Euro Gains Ground; Greece close to Multiyear Rescue Package
The Euro closed higher as traders became more optimistic
that a multiyear rescue package agreement would soon be reached between Greece, the
European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
The EUR USD traded higher throughout the day but traders
remained cautious about the long side. Although the European Union and the
International Monetary Fund are working out a loan bailout agreement, traders
are likely to remain skeptical about the Euro until the details of the plan are
revealed. News was also circulating that Moodyâ€™s Investors Services was
preparing to lower Greeceâ€™s
debt rating several notches.
Technically, the Euro made a closing price reversal bottom on
Wednesday. On Thursday on bottom was confirmed with a follow-through rally. The
charts indicate that a 2 to 3 day rally is possible with 1.3402 to 1.3471 the
next likely upside target.
Despite this renewed optimism about Greece, traders should remember that the Euro
remains vulnerable amid tensions regarding Spain,
Portugal and Ireland.
An easing of tensions regarding Greece and a different attitude
toward the possibility of a hung parliament helped drive the GBP USD higher.
Although election pools are indicating no clear winner emerging, investors are
speculating that the U.K.
may still be able to tackle its deficit problem without a majority. Speculators
are supporting the market after building a case that the Liberal Democrats may
be able to shift the power in case of a hung parliament. Many traders believe
this party will take an aggressive approach toward balancing the budget.
Technically, the British Pound turned the main trend down on
the daily chart on Wednesday. Thursdayâ€™s action looks more like a retracement
of the recent break rather than a change in trend. By the close, the Sterling was trading
inside of a retracement zone at 1.5310 to 1.5354.
Investors will be watching tonightâ€™s televised debate
closely to see if one candidate emerges as the clear leader. During the debate
between British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Conservative leader David Cameron
and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, traders will be listening to hear which
candidate has the best ideas for the U.K.â€™s economic policy. Traders
want to hear a concrete plan to shore up the U.K. deficit problem.Traders should watch for volatility tonight.
Despite the strong U.S. equity markets, the USD JPY finished
flat. The expectation is for the Yen to weaken over the near-term due to
greater demand for higher risk assets and Japanâ€™s huge budget deficit.
Traders may be pricing in the possibility that Japanese debt may downgraded.
The USD CAD weakened from the onset on Thursday, driven by
greater demand for higher risk assets. Wednesdayâ€™s Fed FOMC policy statement
also helped to boost the Canadian Dollar. The Fed said it would keep interest
rates low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť while the Bank of Canada is leaning toward
hiking interest rates sooner than expected. The widening interest rate
differential made the Canadian Dollar a more attractive investment.
About mid-session, the USD CAD pared some of its earlier
losses after BoC Governor Mark Carney said a strong Canadian Dollar may have
impact on inflation or monetary policy. A strong currency tends to flatten
inflation while reducing foreign demand for Canadian exports. By the close, the
Canadian Dollar was able to finish higher, but a little off its lows.
Institutions have been supporting the USD CAD the last two times it traded
under parity, if they pull their bids the next time down, look for an
acceleration to the downside. Aggressive traders have to be careful about
shorting into parity.
The AUD USD continued its rally on Thursday following
Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. Although the up move looks impressive,
no change in trend has been signaled. In fact, the entire move has amounted to
a .618 retracement of the .9387 to .9135 range. Traders bought the Aussie
aggressively starting on Wednesday after the Fed announced that interest rates
would remain low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť. Thursdayâ€™s rally was a combination
of a widening interest rate spread and demand for higher yielding assets.
Todayâ€™s action looked like a position adjustment day. In
other words, investors are not sure what the Reserve Bank of Australia is going
to due at its next meeting so they squared up their short positions after the
market became oversold earlier in the week. Earlier in the month a worse than
expected mortgage approvals report signaled the RBA would leave rates
unchanged. This weekâ€™s better than expected inflation report was an indication
that rates would be hiked.
Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart
following a series of lower tops and lower bottoms. Downtrending Gann angle
resistance comes in at .9317. The trend changes to up on a trade through .9337.
The New Zealand Dollar closed near its high for the day. The
outlook for higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
helped to boost the NZD USD throughout the day. Following Wednesdayâ€™s assessment
by the Fed that interest rates would remain low, traders is now beginning to
price in the possibility that the RBNZ is likely to raise interest rates before
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Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
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15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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