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Friday April 30, 2010 - 02:42:52 GMT
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Euro Gains Ground; Greece close to Multiyear Rescue Package

The Euro closed higher as traders became more optimistic that a multiyear rescue package agreement would soon be reached between Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.


The EUR USD traded higher throughout the day but traders remained cautious about the long side. Although the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are working out a loan bailout agreement, traders are likely to remain skeptical about the Euro until the details of the plan are revealed. News was also circulating that Moody’s Investors Services was preparing to lower Greece’s debt rating several notches.


Technically, the Euro made a closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday. On Thursday on bottom was confirmed with a follow-through rally. The charts indicate that a 2 to 3 day rally is possible with 1.3402 to 1.3471 the next likely upside target.


Despite this renewed optimism about Greece, traders should remember that the Euro remains vulnerable amid tensions regarding Spain, Portugal and Ireland.


An easing of tensions regarding Greece and a different attitude toward the possibility of a hung parliament helped drive the GBP USD higher. Although election pools are indicating no clear winner emerging, investors are speculating that the U.K. may still be able to tackle its deficit problem without a majority. Speculators are supporting the market after building a case that the Liberal Democrats may be able to shift the power in case of a hung parliament. Many traders believe this party will take an aggressive approach toward balancing the budget.


Technically, the British Pound turned the main trend down on the daily chart on Wednesday. Thursday’s action looks more like a retracement of the recent break rather than a change in trend. By the close, the Sterling was trading inside of a retracement zone at 1.5310 to 1.5354.


Investors will be watching tonight’s televised debate closely to see if one candidate emerges as the clear leader. During the debate between British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Conservative leader David Cameron and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, traders will be listening to hear which candidate has the best ideas for the U.K.’s economic policy. Traders want to hear a concrete plan to shore up the U.K. deficit problem.  Traders should watch for volatility tonight.


Despite the strong U.S. equity markets, the USD JPY finished flat. The expectation is for the Yen to weaken over the near-term due to greater demand for higher risk assets and Japan’s huge budget deficit. Traders may be pricing in the possibility that Japanese debt may downgraded.


The USD CAD weakened from the onset on Thursday, driven by greater demand for higher risk assets. Wednesday’s Fed FOMC policy statement also helped to boost the Canadian Dollar. The Fed said it would keep interest rates low for “an extended period” while the Bank of Canada is leaning toward hiking interest rates sooner than expected. The widening interest rate differential made the Canadian Dollar a more attractive investment.


About mid-session, the USD CAD pared some of its earlier losses after BoC Governor Mark Carney said a strong Canadian Dollar may have impact on inflation or monetary policy. A strong currency tends to flatten inflation while reducing foreign demand for Canadian exports. By the close, the Canadian Dollar was able to finish higher, but a little off its lows. Institutions have been supporting the USD CAD the last two times it traded under parity, if they pull their bids the next time down, look for an acceleration to the downside. Aggressive traders have to be careful about shorting into parity.


The AUD USD continued its rally on Thursday following Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom. Although the up move looks impressive, no change in trend has been signaled. In fact, the entire move has amounted to a .618 retracement of the .9387 to .9135 range. Traders bought the Aussie aggressively starting on Wednesday after the Fed announced that interest rates would remain low for “an extended period”. Thursday’s rally was a combination of a widening interest rate spread and demand for higher yielding assets.


Today’s action looked like a position adjustment day. In other words, investors are not sure what the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to due at its next meeting so they squared up their short positions after the market became oversold earlier in the week. Earlier in the month a worse than expected mortgage approvals report signaled the RBA would leave rates unchanged. This week’s better than expected inflation report was an indication that rates would be hiked.


Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart following a series of lower tops and lower bottoms. Downtrending Gann angle resistance comes in at .9317. The trend changes to up on a trade through .9337.


The New Zealand Dollar closed near its high for the day. The outlook for higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand helped to boost the NZD USD throughout the day. Following Wednesday’s assessment by the Fed that interest rates would remain low, traders is now beginning to price in the possibility that the RBNZ is likely to raise interest rates before the Fed.


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