Euro Weekly Chart indicates Investors Still Nervous
Despite signs of a bottom on the daily chart, the Euro
finished lower for the week. The daily chart is reflecting a short-covering
rally; the weekly chart is indicating that investors still lack the conviction
to turn the Euro into a buy.
On Friday the EUR USD closed up but well off its high.
Although the EU feels that a bailout agreement with Greece will be reached this
week-end. Some traders feel that there is too much risk to hold a long position
until Monday. Most traders feel that more downside risk exists in the Euro
because of lingering problems in the Euro Zone with Spain,
Portugal and Ireland.
A hard break in U.S. equity markets Friday helped to
weaken the AUD USD. After testing a downtrending Gann angle at .9317 early in
the session, the Aussie began to weaken when stock indices failed to
follow-through to the upside.
The Aussie was boosted overnight on increased appetite for
risk and the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia at
its next meeting on May 4th. Since reaching a four-week low earlier in the week
at .9135, the Australian Dollar has gone on a tear, retracing in two-days a
break which took eleven days to form.
Earlier in the month, prospects for a May interest rate hike
were diminished following a report stating that mortgage approvals had
declined. This led traders to believe that the RBA would skip an interest rate
hike at its next session. The subsequent break from the high at .9387 was a
further indication that a bearish pall was being cast on the Aussie.
After the top was formed on April 12th, the market proceeded
to zig-zag its way down to .9135 on April 27th. Although the initial move was
triggered by the weak mortgage approvals report, the final low was set-up by
risk fears during the height of the Greek fiscal crisis.
The recent bottom at .9135 was fueled by a report that
inflation had doubled during the last quarter. This reignited thoughts that the
RBA would have to hike interest rates once again in order to combat the effects
of high inflation.
On Thursday, the AUD USD tested the retracement zone of the
.9387 to .9135 range at .9261 to .9291. After a slight penetration of this zone
overnight, the Aussie met resistance at a slow-moving downtrending Gann angle
at .9317. This angle has held on two previous attempts to breakout above it to
Lower demand for higher risk assets combined with selling
pressure following the test of resistance put pressure on the Aussie. The daily
chart indicates the formation of a minor closing price reversal top which
should put additional pressure on the Aussie early next week. If sentiment
shifts away from risk next week, then it really isnâ€™t going to matter what the
RBA does. Downside pressure will resume on the Aussie.
After an initial surge to the upside overnight, the GBP USD broke
from its high. Traders were buying in response to the strong showing at the
debate by the Conservative Party. Some traders felt that the emergence of a
leader less than a week before the May 6th election would reduce the
possibility of a hung parliament.
The British Pound began to weaken following the release of
the U.S. GDP report. Although this report showed the economy had expanded by
3.2%, it fell short of the expected retracement of 3.3%.For the week, the British Pound closed lower
while changing the trend to down. Expectations are for this market to sell-off
into the election with 1.5078 the next potential downside target.
Another victim of the drop in appetite for higher risk
assets was the Canadian Dollar. Fridayâ€™s rally in the USD CAD was triggered by
Thursdayâ€™s comments from the Bank of Canadaâ€™s Mark Carney. In what is amounting
to a â€śverbal interventionâ€ť, Carney said that the high priced currency could
have an impact on inflation and monetary policy. The USD CAD stopped going down
on his commentary, indicating that the BoC may be in the market attempting to
curtail the Canadian Dollarâ€™s advance.
Technically, the USD CAD is threatening to breakout to the
upside. Downtrending Gann angle resistance at 1.0177 was tested on Friday. This
angle can easily be taken out on the Mondayâ€™s opening. A breakout over this
angle is likely to trigger an acceleration to the last main top at 1.0215. A
move through this price changes the main trend to up on the daily chart.
The USD CHF closed higher for the week after a breakout to a
10-week high. The close back below the former top at 1.0897 was triggered by
the turnaround in the Euro. Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand
said that Europe must find a quick settlement
to Greek financial problems in order to return stability to the region. He also
has enormously benefited from currency stability over the past decade. Itâ€™s
obvious that a threat to this stability would pose big risks.â€ť
Hildebrandâ€™s comments signal that the SNB remains poised to
continue to intervene by selling Swiss Francs in order to defend its currencyâ€™s
stability and to protect the countryâ€™s export market. This means continue to buy
the USD CHF on Euro weakness.
The USD JPY closed flat for the week but lower on Friday.
After an early attempt to breakout to the upside failed, the Dollar/Yen sold
off sharply as the stock market deteriorated. The weak close in this pair
indicates that further downside pressure is likely with 93.08 the target. Watch
for weakness early next week especially since the U.S. equity markets posted major
weekly closing price reversal tops. Traders are ignoring the weak Japanese
economy and turning their focus on an increase in demand for lower yielding
The NZD USD finished the week sharply higher despite a
profit-taking break from its high on Friday. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
voted to leave interest rates unchanged this week, most traders believe the
central bank is getting ready to begin increasing interest rates sooner than
expected. In addition, it looks as if traders began reversing long Australian
Dollar/short New Zealand
Dollar spread.The interest rate
differential played a role in this week rally also. With the Fed stating that
interest rates would remain low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť and the RBNZ hinting
that rates would rise, traders began to take advantage of the high rates in New Zealand.
This weekâ€™s action indicates that investors believe the RBNZ will begin raising
interest rates before the Fed.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.