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Tuesday May 4, 2010 - 09:39:20 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 4,
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP National
Employment Report. It is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private
employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that
represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days
before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the
government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very
volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for
the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish
for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 30.00k.
The Euro broke Fibonacci
61.8% support for the short term at 1.3202, and fell to 1.3153. Although we did
not reach the suggested target for this break, it was a pretty important break,
since it weakened the technical outlook, because this support was the last
notable support protecting this cycleâ€™s low, and the 1-year low, 1.3113. Thus,
after breaking 1.3202, the odds favor a dip below 1.3113 to reach a new cycle
low. We expect the Dollar to launch an attack at this level immediately after
breaking the short term support 1.3173. If this support is broken, the pair will
target 1.3113 first, and then 1.3050, the last notable support before the 1.30
landmark. The resistance is at 1.3273, it is very hard for us to picture the
EURUSD in a positive technical outlook while it is trading below this level. But
if it does break this level, it will be free of most of the pressure, and it
will target 1.3354 and may be 1.3434.
important intraday support, protecting yesterdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 1.3113: Mar 30th
â€¢ 1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
1.3273: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 1.3354: Apr 6th high.
1.3434: the important low of Mar
The Dollar/Yen broke the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, 94.30, and came close to our
suggested target 95.05 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is
94.96). This rising trend finally penetrated 94.30, and managed to reach a new
year-high at 94.96, the highest level for this pair since Aug 25th. This rising
trend, is not a whole world away from the most important support for the time
being, which combines short term Fibonacci 61.8% with the rising trend line from
91.58 on the hourly charts. For the short term, support is at 94.77, if we go
back to trade below this level, the USDJPY will be correcting yesterdayâ€™s rising
move, or even the whole rise from 92.80. The targets for this correction will be
94.13 first, and then the all important 93.63. On the other hand, the resistance
is at yesterdayâ€™s target 95.05. If broken, it will be hard for any other
resistance to stop the price before reaching 96 , where the targets 95.90 &
â€¢ 94.77: Apr 5th high.
Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
â€¢ 93.63: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
term, and the rising trend line from 91.58.
95.05: Aug 24th high.
â€¢ 95.90: Jul 29th low.
â€¢ 96.69: May 19th 2009
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
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your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject
to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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