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Monday May 3, 2010 - 09:48:12 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Active Partial Holiday Session

 

The Daily Forex View


Active Partial Holiday Session

10:00 GMT- May 3 (global-view.com) A Monday holiday in many centers today has probably been a godsend for many as it has given markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout plan today. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years from the EU and IMF and a severe domestic austerity plan domestically. Critical still for the program will be getting it through the German legislature this week and for the Greek populace to accept a severe reduction in its standard of living. As expected, the EURUSD is lower on the developments. 

Looking ahead, analysts are saying they expect a divergence to develop in ECB an Fed policy over time with ECB hands tied as it addresses the economic struggles of peripheral European economies as the Fed acts to remove excess liquidity and starts to tighten. 

Over the weekend, China announced a further tightening of monetary policy as it increased  the triple-r (reserve requirement ratio) by 50bps.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:40
EUR 1.3237 -76 JPY 124.45 -62 JPY 143.21 -64
GBP 1.5232 -79 GBP 86.90 -5 CHF 164.83 6
CHF 1.0821 60 CHF 1.4324 -2 CHF vs.    
JPY 94.02 7       JPY 86.89 -42

The EURUSD is lower. The GBPUSD is weaker, while the EURGBP is steady. The Greek bailout plan has advanced. There still a number of pieces to the puzzle. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on the Greek credit default swaps.

In the GBP, traders are focused on the May 9 U.K. election.  Tory candidate Cameron reportedly won the final debate (on the economy) Thursday. GBP dealers have been watching election headlines. PM Brown might have made a fatal pre-election gaffe. Polls suggest the odds for a hung Parliament are high. If no party wins a clear majority, difficult decisions could be deferred. The uncertainty has the GBP in play.

Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD is becoming increasingly bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is trading steady. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is lower and the EURJPY cross is down. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:40
CAD 1.0160 3 AUD 0.9261 4 Gold 1178 -0.08
CNY 6.8255 10 NZD 0.7292 21 WTI 86.09 -0.01

The risk trade has been on and off in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). They are mixed now. The trio is being seen as an anti-EUR trade. The RBA is expected to raise rates again early Tuesday. Bank of Canada interest rates could be hiked on June 1. Monetary officials have no concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are mixed. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.66%, 0 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:40
NIK 11057 0 DAX 6104 -32 DJIA 11009 -13
HSI 20811 -297 FTSE 5553 0 S&P 1187 -1
SSEC 3009 138 SMI 6586 0 NAS 2461 -4
ASX 4786 -22       TSE 12211 -31

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: U.S. personal income and PCE data are due. The session will also see manufacturing PMI and construction data.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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