inflation of +0.2% in fiscal year
2011, following three years of declines.BoJ‚Äôs Policy Board will release its interest rate decision overnight and
is not expected to change monetary policy at this time, though it may upgrade
its forecasts for economic and inflation growth.It was also announced that the balance of
commercial paper held by the central bank is expected to reach zero for the
first time in nearly nineteen months after having once reached ¬•4 trillion.Japanese financial markets were closed
overnight for the Golden Week holidays.Many data will be released overnight including April PMI manufacturing,
March household spending, March jobless data, consumer price inflation, and
March industrial production.The Nikkei
225 stock index lost 2.57% yesterday to close at ¬•10,924.79.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85
level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested offers around the ¬•124.85 level and was supported around the ¬•123.75
level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested
offers around the ¬•143.80 level while the
Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•87.00
figure. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar appreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8260 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8254. China reduced its quota for short-term
overseas borrowing this year to US$ 32.4 billion, 1.5% less than last year‚Äôs
pace on account of yuan appreciation.People‚Äôs
Bank of China is expected to revalue its yuan currency at any time.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested
offers around the US$ 1.5285 level and was supported around the $1.5140 level.Cable shook off market chatter that the
ratings agencies may downgrade the U.K. on account of its worsening financial
position.Data released in the U.K. overnight
saw April Nationwide housing prices up 1% m/m and 10.5% y/y.The April GfK consumer confidence survey will
be released tonight.Prime Minister
Brown, the Tories‚Äô Cameron, and the Liberal Democrat‚Äôs Clegg held their last
debate today and it appears increasingly likely Labour will lose its grip on
power.Cable bids are cited around the
US$ 1.5030 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested
bids around the ¬£0.8670 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8730 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested
bids around the CHF 1.0805 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0870 level.The April KOF Swiss leading indicator for
April will be released tomorrow. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0930 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4350 level while the British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.6540 level.
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