Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (30 April 2010)
The euro appreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested offers
around the US$ 1.3340 level and was supported around the $1.3225 level. Risk
appetite returned today with traders speculating German politicians will
approve a financial rescue package for Greece, a country that will need an
estimated ‚ā¨120 billion over the next three years.Dealers also moved into higher-yielding
assets following strong quarterly corporate earnings reports.Many data were released in the U.S.
today.First, Q1 gross domestic product
growth came in at an annualized +3.2%, down from the prior reading of
+5.6%.Second, the April Chicago
purchasing manager index improved to 63.8 from the prior reading of 58.8.Third, final April University of Michigan
consumer sentiment printed at 72.2, up from the prior reading of 69.5.Notably, personal consumption expanded 3.6%,
up from the prior reading of 1.6%.Economists
are still talking about the Obama administration‚Äôs decision to nominate three
apparent monetary doves to the Federal Reserve Board and its impact on policy
and the U.S. dollar.In eurozone news, EMU-16 April consumer
price inflation printed at 1.5% y/y while the March EMU-16 unemployment rate
printed at 10.0%.Also, French March
consumer prices were up 0.6% m/m and 2.0% y/y.Eurozone finance ministers are likely to convene on Sunday to discuss
Greece‚Äôs situation.Euro bids are
cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•94.60 level and was supported around
the ¬•93.90 level. Bank of Japan kept
monetary policy unchanged overnight and reported it will help lenders provide
credit, possibly using methods from 1998-1999 when lenders gave cash to lenders
to address the credit squeeze.The
headline overnight unsecured call rate target remains at 0.1%. BoJ Governor
Shirakawa directed the central bank to stimulate lending ‚Äúwith a view to
strengthening the foundations for economic growth.‚ÄĚ He added ‚ÄúThe government is
also trying to map out an economic growth strategy, and the Bank of Japan hopes
to give a boost to such efforts with new policy measures.‚ÄĚ Many data were
released in Japan overnight.First,
April manufacturing PMI improved to 53.5 from 52.4.Second, March overall household spending grew
4.4% y/y, up from the prior reading of 0.5% y/y.Third, the March jobless rate ticked higher
to 5.0% from the prior reading of 4.9%.Fourth, April Tokyo-area consumer price inflation was off 1.5% y/y at
the headline level, up from the revised prior reading of -1.7%.The April ex-food and energy component was
off 1.4%, lower than the prior reading of -1.2%.Fifth, March national consumer price
inflation was off 1.1% y/y at the headline and ex-food and energy levels.Sixth, March industrial production was up
0.3% m/m and 30.7% y/y.Seventh, March
labour cash earnings were up 0.8% y/y, up from the prior reading of -0.7% y/y.
Eighth, March housing starts improved to -2.4% y/y with annualized housing
starts printing at 854,000.Ninth, March
construction orders were up 42.3% y/y. Collectively, today‚Äôs data evidence an
improving economy that is mired in a deflationary spiral and the central bank‚Äôs
enhanced rhetoric today reflects that dichotomy.The new forecast for inflation suggests
deflation will end during the next fiscal year with CPI at +0.1%.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.21% to
close at ¬•11,057.40.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•125.95 level and was supported
around the ¬•124.30 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•145.20 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•87.85 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan
as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8253 in the over-the-counter market, down from
CNY 6.8260. China yesterday reduced its
quota for short-term overseas borrowing this year to US$ 32.4 billion, 1.5%
less than last year‚Äôs pace on account of yuan appreciation.People‚Äôs Bank of China is expected to revalue
its yuan currency at any time.Data to
be released in China tonight include April PMI manufacturing.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5280 level and was capped around the $1.5390 level.Data released in the U.K. today saw April GfK
consumer confidence worsen to -16 from the prior reading of -15.The Tories‚Äô candidate, David Cameron, won
yesterday‚Äôs final debate against Liberal Democratic candidate Clegg and Labour‚Äôs
Prime Minister Brown.The General
Election will take place on 6 May and Cameron is expected to win but Parliament
may be hung.Cable bids are cited around
the US$ 1.5030 level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8625 level and
was capped around the ¬£0.8725 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested
bids around the CHF 1.0745 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0845 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the
April KOF Swiss leading indicator improve to 1.99 from the prior revised
reading of 1.96.Swiss National Bank
President Hildebrand said the SNB will continue to counter any ‚Äúexcessive‚ÄĚ
gains of the franc, noting there would be a ‚Äúnegative impact‚ÄĚ if the franc
appreciates ‚Äúsharply due to its role as a safe haven currency.‚ÄĚHildebrand noted the SNB ‚Äúwill not allow such
a development to turn into a new deflation hazard‚ÄĚ and is ‚Äúacting decisively to
prevent an excessive appreciation.‚ÄĚHildebrand
also called on European leaders to conclude negotiations over Greece‚Äôs aid
package ‚Äúrapidly.‚ÄĚ U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0930
level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4335 level while the British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6435 level.
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