The GBP USD strengthened overnight after opinion polls
showed the Conservative Party won last nightâ€™s debate in the U.K. This news boosted the British
Pound because it diminished the chances of a hung parliament.
Technically, the British Pound turned the main trend down on
the daily chart on Wednesday. Thursdayâ€™s action looked more like a retracement
of the recent break rather than a change in trend. The key to higher markets
will be whether the Pound can trade through the retracement zone at 1.5310 to
The EUR USD is moving higher as traders are more optimistic
that a multiyear rescue package agreement would soon be reached between Greece, the
European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Traders remain cautious about the long side, however,
because sovereign debt problems similar to Greeceâ€™s
can flare up in Spain, Portugal or Ireland. Although the European
Union and the International Monetary Fund are working out a loan bailout
agreement, traders are likely to remain skeptical about the Euro until the
details of the plan are revealed. News is also circulating that Moodyâ€™s
Investors Services was preparing to lower Greeceâ€™s debt rating several
Technically, the charts indicate that a rally to 1.3402 to
1.3471 is likely over the next day or two.
Stronger demand for riskier assets is helping to drive the USD
JPY higher. Expectations are for the Yen to weaken over the near-term due to
greater demand for higher risk assets and Japanâ€™s huge budget deficit.
Traders may also be pricing in the possibility that Japanese debt may
downgraded. Upside momentum could return today which will drive this market to
the April high at 94.77.
The USD CAD is holding flat overnight. Despite higher
equity, gold and crude oil prices, traders are a little nervous today about the
long side after BoC Governor Mark Carney said a strong Canadian Dollar may have
impact on inflation or monetary policy. A strong currency tends to flatten
inflation while reducing foreign demand for Canadian exports.
Institutions have been buying the USD CAD the last two times
it traded under parity, if they pull their bids the next time down, look for an
acceleration to the downside.Aggressive
traders have to be careful about buying into parity.
The AUD USD is trading higher overnight as traders increase
their bets for an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia on
May 4th. The recent report showing a doubling of inflation during the last
quarter may be deciding factor for the policymakers.
Technically, the Aussie should encounter some Gann angle
resistance at .9317. Overcoming this angle should set up a further rally to the
swing top at .9337. Although taking out this price will officially turn the
main trend to up, a move through the angle will generate a similar signal.
The NZD USD continues to accelerate to the upside as traders
anticipate an interest rate hike sooner than previously expected. Although the
next Reserve Bank of New
Zealand meeting isnâ€™t until June 9th,
traders believe the RBNZ will increase rates before the Fed.
Technically, this market is in breakout mode with nothing in
the way to stop the rally. New support has been established at .7199.
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