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Friday April 30, 2010 - 18:46:52 GMT
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Equity Market Break Weakens AUD USD

A hard break in U.S. equity markets this morning is helping to weaken the AUD USD. After testing a downtrending Gann angle at .9317 early in the session, the Aussie began to weaken when stock indices failed to follow-through to the upside.

The Aussie was boosted overnight on increased appetite for risk and the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its next meeting on May 4th. Since reaching a four-week low earlier in the week at .9135, the Australian Dollar has gone on a tear, retracing in two-days a break which took eleven days to form.

Earlier in the month, prospects for a May interest rate hike were diminished following a report stating that mortgage approvals had declined. This led traders to believe that the RBA would skip an interest rate hike at its next session. The subsequent break from the high at .9387 was a further indication that a bearish pall was being cast on the Aussie.

After the top was formed on April 12th, the market proceeded to zig-zag its way down to .9135 on April 27th. Although the initial move was triggered by the weak mortgage approvals report, the final low was set-up by risk fears during the height of the Greek fiscal crisis.

The recent bottom at .9135 was fueled by a report that inflation had doubled during the last quarter. This reignited thoughts that the RBA would have to hike interest rates once again in order to combat the effects of high inflation.

On Thursday, the AUD USD tested the retracement zone of the .9387 to .9135 range at .9261 to .9291. After a slight penetration of this zone overnight, the Aussie met resistance at a slow-moving downtrending Gann angle at .9317. This angle has held on two previous attempts to breakout above it to the upside.

At the mid-session, lower demand for higher risk assets combined with selling pressure following the test of resistance are putting pressure on the Aussie. The daily chart indicates the possibility of a minor closing price reversal top. Furthermore, traders are watching .9261 very carefully. A break through this level late in the trading session could trigger an acceleration to the downside.

At the mid-session, the EUR USD is up but well off its high. Although the EU feels that a bailout agreement with Greece will be reached this week-end. Some traders feel that there is too much risk to hold a long position until Monday. Most traders feel that more downside risk exists in the Euro because of lingering problems in the Euro Zone with Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

After an initial surge to the upside overnight, the GBP USD is trading lower. Traders were buying in response to the strong showing at the debate by the Conservative Party. Some traders feel that the emergence of a leader less than a week before the May 6th election will reduce the possibility of a hung parliament.

The British Pound began to weaken following the release of the U.S. GDP report. Although this report showed the economy had expanded by 3.2%, it fell short of the expected retracement of 3.3%.

Another victim of the drop in appetite for higher risk assets is the Canadian Dollar. Today’s rally in the USD CAD was triggered by Thursday’s comments from the Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney. In what is amounting to a “verbal intervention”, Carney said that the high priced currency could have an impact on inflation and monetary policy. The USD CAD stopped going down on his commentary, indicating that the BoC may be in the market attempting to curtail the Canadian Dollar’s advance.

Technically, the USD CAD is threatening to breakout to the upside. Downtrending Gann angle resistance at 1.0177 is being tested at the mid-session. A breakout over this angle is likely to trigger an acceleration to the last main top at 1.0215. A move through this price changes the main trend to up on the daily chart.


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