Wednesday May 5, 2010 - 03:43:26 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 05-May-2010 - 0341 GMT
The US Equities fell heavily yesterday over concerns that the Euro debt crisis may spread beyond Greece. The Dow (10926.77) was down 2.02% and the Nasdaq (2424.25) was down 2.98%. It appears that the Dow has honoured the crucial trendline Resistance in the region of 11100-200 on the weekly charts and may fall towards 10600-700 on a weekly close below 11100.
All Asians are in the Red today, following the concerns of European debt crisis. The Hang Seng (20390.75) is down 1.79% and the Shanghai (2781.18, down 1.91%) may fall towards 2750-00 in the coming days. Japan is closed on account of Childrens Day today. In India, the Sensex (17137.14) was down 1.43% and the Nifty (5148.50) was down 1.42% yesterday. The Sensex was down on account of Euro debt crisis coupled with worries over weak metal prices as analysts expect further tightening of monetary policy in China. The Sensex may fall towards 16500 in the coming days/weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4663.60) is down 1.89% today.
Crude (82.30) tanked 4% yesterday following the stronger dollar. The US Crude inventory data due today which is expected to show a rise in the inventory also supported the fall. Immediate Support is seen at 82.00-81.70 region and in the bigger picture there is strong Support in the broad 82-79 region.
Gold (1168.40) fell sharply from yesterday's high of 1192.80 and is trading lower now. The stronger dollar pulled down the price. Support is seen at 1160-40 region which might hold for sometime.
Concerns that Europe's debt crisis is spreading and the Greece's aid package will not ease the crisis witnessed the strengthening of the dollar all around. The Euro (1.2967) might test the April-2009 low of 1.2886 and might even test 1.2830-00. Dollar-Yen (94.74) is looking bullish for a rise to 96 with Support at 94.30-00 region. Euro-Yen (122.83) fell sharply following the fall in the Euro. It might test 122-121.80 today.
Dollar-Swiss (1.1049) is trading strong above 1.10 and might rise to 1.11-12 in the coming days. Cable (1.5144) has bounced back from the low of 1.5090 and is expected to retain the range 1.51-55 in which it has been trading for some time. Aussie (0.9100) has a crucial Support at 0.9076 (100-DMA) which if holds might see a bounce back towards 0.92 today.
Dollar-Won is trading near 1115 and USD-SGD trades near 1.38. Dollar-Rupee has opened higher at 44.89/90 following the dollar strength seen all around.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.35%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 5 bps and 9 bps each to quote at 0.94% and 3.58% respectively.
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia had increased interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50% in line with market expectations, its sixth rate increase since October, 2009.
0900 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.01%...Previous -0.6%
1215 GMT US ADP Emp
...Expected 29k...Previous -23k
AUD RBA Interest Rate
...Actual 4.50%...Previous 4.25%
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