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Thursday May 6, 2010 - 10:18:22 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 06/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 6,
Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Nonfarm
Payrolls. The Payrolls measure the change in the number of employed people
during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll
accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross
domestic product of the United States. It is the single most important piece of
data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best
overview of the economy. The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can
be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of
fluctuated before breaking the support 1.2948, surpassing both the resistance
& supports with about 10 pips each, fooling us that there is a break, only
to frustrate us with a move in the opposite direction. Then, it made up its
mind, and broke 1.2948, falling & reaching both suggested target 1.2885
& 1.2820. Today, the price is still trading below the falling channel,
clearly, and that leaves us with no reason to change the negative technical
outlook (even after a drop of 550+ pips). In fact, this outlook will not change
unless we go back to trade inside the channel, which is something that needs a
break of the resistance 1.2935 to happen. Before this important resistance,
there is short term resistance at 1.2854, this is the one we will focus on for
today. If the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2854, it will have a chance to take a
breath, and test the bottom of the broken channel at 1.2935. In case we actually
surpass this first target and go back to trade within the channel, we will be
heading towards the first Fibonacci retracement level for the whole drop from
1.3347. The support is at 1.2802, breaking it is a sign that everything is going
ok for the downtrend, and that it will continue to target new lows below 1.30,
for today they are 1.2721 & 1.2638.
important intraday support, protecting yesterdayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 1.2721: Fed 12th
2009 important low.
â€˘ 1.2638: Feb 18th 2009
â€˘ 1.2854: important intraday top.
1.2935: a clear hourly support, and the retest level for the broken
â€˘ 1.3002: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from
The Dollar/Yen broke the
support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 94.56, and successfully reached the
first suggested target 93.91, and stopped halfway to the second target 93.30.
What is more important than this is that the price has broken both the rising
trend line from 92.80 & 91.58. This very important event has turned the
technical outlook negative. Thus, we expect the sliding to go on for another
day, but it needs to go through the 93.62 gate. If his support is broken,
everything will go ok for the downtrend, and the next set of targets will be
92.97 & the important 92.13. On the other hand, the most notable resistance
is at 94.01, we do not expect it to be broken at this stage, such a break would
make a â€śsmall surpriseâ€ť. But, if this surprise actually happens, a strong jump
will take us to 95.05 at least, and may be later
â€˘ 93.62: intraday support.
â€˘ 92.97: Apr 28th
â€˘ 92.13: Apr 19th top.
â€˘ 94.01: the retest
level for the broken trend channel..
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
â€˘ 95.90: Jul
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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