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Thursday May 6, 2010 - 09:59:51 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- ECB Outcome to be Watched

 

The Daily Forex View


ECB Outcome to be Watched

10:00 GMT- May 6 (global-view.com)  The main focus at this hour is the outcome of the ECB meeting today with the markets wondering what if the central bank will announce a new round of quantitative easing. We had figured that the major central banks were beyond this? The other key question is what the ECB is going to do about accepting below investment grade collateral (Greece). Reporters will focus in the press conference on where the central bank has made about-turns on pledges made very recently.

Looking ahead, the U.K. sees national elections today with an the outcome seen as uncertain. The U.K. will wind up with some sort of a coalition government. Germany also sees regional elections in North Rhineland Westphalia this weekend. There is a good chance that Angela Merkel could wind up losing control of the German Upper House and have to for a grand coalition to run that body. This would mean she would be n a lame-duck situation in the final three years of her term as Chancellor. 

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:46
EUR 1.2775 -47 JPY 119.78 -43 JPY 141.02 -57
GBP 1.5041 -62 GBP 84.93 4 CHF 167.56 -119
CHF 1.1140 -33 CHF 1.4231 -95 CHF vs.    
JPY 93.76 1       JPY 84.17 26

The EURUSD is lower. The GBPUSD is down, while the EURGBP is steady. The Greek bailout plan is moving along but is still a source of worry. There still a number of pieces to the puzzle. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on Eurozone credit default swaps.

In the GBP, traders are focused on U.K. elections. Tory candidate Cameron appeared to be gaining, but the vote may be close. GBP dealers are watching the election headlines. Polls suggest odds for a hung Parliament is possible. If no party wins a clear majority on Thursday, difficult decisions could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play.

Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD is bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF is suddenly sharply lower. SNB intervention tactics had seen the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. the CHF. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.  

The USDJPY pair is steady and the EURJPY cross is off. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:46
CAD 1.0348 47 AUD 0.9045 -9 Gold 1178 2.20
CNY 6.8271 -2 NZD 0.7246 80 WTI 80.01 0.29

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). Today the commodity currencies are mixed. The RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.50% (+25bp) on Tuesday, but also signaled a policy pause. An onerous mining tax proposed by the government has undermined confidence in the unit. Bank of Canada interest rates are seen being hiked June 1. Monetary officials have little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are up. We favor the AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are higher. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.57%, +3 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:46
NIK 10696 -362 DAX 5976 17 DJIA 10868 20
HSI 20133 -194 FTSE 5342 0 S&P 1166 2
SSEC 2740 -117 SMI 6617 0 NAS 2402 3
ASX 4573 -101       TSE 11875 -156

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  The ECB will announce its latest policy decision. No policy changes are likely. In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims and 1Q10 productivity data are due. Weekly natural gas data are slated as well. The Canadian Ivey PMI data are widely followed.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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