The euro depreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested bids
around the US$ 1.3035 level and was capped around the $1.3215 level. The common currency tumbled again on renewed
Greek and European woes.A ‚ā¨110 billion
bailout package for Greece including a sizable contribution from Germany was
announced over the weekend and some traders are speculating the package may not
be large enough to meet all of Greece‚Äôs needs over the next three years.The Greek bailout puts the spotlight on other
highly-indebted eurozone countries.At
the end of 2009, Greece had a total debt equivalent to US$ 236 billion with US$
45 billion owed to Germany, US$ 75 billion owed to France, and US$ 15 billion
owed to the U.K.At the end of 2009,
Italy‚Äôs total debt was US$ 1.4 trillion, including US$ 511 billion owed to
France, US$ 190 billion owed to Germany, and US$ 77 billion owed to the
U.K.At the end of 2009, Spain had US$
1.1 trillion in debt including US$ 238 billion owed to Germany, US$ 220 billion
owed to France, and US 114 billion owed to the U.K.At the end of 2009, Ireland had a total debt
of US$ 867 billion including US$ 184 billion owed to Germany, US$ 188 billion
owed to the U.K., and US$ 60 billion owed to France.At the end of 2009, Portugal‚Äôs total debt totaled
US$ 286 billion with US$ 86 billion owed to Spain, US$ 47 billion owed to
Germany, US$ 45 billion owed to France, and US$ 24 billion owed to the
U.K.Collectively, these data evidence a
massive amount of money owed to Germany, a country that will likely continue to
play the lead role in regional bailouts.Furthermore, last week‚Äôs credit downgrades to Spain and Portugal might
render it less likely those countries will be able to fulfill all of their debt
obligations.Data released in the
eurozone today saw EMU-16 producer price inflation up 0.6% m/m and 0.9%
y/y.Also, German March retail sales were
off 2.4% m/m and up 2.7% y/y.Chartists
are eyeing reported stops below the US$ 1.2990 and US$ 1.2900 levels with some
bears talking about a downside target around the US$ 1.2740 level.There is talk that the European Central Bank
may need to enact stronger plans to deal with the eurozone‚Äôs problems with some
whispers about a quantitative easing policy that could see the ECB purchase
bonds in the secondary market.In U.S. news, data released today saw
March factory orders climb 1.3%, unchanged from the upwardly revised 1.3% print.
Also, March pending home sales were up
5.3% m/m and 23.5% y/y.Data to be
released on Friday include April non-farm payrolls and unemployment data.Estimates indicate non-farm payrolls may have
increased 189,000 last month with the unemployment rate hanging steady around
9.7%.Former Federal Reserve Chairman
Volcker reported U.S. unemployment will be ‚Äútoo high for too long.‚ÄĚEuro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2990
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•94.40 level and was capped around
the ¬•94.95 level. Japanese financial
markets remained closed overnight on account of the Golden Week holiday and
will be closed through the middle of the week. Last week, Bank of Japan kept monetary policy
unchanged overnight and reported it will help lenders provide credit, possibly
using methods from 1998-1999 when lenders gave cash to lenders to address the
credit squeeze.The headline overnight
unsecured call rate target was maintained at 0.1%. BoJ Governor Shirakawa
directed the central bank to stimulate lending ‚Äúwith a view to strengthening
the foundations for economic growth.‚ÄĚ He added ‚ÄúThe government is also trying
to map out an economic growth strategy, and the Bank of Japan hopes to give a
boost to such efforts with new policy measures.‚ÄĚ Last week‚Äôs data released in
Japan evidence an improving economy that is mired in a deflationary spiral and
the central bank‚Äôs enhanced rhetoric last week reflects that dichotomy. The new forecast for inflation suggests
deflation will end during the next fiscal year with CPI at +0.1%.April monetary base data will be released on
6 May.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed
1.21% on Friday to close at ¬•11,057.40.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The
euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around
the ¬•123.60 level and was capped around the ¬•125.45 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•143.10 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•86.30 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8268 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8253. Data released in China overnight saw the April
HSBC manufacturing PMI index decline to 55.4 from the prior reading of 57.0.The reported pullback in Chinese
manufacturing data suggests import-dependent industrialized countries may have
seen a deceleration in economic growth last month.Chinese banks are increasing their reserves
after People‚Äôs Bank of China raised its bank reserves ratio for the third time
this year this weekend and Chinese equities declined to a seven-month low
today.There is market chatter that
China may lift its reserve ratio as high as 18% in a bid to manage economic
growth.People‚Äôs Bank of China is
expected to revalue its yuan currency at any time.Data to be released in China tonight include
April PMI manufacturing.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5125 level and was capped around the $1.5265 level. Political pundits are now forecasting the
Tories may have edged ahead and may be closer to winning an outright victory at
this Thursday‚Äôs General Election.Sterling could get a boost if the Tories win because the party has long
been perceived as pro-sterling.Many
data were released in the U.K. today.First, March net consumer credit printed at ¬£300 million, down from the
revised ¬£600 million prior reading. Second, March net lending secured on
dwellings fell sharply to ¬£300 million from an upwardly revised ¬£1.8
billion.Third, March mortgage approvals
climbed to 48,900 from a downwardly revised 46,900.Fourth, the M4 money supply indicator grew
0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y.Fifth, April PMI
manufacturing printed at 58.0 improved to 58.0 from a revised 57.3.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5030
level.The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8630 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8670
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0945 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0840 level. Data released this weekend confirmed the Swiss
National Bank has spent more than CHF 40 billion to buy euro this year with CHF
30.2 billion in franc sales in the first quarter alone.Data Swiss National Bank President Hildebrand
last week said the SNB will continue to counter any ‚Äúexcessive‚ÄĚ gains of the
franc, noting there would be a ‚Äúnegative impact‚ÄĚ if the franc appreciates
‚Äúsharply due to its role as a safe haven currency.‚ÄĚHildebrand noted the SNB ‚Äúwill not allow such
a development to turn into a new deflation hazard‚ÄĚ and is ‚Äúacting decisively to
prevent an excessive appreciation.‚ÄĚHildebrand
also called on European leaders to conclude negotiations over Greece‚Äôs aid
package ‚Äúrapidly.‚ÄĚ April consumer price inflation data will be released on
Thursday.U.S. dollar offers are cited
around the CHF 1.0930 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the
Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4320 level
while the British pound appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 1.6595 level.
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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