Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday May 5, 2010 - 09:48:57 GMT
Share This Story
Forexpros - www.forexpros.com
Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 5,
Fundamental Analysis: ECB Press
The European Central Bank holds this monthly press conference
about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced. It is about an hour
long and has two parts: First, a prepared statement is read; then the conference
is opened to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers
that trigger market volatility. The press conference, which is broadcasted on
the ECB website, is the ECB's primary method for communicating with investors
about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most
recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic
outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it often provides clues regarding
future monetary policy. If the statement is more hawkish than expected, that is
usually good for the euro.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3173, and
completely collapsed reaching both suggested targets 1.3113 & 1.3050. It
even dropped more than 100 pips below our second target, dropping below the 1.30
for the first time since Apr 28th 2009. It was obvious, even before this recent
drop, that the technical picture is negative, which we have expressed clearly in
yesterdayâ€™s report. But, the pace of this drop has exceeded our expectations. If
we try to explain what happened, it could be a 5-wave drop which is still
developing, out of which we are in the 3rd wave. And since wave 4 could be a
sharp correction or a horizontal one, we must be extra cautious around here. We
could see a sharp correction taking us back to the 1.31 area, before dropping
below 1.29, or we could see a modest correction. Thus, we prefer to concentrate
on the short term levels, and follow of break of any of them. The important
levels for today are resistance 1.2985 & support 1.2948. If we break the
support 1.2948, the price will continue dropping to the important levels in the
1.28 area: 1.2885 & 1.2820. But if we break the resistance 1.2985, the price
will go back to trade inside the broken channel, and will start correcting
yesterdayâ€™s drop, targeting 1.3065 & 1.3130.
1.2948: important intraday support, protecting yesterdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 1.2885: Apr
22nd 2009 important low.
â€¢ 1.2820: Mar 10th 2009
â€¢ 1.2985: the bottom of the channel which was
â€¢ 1.3065: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
The Dollarâ€™s rise stopped
at 94.96, thatâ€™s 9 pips below our resistance 95.05, then it dropped, to leave us
wondering is this everything? Is the short term rise over, or will it go on?
Everything depends on breaking 95.05 or holding below it. If we hold below this
resistance the price will be expected to fall, and test the rising trend line
from 92.80 at 94.56. If broken the technical outlook will turn negative for the
short term, and we will target the important support 93.91. If this one is
broken, the technical outlook will turn negative for the medium term, and we
will target 93.30 as a first and modest target for this break, on the way to
lower levels later. On the other hand, if 95.05 gives way, it will be hard to
imagine the rise stopping before the 96 station as we will target 95.90 &
may be 96.69.
â€¢ 94.56: the rising trend line from
92.80 on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 93.91: the rising trend line from 91.58.
93.30: Apr 23rd low.
â€¢ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
95.90: Jul 29th low.
â€¢ 96.69: May 19th 2009 high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in
light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose
all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
- Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
- Live trading strategy sessions.
- Market Updates with Trading Tools.
Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017
Register for the Amazing Trader
Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES
Trader's Advocate Articles..