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Friday April 30, 2010 - 02:43:59 GMT
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Gold giving Mixed Signals; Weak Dollar fails to Generate Long Interest

June Gold struggled throughout the trading session despite the weaker Dollar. Traders seemed to be adjusting their long positions now that it appears the demise of the Euro has been overstated. Earlier in the week, speculators drove up gold as they hedged against the possibility of a of a Euro collapse.

 

Gold traders may attempt to hold gold high in the recent trading range until the Greek resolution is reached. Furthermore, traders may be holding gold up because financial problems still linger in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. A weaker Dollar is likely to also underpin gold. In summary, it looks as if it is going to take a lot of fundamental factors to weaken gold.

 

U.S. equities rallied sharply higher on optimism that a Greek bailout package will be worked out soon. In addition, Wednesday’s Fed policy statement said that interest rates would remain low for “an extended period”. Both of these factors helping to erase losses from earlier in the week while driving up demand for higher risk assets.

 

Technically, the June E-mini S&P main trend is down, but the ability to regain a short-term retracement zone at 1196.75 to 1201.50 indicates that further upside movement is likely. A break back under 1196.75 will be a sign of weakness.

 

The closing price reversal top from earlier in the week is still intact until 1216.75 is violated. Until this occurs, there still exists the possibility of a secondary lower top.

 

June Treasury Bonds rallied into the close after the government finished another round of debt auctions. The Treasury’s sale of $32 billion, seven-year notes was met with enthusiasm. Yields were kept low most likely because of the lingering problems in Greece. Now that the auctions are over, traders will turn their focus once again on the sovereign debt situation in Greece. If risk stabilizes, then look for T-Bonds to mount another strong rally. If Greece, the IMF and the EU are able to hammer out a 3-year deal then T-Bonds are likely to break.

 

The weaker Dollar and stronger Euro helped to drive June Crude Oil sharply higher. The strong rally has this market in a position to change the main trend to up on a move through 85.63. Speculators are looking for the stabilization of Europe to drive up demand for crude oil.  As long as the debt situation remains stable, then crude oil traders will look for signs of a global economic recovery to drive prices higher.

 

The Euro closed higher as traders became more optimistic that a multiyear rescue package agreement would soon be reached between Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

 

The June Euro traded higher throughout the day but traders remained cautious about the long side. Although the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are working out a loan bailout agreement, traders are likely to remain skeptical about the Euro until the details of the plan are revealed. News was also circulating that Moody’s Investors Services was preparing to lower Greece’s debt rating several notches.

 

Technically, the Euro made a closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday. On Thursday on bottom was confirmed with a follow-through rally. The charts indicate that a 2 to 3 day rally is possible with 1.3402 to 1.3471 the next likely upside target.

 

Despite this renewed optimism about Greece, traders should remember that the Euro remains vulnerable amid tensions regarding Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

 

An easing of tensions regarding Greece and a different attitude toward the possibility of a hung parliament helped drive the June British Pound higher. Although election pools are indicating no clear winner emerging, investors are speculating that the U.K. may still be able to tackle its deficit problem without a majority. Speculators are supporting the market after building a case that the Liberal Democrats may be able to shift the power in case of a hung parliament. Many traders believe this party will take an aggressive approach toward balancing the budget.

 

Technically, the British Pound turned the main trend down on the daily chart on Wednesday. Thursday’s action looks more like a retracement of the recent break rather than a change in trend. By the close, the Sterling was trading inside of a retracement zone at 1.5310 to 1.5354.

 

Investors will be watching tonight’s televised debate closely to see if one candidate emerges as the clear leader. During the debate between British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Conservative leader David Cameron and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, traders will be listening to hear which candidate has the best ideas for the U.K.’s economic policy. Traders want to hear a concrete plan to shore up the U.K. deficit problem.  Traders should watch for volatility tonight.

 

Despite the strong U.S. equity markets, the June Japanese Yen finished flat. The expectation is for the Yen to weaken over the near-term due to greater demand for higher risk assets and Japan’s huge budget deficit. Traders may be pricing in the possibility that Japanese debt may downgraded.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was strong from the onset on Thursday, driven by greater demand for higher risk assets. Wednesday’s Fed FOMC policy statement also helped to boost the Canadian Dollar. The Fed said it would keep interest rates low for “an extended period” while the Bank of Canada is leaning toward hiking interest rates sooner than expected. The widening interest rate differential made the Canadian Dollar a more attractive investment.

 

About mid-session, the Canadian Dollar pared some of its earlier gains after BoC Governor Mark Carney said a strong Canadian Dollar may have impact on inflation or monetary policy. A strong currency tends to flatten inflation while reducing foreign demand for Canadian exports. By the close, the Canadian Dollar was able to finish higher, but a little off its lows. Institutions have been shorting the Canadian Dollar the last two times it traded over parity, if they pull their offers the next time up, look for an acceleration to the upside. Aggressive traders have to be careful about buying into parity.

 

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