Traders expressed their dissatisfaction with the recent
bailout package between Greece,
the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by driving the Euro to a
new 12-month low overnight.
According to reports, the parliaments of Euro Zone nations
must approve the release of the funds before the aid package will exchange
hands. In the meantime, Greece
will try to implement its newly agreed upon austere financial cuts amid civil
unrest. At this time, despite agreeing to the bailout package, it appears that
the implementation of the plan may be difficult. Aggressive shorts are seizing
the opportunity to pressure the Euro further.
The bailout agreement which was highly expected failed to
restore confidence to the Euro, most likely because speculators still believe
the sovereign debt problems in the Euro Zone are likely to spread to Spain, Portugal
Each recent rally in the Euro has been met by more selling
pressure which has triggered a break to a new low for the year. This pattern is
expected to continue as the direction of the Euro is clearly in the hands of
the shorts. Recently released Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment
of Traders data shows that hedge funds and other large speculators are dictating
the direction of this market. The report shows that these large traders
increased net wagers on a Euro drop by 25% to 89,013 contracts in the week
ended April 27th.
Clearly if large traders believed that the bailout package
was going to save the Euro, the number of net shorts would have decreased. The
increase in the number of net shorts indicates that bearish traders are gaining
confidence in the possible demise of the Euro. Last week the S&P Corp.
downgraded the debt rating of Spain
This action helped throw fuel on the fire as it no doubt confirmed to the
bearish traders that they were trading the Euro from the right side.
Although the Greece
bailout package may be providing the nation with some breathing room, the
market is saying that traders remain cautious. It is easy for the policymakers
to require beaten countries like Greece to agree to more austere
financial measures, but it is another thing to make them follow the new rules.
The Euro is also under pressure from traders who simply
believe the Euro Zone is going to be mired in this financial crisis for some
time. In addition to expectations of contagion in the region, some bearish
traders are increasing bets that the European Central Bank will not be able to
raise interest rates during a time period when most major industrial nations
are considering rate hikes. Other traders believe that the situation in the
Euro region will grow to the point where credit markets become locked up much
like they were during the height of the Lehman debacle. Putting everything
together, it looks as if the situation is likely to worsen which means downside
pressure will remain on the Euro.
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