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Saturday May 1, 2010 - 02:39:35 GMT
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Euro Weekly Chart indicates Investors Still Nervous

Despite signs of a bottom on the daily chart, the Euro finished lower for the week. The daily chart is reflecting a short-covering rally; the weekly chart is indicating that investors still lack the conviction to turn the Euro into a buy.


On Friday the EUR USD closed up but well off its high. Although the EU feels that a bailout agreement with Greece will be reached this week-end. Some traders feel that there is too much risk to hold a long position until Monday. Most traders feel that more downside risk exists in the Euro because of lingering problems in the Euro Zone with Spain, Portugal and Ireland.


A hard break in U.S. equity markets Friday helped to weaken the AUD USD. After testing a downtrending Gann angle at .9317 early in the session, the Aussie began to weaken when stock indices failed to follow-through to the upside.


The Aussie was boosted overnight on increased appetite for risk and the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its next meeting on May 4th. Since reaching a four-week low earlier in the week at .9135, the Australian Dollar has gone on a tear, retracing in two-days a break which took eleven days to form.


Earlier in the month, prospects for a May interest rate hike were diminished following a report stating that mortgage approvals had declined. This led traders to believe that the RBA would skip an interest rate hike at its next session. The subsequent break from the high at .9387 was a further indication that a bearish pall was being cast on the Aussie.


After the top was formed on April 12th, the market proceeded to zig-zag its way down to .9135 on April 27th. Although the initial move was triggered by the weak mortgage approvals report, the final low was set-up by risk fears during the height of the Greek fiscal crisis.


The recent bottom at .9135 was fueled by a report that inflation had doubled during the last quarter. This reignited thoughts that the RBA would have to hike interest rates once again in order to combat the effects of high inflation. 


On Thursday, the AUD USD tested the retracement zone of the .9387 to .9135 range at .9261 to .9291. After a slight penetration of this zone overnight, the Aussie met resistance at a slow-moving downtrending Gann angle at .9317. This angle has held on two previous attempts to breakout above it to the upside.


Lower demand for higher risk assets combined with selling pressure following the test of resistance put pressure on the Aussie. The daily chart indicates the formation of a minor closing price reversal top which should put additional pressure on the Aussie early next week. If sentiment shifts away from risk next week, then it really isn’t going to matter what the RBA does. Downside pressure will resume on the Aussie. 

After an initial surge to the upside overnight, the GBP USD broke from its high. Traders were buying in response to the strong showing at the debate by the Conservative Party. Some traders felt that the emergence of a leader less than a week before the May 6th election would reduce the possibility of a hung parliament.


The British Pound began to weaken following the release of the U.S. GDP report. Although this report showed the economy had expanded by 3.2%, it fell short of the expected retracement of 3.3%.  For the week, the British Pound closed lower while changing the trend to down. Expectations are for this market to sell-off into the election with 1.5078 the next potential downside target.


Another victim of the drop in appetite for higher risk assets was the Canadian Dollar. Friday’s rally in the USD CAD was triggered by Thursday’s comments from the Bank of Canada’s Mark Carney. In what is amounting to a “verbal intervention”, Carney said that the high priced currency could have an impact on inflation and monetary policy. The USD CAD stopped going down on his commentary, indicating that the BoC may be in the market attempting to curtail the Canadian Dollar’s advance.


Technically, the USD CAD is threatening to breakout to the upside. Downtrending Gann angle resistance at 1.0177 was tested on Friday. This angle can easily be taken out on the Monday’s opening. A breakout over this angle is likely to trigger an acceleration to the last main top at 1.0215. A move through this price changes the main trend to up on the daily chart.


The USD CHF closed higher for the week after a breakout to a 10-week high. The close back below the former top at 1.0897 was triggered by the turnaround in the Euro. Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand said that Europe must find a quick settlement to Greek financial problems in order to return stability to the region. He also said “Switzerland has enormously benefited from currency stability over the past decade. It’s obvious that a threat to this stability would pose big risks.”


Hildebrand’s comments signal that the SNB remains poised to continue to intervene by selling Swiss Francs in order to defend its currency’s stability and to protect the country’s export market. This means continue to buy the USD CHF on Euro weakness.


The USD JPY closed flat for the week but lower on Friday. After an early attempt to breakout to the upside failed, the Dollar/Yen sold off sharply as the stock market deteriorated. The weak close in this pair indicates that further downside pressure is likely with 93.08 the target. Watch for weakness early next week especially since the U.S. equity markets posted major weekly closing price reversal tops. Traders are ignoring the weak Japanese economy and turning their focus on an increase in demand for lower yielding assets.


The NZD USD finished the week sharply higher despite a profit-taking break from its high on Friday. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted to leave interest rates unchanged this week, most traders believe the central bank is getting ready to begin increasing interest rates sooner than expected. In addition, it looks as if traders began reversing long Australian Dollar/short New Zealand Dollar spread.  The interest rate differential played a role in this week rally also. With the Fed stating that interest rates would remain low for “an extended period” and the RBNZ hinting that rates would rise, traders began to take advantage of the high rates in New Zealand. This week’s action indicates that investors believe the RBNZ will begin raising interest rates before the Fed.


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