The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3155
level and was capped around the $1.3340 level. Eurozone finance ministers convened over the
weekend and German legislators voted to provide Greece with ‚ā¨29.6 billion over
three years.German Chancellor Merkel
reported ‚ÄúIt doesn‚Äôt only mean that we help Greece, but that we stabilize the
euro as a whole, which helps people in Germany.‚ÄĚMerkel will face challenging regional
elections next week and will probably cede some power.In total, European governments and the
International Monetary Fund voted to provide ‚ā¨110 billion in loans to Greece
over three years.The European Central
Bank voted to suspend its rating limits on Greek debt, meaning the ECB will
still accept sovereign Greek bonds and other instruments as repo-eligible
collateral.While the deal announced
over the weekend removes some uncertainty from the market regarding Greece, it
remains to be seen if this aid package will be large enough to help Greece
restructure.Another major unknown is
whether or not Greece will be able to effect the necessary public spending cuts
required to comply with the terms of its financial bailout package.Additionally, there is ongoing attention on
Spain, Portugal, and other highly-indebted countries that may require similar
financial assistance packages.ECB
member Ordonez called on Spain to enact much-needed labour reform.Eurozone data released today saw April PMI
manufacturing improve to 57.6 from 57.5 and EMU-16 producer price inflation
will be released tomorrow.German April
PMI improved to 61.5 and French April PMI ticked lower to 56.6.In
U.S. news, data released today saw March personal income and personal
spending increase 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.The March PCE deflator was up 2.0% y/y while core PCE were up 0.1% m/m
and 1.3% y/y.Also, April ISM
manufacturing improved to 60.4 while the April ISM prices paid index climbed to
78.0.Moreover, March construction
spending was up 0.2% m/m.Euro
bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•94.45 level and was supported around
the ¬•93.85 level. Japanese financial
markets were closed overnight on account of the Golden Week holiday and will be
closed through the middle of the week. Last week, Bank of Japan kept monetary policy
unchanged overnight and reported it will help lenders provide credit, possibly
using methods from 1998-1999 when lenders gave cash to lenders to address the
credit squeeze.The headline overnight
unsecured call rate target was maintained at 0.1%. BoJ Governor Shirakawa
directed the central bank to stimulate lending ‚Äúwith a view to strengthening
the foundations for economic growth.‚ÄĚ He added ‚ÄúThe government is also trying
to map out an economic growth strategy, and the Bank of Japan hopes to give a
boost to such efforts with new policy measures.‚ÄĚ Last week‚Äôs data released in
Japan evidence an improving economy that is mired in a deflationary spiral and
the central bank‚Äôs enhanced rhetoric last week reflects that dichotomy.The new forecast for inflation suggests
deflation will end during the next fiscal year with CPI at +0.1%.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.21% on
Friday to close at ¬•11,057.40.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The
euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•125.40 level and was supported around the ¬•123.95 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ¬•144.10 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•87.45
level. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar was unchanged vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8253 in the over-the-counter market. People‚Äôs
Bank of China lifted its bank reserve ratios for the third time this year,
taking the ratio for big banks higher by 50bps to 17.0% and smaller banks
higher to 15.0%, effective 10 May.There
is market chatter that China may lift its reserve ratio as high as 18% in a bid
to manage economic growth.People‚Äôs Bank
of China is expected to revalue its yuan currency at any time.Data to be released in China tonight include
April PMI manufacturing.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5210 level and was capped around the $1.5315 level. Bank of England Governor King reported late
last week that the next U.K. political leader will need to oversee tough fiscal
reductions, suggesting it will be difficult for the new Prime Minister to
escape ‚Äúlame duck‚ÄĚ status.The U.K. has
a ¬£163.4 billion budget deficit, equivalent to around 11.6% of the country‚Äôs
gross domestic product.The Tories‚Äô
candidate, David Cameron, won last week‚Äôs final debate against Liberal
Democratic candidate Clegg and Labour‚Äôs Prime Minister Brown.The General Election will take place on 6 May
and Cameron is expected to win but Parliament may be hung.Data to be released in the U.K. next week
include March consumer credit, March net lending secured on dwellings, March
mortgage approvals, the March M4 money supply, April PMI manufacturing, the
April BRC shop price index, and April Nationwide consumer confidence.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5030
level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency
tested bids around the ¬£0.8665 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8705 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0845 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0745 level. Data released in Switzerland saw the April
purchasing managers index print at 65.9, up from the prior reading of
65.5.April consumer price inflation
data will be released on Thursday along with April unemployment data and March
retail sales data on Friday.Data
released this weekend confirmed the Swiss National Bank has spent more than CHF
40 billion to buy euro this year with CHF 30.2 billion in franc sales in the
first quarter alone.Data Swiss National
Bank President Hildebrand last week said the SNB will continue to counter any
‚Äúexcessive‚ÄĚ gains of the franc, noting there would be a ‚Äúnegative impact‚ÄĚ if
the franc appreciates ‚Äúsharply due to its role as a safe haven currency.‚ÄĚHildebrand noted the SNB ‚Äúwill not allow such
a development to turn into a new deflation hazard‚ÄĚ and is ‚Äúacting decisively to
prevent an excessive appreciation.‚ÄĚHildebrand
also called on European leaders to conclude negotiations over Greece‚Äôs aid
package ‚Äúrapidly.‚ÄĚ U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0930
level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4340 level while the British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6530 level.
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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