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Wednesday May 5, 2010 - 09:57:25 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Markets Focused on Stocks

 

The Daily Forex View


Markets Focused on Stocks

10:00 GMT- May 5 (global-view.com)  Markets are on edge heading into the North American session today. The April ADP private jobs data would normally be the highlight of the session, but it will be the performance of U.S. equity markets that should set the tone. This week, the EURUSD has borne the brunt of ongoing worries about the periphery of the Eurozone. At the moment, the Greek bailout program is working its way through the German parliament. Today sees a day of national strikes in Greece to protest austerity measures that are being imposed on the economy.

Looking ahead, the U.K. sees national elections tomorrow with an uncertain  outcome seen. Odds are the U.K. will wind up with some sort of a coalition government. The EZ Final April services PMI was revised modestly higher to 55.6.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:45
EUR 1.2985 -14 JPY 123.07 34 JPY 143.60 49
GBP 1.5151 -6 GBP 85.70 -6 CHF 167.12 10
CHF 1.1030 11 CHF 1.4322 -1 CHF vs.    
JPY 94.78 36       JPY 85.93 24

The EURUSD is lower. The GBPUSD is steady, while the EURGBP is unchanged. The Greek bailout plan is moving along but is a source of worry. There still a number of pieces to the puzzle. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on Eurozone credit default swaps.

In the GBP, traders are focused on U.K. elections tomorrow. Tory candidate Cameron appeared to be gaining, but the vote could be close. GBP dealers are watching the election headlines.  Polls suggest odds for a hung Parliament is possible. If no party wins a clear majority on Thursday, difficult decisions could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play.

Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD is bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is trading steady. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is up and the EURJPY cross is steady. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:45
CAD 1.0241 -10 AUD 0.9106 18 Gold 1172 -1.25
CNY 6.8273 3 NZD 0.7195 3 WTI 82.59 -0.19

The risk trade has been on and off in the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). They are mixed. The trio are seen as an anti-EUR trade. As expected, the RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.50% (+25bp), but the central bank also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates could be hiked on June 1. Monetary officials have little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are down. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are in the black now. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.60%, 0 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:45
NIK 11057 0 DAX 6005 -2 DJIA 10927 24
HSI 20328 -436 FTSE 5403 -8 S&P 1174 3
SSEC 2857 22 SMI 6484 0 NAS 2424 7
ASX 4674 -63       TSE 12031 -166

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America, U.S. mortgage statistics, ADP private employment data and the Service PMI are slated. Weekly EIA energy data are also on the docket. 

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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