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Friday April 30, 2010 - 10:17:29 GMT
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European Market Update: Optimism rising on Greek aid package

Friday, April 30, 2010 5:55:00 AM

 European Market Update: Optimism rising on Greek aid package


- (FI) Finland Feb Final Trade Balance: -€70M v -€40M prior
- (FR) France Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v -3.6%e
- (SP) Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate: 20.05% v 19.8%e
- (TU) Turkey Mar Trade Balance (TRY): -5.0B v -3.9Be
- (NO) Norway Apr Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (TH) Thailand Mar Current Account Balance: $1.7B v $1.7Be; Overall Trade Balance: $3.1B v $119M prior; Total Trade Balance: $1.1B v $452M prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 32.6% v 26.0%e; Total Capacity utilization: 74.2% v 65.4% prior
- (TH) Thailand Mar Business Sentiment: 55.7 v 51.3 prior
- (NO) Norway Mar Credit indicator growth Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.2%e
- (IT) Italy Mar PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e
- (SP) Spain Feb Current Account (EUR): -€6.6B v -6.5B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Gov't Budget (HKD): -21.1B v -0.9B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.8 v 10.7% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: 10.0% v 10.0%e

- (IC) Iceland Mar Final Trade Balance (ISK): 11.5B v 11.4B prior
- (IT) Italy Mar CPI (incl Tobacco)M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (IT) Italy Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4%e
- (SZ) Swiss Apr KOF Leading Indicator: 1.99 v 1.99e
- (GR) Greece Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.5% v 8.3% prior

- Equities: European equities opened Friday mostly higher on hopes that a rescue plan for Greece could be revealed by as soon as this weekend, as evidenced by the sharp rally being seen in Greek banking shares. As of 5:50 EST, indices have moved off of their best levels, with the FTSE 100 index moving into negative territory. In US equities, S&P 500 Futures traded lower in Asia following a report in the Wall Street Journal that US federal prosecutors were conducting an early stage criminal probe of Goldman Sachs' mortgage trading activities. However, the WSJ said prosecutors had not determined whether they would bring charges in the case. Later, S&P 500 futures rebounded and traded into positive territory on the initial positive cues from European equities. The European corporate earnings session was headlined by UK bank Barclays, whose shares declined by more than 3% following its Q1 update.

In individual stocks: Metro AG [ MEO.GE] reported Net loss €36M v loss €36Me, Adj EBIT €136M v €128Me, Rev €15.5B v €15Be y/y: Confirms 2010 outlook with FY10 sales and FY10 Adj EBITDA above prior year || Total [FP.FR] reported Q1 Adj Net €2.3B v €2.4Be, Rev €37.6B v €35Be: growth in its upstream segment to continue. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Reported Q1 Net before op expenses £6.56B v £5.4B y/y. || Strabag [STR.AS] Reported FY09 Net profit €161M v €161Me, EBIT €283M v €271Me, Rev €12.6B v €13.74B: Confirms FY10 outlook of stable output volume and margins. || Rentokil [RTO.UK] Reported Q1 Pretax £30.4M v £21.6M y/y, Rev £607.3M v £626.7M y/y; targeting moderate growth in 2010. || Colt UK [COLT.UK]: Reported Q1 EBITDA €77.4M v €80Me, Rev €396M v €400Me; expect customer decision making to accelerate over the coming months, which in turn will reflect increasingly in our results in the second half of 2010 and 2011. || WPP Group [WPP.UK]: Reported Q1 Rev £2.08B v £2Be; Too early to say whether stabilization in Q1 and growth in Mar are sustainable. || Saipem [SPM.IT] won 3 Abu Dhabi Contracts valued at $3.5B

- Speakers: Portugal Main Opposition Party (PSD) stated that it would back austerity measures in Parliament and proposed measures to the Prime Minister to lower 2010 budget deficit to 7.3% of GDP from 8.3% target ***Irish Debt Agency (NTMA) Bond sale would be cancelled if market conditions remained adverse. The agency stated that it was not concerned if debt sale was cancelled as 60% of 2010 issuance had been completed ***German's Handelsblatt reporting that Germany might put pressure on banks to buy Greek bonds after joint EU/IMF bailout package for Greece has been made final.*** German Finance Min commented that there has been no talks about Greek bond restructuring and noted that Europe must act to prevent any danger of contagion. He reiterated that the law in Germany on Greece aid can be "wrapped up" within a week. No one was blocking banks to participate in effort and one cannot compare Greece situation to prior crisis in Argentina. Lastly he stated that he did not expect aid to Greece to hurt Germany's budget
*** ECB's Nowotny commented that it was wrong to expect Germany to curb its exports. On the peripherals he believed that Greece could turn around its situation but political will was a precondition. He reiterated the view that Portugal cannot be compared to Greece ***BoJ Gov Shirakawa commented that there was no need for further easing at the time as the effect of BOJ credit easing would intensify in coming period. He noted that Japan was moving towards end of deflation aided by the narrower output gap and that the gradual price rise in commodities would filter through to CPI. He stated that Japan should make efforts to reduce public debt when economy stabilized and watch if Greek debt issue would impact economy and markets. *** China Banking Chief commented that sovereign debt concerns were continuing to rise in Western countries. He reiterated that it was becoming more difficult to manage local inflationary pressures and that domestic banks were facing more uncertainties. He did take noted of rising risks in the property sector and local government financing. *** SNB Hildebrand stated that the central bank was acting decisively to prevent an excessive CHF rise but that the deflation danger in Switzerland had fallen. Market concerns over Eurozone debt posed considerable risk to SNB's inflation outlook but according to inflationary forecasts, policy can stay expansionary for now ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The likely imminent EU/IMF Greek aid package prompted rising risk appetite as the month of April came to a close which softened both the USD and JPY currencies against the major European and commodity pairs. Gold moved back above $1175 while NYMEX crude futures drifted back towards $86/barrel. The EUR/USD moved above the 1.33 handle as market participants expected full details of the Greek aid package to be released over the weekend. The implementation phase of European austerity measures likely to simmer with numerous Greek unions to protests against the government's to take place on May5th.

Geopolitical: In round three of UK televised electoral debate, a poll from Guardian/ICM shows that that Conservative Candidate Cameron was the winner. In fact 33% of those polled said Cameron won, 29% said Labour's Brown won and 27% said Liberal Democrat Clegg won. Prior polls the winner of the second debate was Cameron and Clegg won the first debate. According to Website, there is a 82% probability that the Conservatives could win next UK General Election. *** Despite higher than expected economic numbers from Thailand, the escalating political protests in the country have already hurt the GDP by 0.5% according to the Finance Minister. It could further impact the GDP by 1% if protests continue throughout 2010.

- European equities move into negative territory ahead of the NY morning
- Germany expects EU/IMF agreement with Greece to be reached this weekend; FT reported that Greece agreed to €24B austerity package
- EU's Barroso: China remains confident in the Euro currency

***Looking Ahead***
- US GDP data to be the focus
- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Mar Trade Balance (ZAR): -2.5Be v -5.7B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Raw Material Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 0.4% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Advanced GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.3%e v 5.6% prior; Personal Consumption: 3.3%e v 1.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q1 Advanced GDP Price Index: 0.9%e v 0.5% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.5%e v 1.8% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q1 Employment Cost Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 9:00 (CL) Chile Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.9%e v 8.5% prior
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No ext v -0.8% prior
- (BE) Belgium Mar Budget Balance YTD: No est v -4.8B prior
- 9:15 (US) Tsy Krueger on economic growth panel
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Nominal Budget Balance (BRL) -9.1Be v -13.3B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 5.0Be v 0.9B prior; Net Debt to GDP: 42.1%e v 42.1% prior
- 9:45 (US) Apr Chicago Purchasing Manager: 60.0e v 58.8 prior
- 9:55 (US) Apr Final University of Michigan: 71.0e v 69.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr NAPM Milwaukee: No est v 62.0 prior
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Unemployment Rate: 13.0%e v 13.4% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Mar Budget balance YTD (MXN): No est v 22.9B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: expected to maintain the Overnight lending Rate at 3.50%
- 21:00 (CH) China Apr PMI Manufacturing: 55.9e v 55.1 prior



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