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Wednesday May 5, 2010 - 13:14:00 GMT
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Stocks Slightly Lower Ahead of Opening after Choppy Overnight Trade

U.S. stock markets are called slightly lower this morning after a choppy overnight trade. Today could be another day of risk reduction as traders are still being influenced by a multitude of factors including Euro Zone sovereign debt issues, new financial market restrictions, the threat of international terrorism and possible criminal action against Goldman Sachs. The range may be limited, however, as traders may begin to cut back on trading ahead of this Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.

Tuesday’s action in the June E-mini S&P 500 reaffirmed the main down trend while also confirming the weekly closing price reversal top. This pattern usually suggests the start of a 2 to 3 week correction. Downside momentum could take this market back to 1134.00 over the near-term. Short-term oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally before the downtrend resumes.

June Treasury Bonds are up overnight after soaring in a flight to safety rally on Tuesday. Money could leave the stock market once again if traders continue to dump higher risk equities. Additional pressure may come from funds leaving gold and crude oil. Traders are seeking protection in the lower risk, lower yielding T-Bond as sentiment has shifted out of higher risk assets. Traders are also taking protection against the possibility that sovereign debt issues in the Euro Zone could surge to global proportions.

June Gold is trading lower overnight following Tuesday’s closing price reversal top. Earlier in the week, speculators were buying gold as they hedged against a possible collapse in the Euro. Traders took profits as the market neared $1200 and the U.S. Dollar soared. Technically, the closing price reversal top indicates more downside action is likely. This type of trading pattern suggests that a break to $1158.60 is likely over the near-term. A break in U.S. equities could help accelerate gold to the downside as traders will be forced to sell the metal to meet margin calls.

A drop in demand for higher risk assets and the possibility that a slowdown in the Euro Zone economy will lead to lower demand for energy is helping to drive June Crude Oil lower. The 4.78% drop on Tuesday is a sign that this break was triggered by more than profit-taking. The bigger picture suggests that a correction to 79.17 to 77.18 is likely over the near-term. Losses could be limited by the lingering problems in the Gulf with the oil spill.

The Dollar Index continued to rally overnight, touching its highest level since May 2009. After spending April trading on both sides of a monthly 50% level, the Index is now in a position to test the .618 price. Based on the major monthly range of 89.62 to 74.17, traders should look for the market to test 83.72 over the near-term. This market should continue to remain strong as long at 81.90 holds as support.

The June British Pound is trading better overnight as investors increased bets on a victory for the Conservative Party. No matter how the election pans out, traders are counting on the new government to mount a steady attack on the country’s huge budget deficit. This may mean the implementation of new taxes and austere cost slashing. U.K. voters realize that either a Conservative Party or Labour Party victory will mean aggressive action will have to be taken in order to avoid the same fate as the Euro Zone economies. Last week, both the S&P and Moody’s credit rating agencies said that a debt rating cut is likely depending on how the new government chooses to attack the country’s fiscal problems.

Technically, the British Pound is trading inside of a retracement zone at 1.5163 to 1.5078. Additional support is being provided by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.5087. The main trend is down, but this market appears ripe for a short-covering rally. A move above 1.5163 will indicate strength. Look for a possible acceleration to the downside if 1.5078 fails to hold as support.

Weaker gold, crude and equities are helping to trigger further weakness in the June Canadian Dollar. After building a distributive top in April, this pair finally crossed a swing bottom at .9789 to turn the main trend to down on the daily chart. Downside momentum indicates that the March 26th bottom at .9705 is the next downside objective followed by a 50% level at .9649.

The weakening Canadian Dollar is most likely pleasing to the Bank of Canada which hinted last week that a strong currency is likely to have an impact on inflation and monetary policy. This led this analyst to believe that the BoC was intervening to weaken the Loonie. Look for the Canadian Dollar to continue to weaken unless there is renewed demand for higher risk assets.

The June Euro continued to trade lower overnight, reaching its lowest level since February 2009. Although a bailout agreement was reached by the Greek government, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund over the week-end, bearish traders have shifted their focus to the growing fiscal problems in Spain and Portugal.

Hedge fund and large traders continue to press the short-side. Short-term conditions are oversold, but there is no indication of a let up in the selling pressure. This type of formation typically ends with a closing price reversal bottom. Traders should start watching the 60-minute chart for clues as to whether bearish conditions are getting ready to shift.

Tomorrow the European Central Bank will hold a meeting. Traders expect interest rates to remain unchanged. The policy statement is expected to address that fact that rates will remain low for an extended period of time as the Euro Zone will need time to sort out its financial mess. ECB President Trichet is also expected to address the problems in Greece, Portugal and Spain. In his after meeting speech, he is most likely going to try to boost the confidence in Euro investors.

The weak Euro is sending the June Swiss Franc sharply lower. Traders continue to expect the Swiss National Bank to intervene to defend its currency. Based the 12-month range of .8222 to 1.0099, the market is now trading inside the retracement zone of this range at .9161 to .8939. Look for this pair to continue to weaken as long as the high end of the range holds with the lower end the next objective. The severely oversold Euro may trigger a short-covering rally in the Swiss Franc. Aggressive traders have to be careful about chasing this market lower.

The lack of follow-through to the downside in the U.S. equities markets is helping to pressure the June Japanese Yen. A turnaround in demand for higher yielding assets is likely to put pressure on the June Japanese Yen with a move through the former bottom at 1.0558 likely. The daily chart indicates that a break through a downtrending Gann angle at 1.0623 is likely to be the first sign of strength and could lead to an acceleration to the upside. A resumption in stock market selling pressure should be the catalyst for this break.


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