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Friday April 30, 2010 - 09:39:25 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Rebalancing Weight on USD?

 

The Daily Forex View


Rebalancing Weight on USD?

10:00 GMT- Apr 30 (global-view.com) Month-end rebalancing flows are in the cross-hairs today and they are expected to have a negative USD bias. Those looking beyond the technicalities of the day are watching Greece. Assuming the Greek government approves its latest austerity package over the weekend, the German Bundestag (Lower House) will take up the Greek aid package next week. Once it is approved it will go the Bundesrat (Upper House) and hopefully be approved by the Friday close. The point is that Greece should be on the news all week. Parenthetically, the Merkel strategy to postpone action on Greece until after the North Rhine Westphalia elections on May 9 has been a failure. Her party opponents and even her candidate have criticized the government for dragging out the crisis. 

For what its worth, we are hearing the strategy of many in the markets is to wait for a post-approval rally in the EURUSD to sell. Some technicians are targeting 1.2950, then 1.2400, and then 1.2000 in the EURUSD.  

Looking ahead, analysts are saying they expect a divergence to develop in ECB an Fed policy over time with ECB hands tied as it addresses the economic struggles of peripheral European economies as the Fed acts to remove excess liquidity and starts to tighten. The Bank of Japan kept policy steady today as expected, but obce again took an upbeat posture on the economy.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:30
EUR 1.3311 68 JPY 125.68 109 JPY 145.03 69
GBP 1.5360 18 GBP 86.66 34 CHF 165.47 -56
CHF 1.0773 -49 CHF 1.4340 8 CHF vs.    
JPY 94.42 34       JPY 87.65 71

The EURUSD is higher on the day. The GBPUSD is better, while the EURGBP is sup. The Greek bailout plan continues to evolve and there still are many parts to the puzzle. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on the Greek credit default swaps.

In the GBP, traders are focused on the May 6 U.K. election.  Tory candidate Cameron reportedly won the final debate (on the economy) last night. GBP dealers have been watching election headlines. PM Brown a couple of days ago might have made a fatal pre-election gaffe. Polls suggest the odds for a hung Parliament are high. Traders say this is a worst case scenario. If no party wins a clear majority, difficult decisions could be deferred. The uncertainty has the GBP in play.

Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is trading steady. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is higher and the EURJPY cross is higher. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:30
CAD 1.0046 -4 AUD 0.9313 27 Gold 1175 8.49
CNY 6.8261 -8 NZD 0.7282 42 WTI 85.96 0.35

The risk trade has been back on in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). All three are higher, as the trio are seen as an anti-EUR trade. Bank of Canada interest rates could be hiked as early as June 1. Monetary officials have no concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are up. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.

Far East equities closed higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.74%, 0 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:30
NIK 11057 133 DAX 6187 42 DJIA 11167 0
HSI 21109 330 FTSE 5624 6 S&P 1207 0
SSEC 2871 3 SMI 6661 0 NAS 2512 0
ASX 4807 22       TSE 12200 123

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, U.S. and Canadian GDP data are highlights. Canada will also release its latest PPI report. The U.S. will see the Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. Note Monday will be holidays in Japan and the U.K.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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