Wednesday March 16, 2005 - 01:05:55 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 16th March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 104.65 ... 105.00 ... 105.36 ... 105.60
Support....: 104.31 ... 104.00 ... 103.64 ... 103.48
While 104.31 holds there is room for direct gains to 105.00 and to 105.36-60 again
The pullback was deeper than anticipated and negates the very bullish view we had seen (though held strong doubts). The wave structure isn't particularly clear so we need to tread carefully for a while but while 104.31 remains intact we feel there is room for a move to 105.00 which, if seen, should cause a small pullback to the 104.70-75 area to allow a test of the 105.36 resistance again. Further resistance is at 105.60-84 and at 106.25. Any dip below 104.31 would imply a move to the 104.00 area before higher.
Loss of 104.50 brought the Dollar back into the 104.00-30 support area. Overall we do have a more bullish view but the short term is a little mixed. Any dip below 104.30 would allow corrective losses to continue to the 104.00 area but we feel this should hold. Only below 104.00 would threaten the 103.64-67 lows. Next support is then at 103.48 and 103.01.
Elliott Wave Comments:
16th March 2005
The move higher is developing comfortably although the structure remains unclear. However, we are cautiously labeling the 105.17 high as Wave (i) and this could mean that yesterday's correction to 104.14 may have completed Wave (ii) but we cannot rule out a more complex correction before the upside comes under threat. Any move above 104.65 would look to send price up to 105.00 and after a correction we feel this should reach the 105.36 area to complete Wave (a) of Wave (iii). Then look for a correction before further gains to the 138.2% Wave (iii) target at 106.25.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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