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European market update: ECB suspended the minimum rating threshold on Greek debt

Monday, May 03, 2010 5:49:06 AM

 European market update: ECB suspended the minimum rating threshold on Greek debt


***Economic Data***
- (SW) Sweden Swedbank Apr PMI Survey: 64.0 v 60.0e
- (TH) Thailand Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2%e ; CPI Core Y/Y: -0.5% v 0.6%e
- (TU) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 10.2% v 10.5%e
- (TU) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: 2.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 10.4% v 8.9%e
- (TU) Turkey Apr Manufacturing PMI: 56.0 v 54.9 prior
- (NO) Norway Apr PMI: 51.9 v 49.7 prior
- (IR) Ireland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 53.4 v 53.0 prior
- (HU) Hungry Apr Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 v 54.4 prior
- (SP) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 v 51.8 prior; highest since Jun 2007
- (SZ) Swiss Apr SVME Purchasing Manager Index: 65.9 v 64.5e
- (DE) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 2.9% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 8.1% v -0.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr Manufacturing PMI: 57.3 v 56.8 prior
- (IT) Italy Apr PMI Manufacturing: 54.3 v 54.5e; highest since May 2007
- (FR) France Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 56.6 v 56.7e; highest reading since Jul 2006
- (GE) Germany Apr Final Manufacturing PMI: 61.5 v 61.3e; highest reading on record since survey began in 1996
- (EU) Euro-Zone: Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 57.6 v 57.5e; highest since Jan 2006
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 19.0% v 27.7%e; Retails Sales Volume Y/Y: 17.2% v 24.1%e
- (SA) South Africa Apr Kagiso PMI: 55.2 v 55.6 prior
- (DE) Denmark PMI Survey: 51.6 v 53.9 prior

- Equities: In line with the declines seen in Asian equities, European stocks are mostly weaker led by declines in the CAC 40 and IBEX 35 indices. Equities are being weighed down by various factors including, concerns about Germany's parliament approving the €110B Greek aid package, China's surprise decision to raise the required reserve ratio for banks and continuing concerns about the regulatory outlook for Goldman Sachs. In Greece, the ASE index opened higher by more than 1%, as banks benefited from the aid package for Greece, in addition to the decision by the ECB to suspend the minimum rating threshold on Greek bonds until further notice. Additionally, Greek equities are tracking the sharp rally being seen in Greece government bond prices. In terms of European earnings, shipping firm TNT [TNT.NV) reported better than expected Q1 results. However, the company's shares have moved lower after initially gaining.

- In Individual Stocks: Altran Technologies [ALT.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €351.6M v €371.4M y/y: Expects material improvement in the group's operating margin compared with 2009 || TNT [TNT.NV]: Reports Q1 Net €143M v €134Me, Rev €2.75B v €2.6Be; Express volumes, revenues and results are expected to be well above 2009 levels; Mail volumes and results are expected to be below 2009 levels || Fuchs Petroleum [FPE.GE]: Reports Q1 Net Income €40.6M v 16.2M y/y, Rev €330.4M v €278.5M y/y; In the following quarters increasing prices for raw materials will also make it difficult to repeat the above-average earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) recorded in the first quarter of 2010.|| Ipsen [IPN.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €266.2M v €260Me, reaffirms 2010 sales targets || Latecoere [LAT.FR]: Reports final FY09 Op loss €102.8M v profit €31.9M y/y, Rev €449.5M v €683.9M y/y; Guides 2010 Rev in line with 2009 levels and expects a return to growth in 2011. || Audi [VOW3.GE] Audi reports Q1 Op profit €478M v €363M y/y, Rev €8.26B v €6.7B y/y; reiterates 2010 plans to increase operating profit and revenue; Guides FY10 Car sales more than 1M units || DTE.GE: CEO: sees no impact from the Greek situation on OTE; Greek results in line with expectations - AGM || XTA.UK: Glencore may be interested in merger with Xstrata valued around £55B; To propose "reverse takeover" of company

- Speakers: ECB suspended the minimum rating threshold on Greek debt. The suspension would last until further notice and would relate to all bonds guaranteed by Greek government. ECB stated that the Greek deficit reduction plan for aid was appropriate. ***(GE) Reportedly German draft bill estimated Greek aid at a max of €22.4B over 3 years and not to exceed €14B in the first year.***ECB's Bini-Smaghi commented that inefficiencies delayed the
Greece rescue plan. He added that the crisis in the Euro-zone area had political consequences and the Greek situation was the result of violation of EU principles *** German Fin Ministry commented that it did not expect Greece would need any additional assistance beyond the weekend aid package. Further Fin Min Schaeuble commented that the Maastricht Stability Pact had proven to be insufficient. He added that Germany's net borrowing remained "exuberantly" high and sought to reduce Federal deficit by €10B anually from 2011 *** ECB's Orphanides labeled the Greek deficit reduction plan as 'ambitious' but the country's fiscal consolidation plan was adequate enough to stabilize its fiscal situation. He further rnoted that the ECB's suspension of collateral rules for Greece was part of the overall aid package to Greece. *** Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes: Appropriate to leave repo rate unchanged but factors might weight in favor of a July rate hike versus Sept. *** German Econ Min Bruederle: Cannot delay on Greece or risk credit crunch

- Currencies/Fixed Income: Quiet European morning with dealers noting almost as many countries out as were in today. The currency markets experienced narrow trading ranges asa result of the thin conditions. EUR/USD dealers noted that the CTFC futures showing record Euro shorts outstanding complemented by a string of five successive monthly declines suggested that it might be hard to garner and further downside in the pair at this time especially with a key 8-year uptrend line at 1.3070 area. For nor the upside seemed limited to short covering rallies with 1.3400 cited as a key level. ***The Swedish Riksbank minutes suggest a July rate hike and this aided the SEK in session.

- Geopolitical: UK's race will come to an end on May 6th but in the meantime support for the Labour Party fell to a 92-year low at 24% after the candidate debates and Brown's gaffe calling a supporter a "bigot". According to a Harris Interactive poll support for Conservative Party is seen at around 33% and that of Liberal Democrat Party at 32%. An article from FT speculates on the possibility of a hung parliament. Article argues that Conservatives which are leading Liberal Democrats may have to form a coalition with smaller parties or form a minority government. On the other hand, Conservative leader Cameron does not want to raise CVAT but acknowledges that current plans do not sufficiently address UK's "record peacetime deficit." ***The most populated state of Germany, North Rhine -Westphalia is headed for elections on May 9th and a You-Gov poll shows support for Merkel's CDU party is about 35%, which is in line with the support for the opposition Social Democrats party. Furthermore, in the poll, the SPD-Green alliance was two percentage points ahead of the ruling CDU-FDP coalition. A Bild am Sonntag survey, again from North Rhine-Westphalia,shows CDU received 38% of votes, FDP received 8%. opposition Social Democrates received 33% and Greens received about 11%. The survey shows that about 62% of German voters are "unhappy" with Chancellor Merkel's CDU-FDP coalition. *** Australia will impose a 40% tax on mining companies effective in 2012-2013 which is expected to yield A49B in additional tax revenue by 2013-14. According to an article on FT, analysts expect
BHP's earnings to be cut to about 19% and Rio Tinto's could see earnings cut at 30%. CEO of BHP sees the tax as threatening to Australia's competitiveness, "jeopardize future investments and will adversely impact the future wealth and standard of living of all Australians

- United/Continental confirm 'merger of equals'
- Greek rescue package done with €110Bb over 3 years. The break down seen with €80B from Euro Zone members and €30B from IMF. First payment before May 19th Greek bond redemption
- China raises Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) by another 50 bps to 17.00%. (third hike in 2010)
- Australia plans a 40% super tax on miners
- Key event week with RBA rate hike likely on Tuesday, UK elections on Thursday and US payrolls on Friday

***Looking Ahead***
- 8:30 (US) Mar Personal Income: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Personal Spending: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Mar PCE Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.8% prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Apr PMI Manufacturing: No est v 55.4 prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Trade Balance: No est v $668M prior
- 10:00 (US) ISM Manufacturing: 58.8e v 59.6 prior; Prices Paid: 74.0e v 75.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Construction Spending M/M: -0.5%e v -1.3% prior
-12:00 (IT) Italy Apr New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v 19.6% prior



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