British Pound Firming; Investors Betting on Conservative Party Victory
The GBP USD trading better overnight as investors increased
bets on a victory for the Conservative Party. No matter how the election pans
out, traders are counting on the new government to mount a steady attack on the
countryâ€™s huge budget deficit. This may mean the implementation of new taxes
and austere cost slashing. U.K.
voters realize that either a Conservative Party or Labour Party victory will
mean aggressive action will have to be taken in order to avoid the same fate as
the Euro Zone economies. Last week, both the S&P and Moodyâ€™s credit rating
agencies said that a debt rating cut is likely depending on how the new
government chooses to attack the countryâ€™s fiscal problems.
Technically, the British Pound is trading inside of a
retracement zone at 1.5163 to 1.5078. Additional support is being provided by
an uptrending Gann angle at 1.5087. The main trend is down, but this market
appears ripe for a short-covering rally. A move above 1.5163 will indicate
strength. Look for a possible acceleration to the downside if 1.5078 fails to
hold as support.
The Dollar Index continued to rally overnight, touching its
highest level since May 2009. After spending April trading on both sides of a
monthly 50% level, the Index is now in a position to test the .618 price. Based
on the major monthly range of 89.62 to 74.17, traders should look for the
market to test 83.72 over the near-term. This market should continue to remain
strong as long at 81.90 holds as support.
Weaker gold, crude and equities are helping to trigger a further
rally in the USD CAD. After building a support base in April, this pair finally
crossed a swing top at 1.0215 to turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.
Upside momentum indicates that the March 26th top at 1.0302 is the next upside
objective followed by a 50% level at 1.0366.
The weakening Canadian Dollar is most likely pleasing to the
Bank of Canada which hinted last week that a strong currency is likely to have
an impact on inflation and monetary policy. This led this analyst to believe
that the BoC was intervening to weaken the Loonie. Look for the USD CAD to
continue to strengthen unless there is renewed demand for higher risk assets.
The AUD USD is under pressure overnight due to renewed
weakness in the U.S.
equity markets. Early Tuesday night the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its benchmark
interest rate as expected by 25 basis points to 4.50%.
Based on comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, this is
likely to be the last rate hike for a while. Stevens feels that the RBA has
reached its objective by bringing rates back to normal between 4.50% and 5.00%.
He further added that he feels inflation was likely to remain in the upper half
of the RBAâ€™s target range.
Besides the weakness in the equity markets overnights and
the falling demand for higher risk commodities, traders also remain a little
cautious as to whether a tighter monetary policy in China will curtail demand
for Aussie goods and services. Based on the main weekly range of .8577 to
.9387, traders should look for the Aussie to correct to .8982 to .8886.
The NZD USD is falling in sympathy with the Australian
Dollar and a lack of demand for higher yielding assets. Based on this weekâ€™s
policy statement by the RBA, many traders now feel the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
will wait until the second half of the year before raising rates.
The chart formation suggests that .7199 is a key pivot
number. Falling below this level suggests a test of the point .618 level at
.7163. The main trend is up and does not turn down unless the swing bottom at
.7052 is taken out. The first clue that a change in trend is imminent will be
the breaking of a long-term uptrending Gann angle at .7121.
The Euro continued to trade lower overnight, reaching its
lowest level since February 2009. Although a bailout agreement was reached by
the Greek government, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary
Fund over the week-end, bearish traders have shifted their focus to the growing
fiscal problems in Spain and
Hedge fund and large traders continue to press the
short-side. Short-term conditions are oversold, but there is no indication of a
let up in the selling pressure. This type of formation typically ends with a
closing price reversal bottom. Traders should start watching the 60-minute
chart for clues as to whether bearish conditions are getting ready to shift.
Tomorrow the European Central Bank will hold a meeting.
Traders expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The policy statement is
expected to address that fact that rates will remain low for an extended period
of time as the Euro Zone will need time to sort out its financial mess. ECB
President Trichet is also expected to address the problems in Greece, Portugal
In his after meeting speech, he is most likely going to try to boost the
confidence in Euro investors.
The weak Euro is sending the USD CHF sharply higher. Traders
continue to expect the Swiss National Bank to intervene to defend its currency.
Based the 12-month range of 1.1965 to .9918, the market is now trading inside
the retracement zone of this range at 1.0914 to 1.1183. Look for this pair to
continue to strengthen as long as the low end of the range holds with the upper
end the next objective. The severely oversold Euro may trigger a short-covering
rally in the Swiss Franc. Aggressive traders have to be careful about chasing
this market higher.
The lack of follow-through to the downside in the U.S. equities
markets is helping to underpin the USD JPY. A turnaround in demand for higher
yielding assets is likely to trigger a positive response in the Dollar/Yen with
a move through the former top at 94.77 likely. The daily chart indicates that a
break through an uptrending Gann angle at 94.59 is likely to be the first sign
of weakness and could lead to an acceleration to the downside. A resumption in
stock market selling pressure should be the catalyst for this break.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.