European Market Update: possible German CDU member calls for "orderly insolvency" of European states as "consequences" follow from the Greek crisis
Tuesday, May 04, 2010
European Market Update: possible German CDU member calls for "orderly insolvency" of European states as "consequences" follow from the Greek crisis
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -2.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v -0.5%e - (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance (HUF): 373.3M v 373.6M prior - (SP) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: -24.2K v 36.0K prior - (PD) Poland Apr PMI Manufacturing: 52.5 v 52.5 prior - (GE) Germany VDIK: April New car registration Y/Y: -32% v -26.5% prior - (SP) Spain Apr Consumer Confidence: 78.2 v 72.7 prior - (BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: -/4% v 0.4%e - (UK) Mar Net Consumer Credit: Â£0.3B v Â£0.4Be; Net Lending: Â£0.3B v Â£1.5Be - (UK) Mar Mortgage Approvals: 48.9KK v 49.0Ke - (UK) Mar Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.5% prior - (UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 58.0 v 57.5e; Highest reading since 1994 - (SA) South Africa Apr Naamsa Vehicle sales Y/Y: 26.6% v 15.0% prior - (EU) Euro Zone Mar PPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e - (SA) South Africa Q1 Unemployment: 25.2% v 24.3% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: - On today' session, European equities initially opened higher supported by corporate earnings and positive leads from the US. However, after most indices moved into negative territory led by losses in Spain's IBEX and Greek banks, as government bond spreads started to widen. According to matter chatter, the equity losses are being driven by various factors including, sovereign concerns related to Spain, continues worries about BP's escalating oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and weaker than expected UK monthly mortgage approvals data. Additionally, shares of UBS have turned lower following the company's Q1 earnings reports on the firm's investment banking revenues and decision not to pay a dividend in 2010.
- In Individual Stocks: Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ]: Provided interim management statement: Q1 Premium income CHF7.9B v CHF6.7Be || Alstom [ALO.FR]:Reported FY Net Profit â‚¬1.22B v â‚¬1.2Be, Rev â‚¬19.7B v â‚¬19.7Be; to increase dividend at â‚¬1.24 v â‚¬1.12 prior|| [FME.GE] Reports Q1 Net $211M v $214Me, Rev $2.9B v $2.9Be; Confirms outlook of FY10 Revenue over $12B ||[LIN.GE]: Reported Q1 Rev â‚¬2.89B v â‚¬2.9Be, EBIT â‚¬351M v â‚¬340Me; confirms 2010 outlook of FY10 Rev and op profit up over 2009 levels || UBS AG [UBSN.SZ]: Reported Q1 Net profit CHF2.2B v CHF2.0Be, Rev CHF9.01B v CHF9.2Be; Q1 total investment banking revenues CHF604M v CHF746M prior (as the fee pool decreased due to less client activity compared with the seasonally strong fourth quarter); quarterly US wealth management revenues declined by 2% due mostly to a credit recorded in Q4.|| Continental AG [CON.GE]: Reported Q1 Net Profit â‚¬228M v â‚¬148Me, Rev â‚¬6B v â‚¬5.4Be; targets increase in FY10 Adj EBIT and guides revenue to up to 10% .|| Aberdeen Asset Management [ADN.UK]: Reported H1 Net Â£48.9M v Â£15.2M y/y, Rev Â£294.4M v Â£192.2M y/y || BP [BP.UK]: Commented on Gulf of Mexico oil spill; new well is being planned to intercept existing well; cost to contain spill seen at $6M, reiterates that 5,000 bpd is leaving the well || Danske Bank [DANSKE.DE]: Reported Q1 Net DKK 800M v DKK292Me, Net interest income DKK6.01B v DKK7.23B y/y || SSAB AB A [SSABA.SW]: Reported Q1 Net SEK143M v SEK28Me, Rev SEK8.87B v SEK9Be; expects increase in raw material prices in Q2 which will fully impact Q3; expects demand for steel to remain positive in Q2 especially in Latin America and Asia.
- Speakers: ECB's Liikanen commented that Greece was going along in a better path and noted that borrowing costs had started receding following EU/IMF relief package. Greece would not be provided aid without the implementation of tough reforms He stressed that Greek aid was as conditional as it can be and that every EU nation had veto power with regards to the aid package provided for Greece. If Greece did not live up to commitments the payments could be stopped. He noted that the Maastrict Stability Pact had not worked as well as it should have. He reiterated view that it did not see the collapse of the Euro-system ***A German govt source indicated that the Greek capital requirements to 2012 were larger than the size of â‚¬110B bailout package. The assumption is that Greece would return to the capital market in a step-by-step process after 18 months *** ECB's Mersch commented that the ECB rules must accord with 'credible' Greek austerity program and that ECB's Trichet was totally consistent on ECB collateral rules ***Moodys commented that the joint EU/IMF rescue plan was not an end to Greek fiscal crisis. Key factor remains whether implementation of austerity measures would actually adjust budget deficit in line with targets ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: Risk aversion picked up momentum as the peripheral concerns in Europe will not dissipate. The slowdown in China PMI data combined with ongoing Greek concerns again weighed on sentiment. The session saw the focus shifting from Greece to Spain with speculation that Spain might be the next country inline looking for aid. The vague sovereign downgrade rumors circulated in the session for Spain. The EUR/USD traded just under 1.3130 and approaching its 8-year uptrend line around the 1.3060 area. The Euro failed to garner any momentum on chatter that some European banks were reopening repo lines to Greek banks under government duress. The comment from a German CDU member that EU must look into the possibility of an orderly default seemed to be the catalyst of the recent spat of risk aversion. The member expressed Merkel's view that when the EU rewrites the rules it should allow for "an orderly insolvency of a state in which creditors are also called upon ***As the NY morning approached Fitch reaffirmed its sovereign "AAA" rating for Spain and maintained a stable outlook which provided a minor relief in the aversion sentiment.
Geopolitical: UK Parliamentary update: Still with two days of campaigning remaining, recent polling data indicate Conservatives gaining support in key parliamentary seats. An Ipsos MORI survey put the Tories at an even split in seats needed to gain majority versus prior data, including last Thursday, indicating Britain was on a path towards a hung parliament. The recent momentum of the Conservative party was furthered by the support of the Financial Times, which has not happened since 1987.*** As speculations on hung parliament and its chaotic effect on economy increases, Liberal Democrat leader Clegg declares himself open to discussions with Conservative leader Cameron. Clegg states collaboration among parties is vital to address the state deficit in and that Cameron governing alone would be a "recipe for profound political and social tensions" stated in an FT article. This declaration comes as Clegg accused Cameron of "breathtaking arrogance" when the conservative leader claimed to "have the momentum now". In the case of a hung parliament, however, Brown is expected to court Clegg and while some members of Lib-Dem party may compromise with the future-defeated prime minister, voters would probably punish Clegg's Lib-Dem party. According to FT, they may even vote No on a referendum on electoral reform which is the number one condition for Clegg to engage in any post-electoral talks with any party. On the other hand, Clegg warns of a Greece-like situation in Britain if politicians continue to offer tax and spending cuts and "fail to implement painful reforms" for the sake of "Whitehall seats". He calls for a cross-party council for a economic stability in order to address the structural deficit *** Sovereign debt - Following yesterday's cabinet approval for loans to Greece, Chancellor Merkel now faces parliamentary vote on Friday. Though expected to pass Parliament, vote in North Rhine-Westphalia may still jeopardize her party and term in office as there has been growing opposition due to Germany contribution of the Greece aid package.*** Greece: Public reaction towards the austerity measures have resulted in a 48-hour strike to begin today. Yesterday, initial legislation was submitted to parliament by the government to increase sales and sin taxes. ***Industry's reaction to the Australian mining tax (known as Resources Super Profit Tax) has been undoubtedly negative as BHP.AU came with a statement which labelled the tax as threatening to Australia's competitiveness. As more companies are expected to manifest the same sentiment, both analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley believe the major pullback in shares has already factored in the numerical aspect. While earnings are not expected to be affected till 2013 or 2014, the returns will be definitely altered. This will lead the big mining companies to rearrange the project preference list favoring projects outside of Australia first.
In the Papers: NY Times commented on delays to Spain's planned merger of some savings banks. Article noted that delaying the consolidation process could make it more expensive to merge the banks later. According to some investors the lack of progress in dealing with Spain's banking system problems, could mean that Spain risks falling into the same trap as Greece.
***Notes/Observations: - Softer China PMI data renews global risk aversion fears - Australia Central Bank (RBA) raises key rate by 25bps (as expected) - UBS slightly beats expectations. - White House Advisor Volcker: US needs to think about new taxes. - Gold rises on central bank credibility issues. Hits record against CHF, EUR
***Looking Ahead*** - (RU) Russia Reserve Fund: $ v $52.9B prior; Wellbeing Fund: $ v $89.6B prior - 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Industrial Production M/M: 1.8%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 18.8%e v 18.4% prior - 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store Sales - 9:30 (SI) Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 50.5e v 51.1 prior; Electronic Sector: No est v 53.4 prior - 10:00 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner - 10:00 (US) Mar Factory Orders: -0.1%e v 0.6% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Confidence: 82.5 v 81.8 prior - 10:00 (US) Mar Pending Homes Sales M/M: 5.0%e v 8.2% prior; Y/Y: 19.5e v 17.3% prior - 12:30 (GE) Bundesbank's Zeitler
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