Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Active Despite Holidays
The Daily Forex View
Active Despite Holidays
20:00 GMT- May 3 (global-view.com) Many centers were closed Monday due to a carry though of May Day observances. Reduced participation today was probably been a godsend as it has gave traders markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years from the EU and IM, along with a severe domestic austerity plan. Critical will for the program will be getting it through the German legislature and others quickly this week and for the local populace to accept a severe reduction in its standard of living. As expected, the EURUSD is lower on the developments.
Looking ahead, traders expect a divergence to develop between ECB and Fed policy over time with ECB hands tied as it addresses the economic struggles of peripheral European economies and the Fed acts to remove excess liquidity. Over the weekend, China announced a further tightening of monetary policy as it increased the triple-r (reserve requirement ratio) by 50bps.
The EURUSD is lower. The GBPUSD is weaker, while the EURGBP is steady. The Greek bailout plan has advanced. There still a number of pieces to the puzzle. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on the Greek credit default swaps.
In the GBP, traders are focused on the May 6 U.K. election. Tory candidate Cameron reportedly won the final debate (on the economy) Thursday. GBP dealers have been watching election headlines. PM Brown might have made a fatal pre-election gaffe. Latest polls today suggest odds for a hung Parliament have fallen. If no party wins a clear majority on Thursday, difficult decisions could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play.
Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD is becoming increasingly bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is trading steady. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is higher and the EURJPY cross is unchanged. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). They are all higher now. The trio is being seen as an anti-EUR trade. The RBA is expected to raise rates again early Tuesday. Bank of Canada interest rates could be hiked on June 1. Monetary officials have no concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are higher. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.
Far East equities closed lower. European bourses closed mixed. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.71%, +4 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday will see another holiday in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its cash rate target early by 25bp to 4.50%. In Europe, U.K. manufacturing PMI data are due. Eurozone PPI data are also awaited. In North America, U.S. Pending Homes Sales, Factory Orders and API data are awaited.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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