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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 06/05/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis May 6, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm Payrolls

Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls. The Payrolls measure the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 187.00K.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated before breaking the support 1.2948, surpassing both the resistance & supports with about 10 pips each, fooling us that there is a break, only to frustrate us with a move in the opposite direction. Then, it made up its mind, and broke 1.2948, falling & reaching both suggested target 1.2885 & 1.2820. Today, the price is still trading below the falling channel, clearly, and that leaves us with no reason to change the negative technical outlook (even after a drop of 550+ pips). In fact, this outlook will not change unless we go back to trade inside the channel, which is something that needs a break of the resistance 1.2935 to happen. Before this important resistance, there is short term resistance at 1.2854, this is the one we will focus on for today. If the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2854, it will have a chance to take a breath, and test the bottom of the broken channel at 1.2935. In case we actually surpass this first target and go back to trade within the channel, we will be heading towards the first Fibonacci retracement level for the whole drop from 1.3347. The support is at 1.2802, breaking it is a sign that everything is going ok for the downtrend, and that it will continue to target new lows below 1.30, for today they are 1.2721 & 1.2638.

Support:
• 1.2802: important intraday support, protecting yesterday’s low.
• 1.2721: Fed 12th 2009 important low.
• 1.2638: Feb 18th 2009 high.

Resistance:
• 1.2854: important intraday top.
• 1.2935: a clear hourly support, and the retest level for the broken channel.
• 1.3002: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.3347.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 94.56, and successfully reached the first suggested target 93.91, and stopped halfway to the second target 93.30. What is more important than this is that the price has broken both the rising trend line from 92.80 & 91.58. This very important event has turned the technical outlook negative. Thus, we expect the sliding to go on for another day, but it needs to go through the 93.62 gate. If his support is broken, everything will go ok for the downtrend, and the next set of targets will be 92.97 & the important 92.13. On the other hand, the most notable resistance is at 94.01, we do not expect it to be broken at this stage, such a break would make a “small surprise”. But, if this surprise actually happens, a strong jump will take us to 95.05 at least, and may be later 95.90.

Support:
• 93.62: intraday support.
• 92.97: Apr 28th low.
• 92.13: Apr 19th top.

Resistance:
• 94.01: the retest level for the broken trend channel..
• 95.05: Aug 24th high.
• 95.90: Jul 29th low.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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