The euro depreciated sharply vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested bids
around the US$ 1.2690 level and was capped around the $1.2855 level. The common currency reached its lowest level
since March 2009 as traders found big stops below the US$ 1.2740 level,
representing a major technical retracement level.Dealers dumped the pair after European
Central Bank President Trichet reported the Governing Council did not discuss bailouts
for other eurozone countries including Spain and Portugal and did not discuss
buying eurozone debt in the secondary market in a new quantitative easing
policy.Trichet countered that Spain and
Portugal â€śare not Greeceâ€ť yet the spread between Greek bunds and Spanish 10-year
debt continues to widen.The threat of
additional sovereign credit contagion in the eurozone is significant and may
eventually require additional ECB policies, an International Monetary Fund
bailout, or other measures.Moodyâ€™s
warned sovereign credit risk may spread to other banking systems including
Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and the United Kingdom.Eurozone officials continue to signal that
Greece will not default on its debt and the IMF indicated its bailout package
gives Greece about eighteen months of financial assistance.Money is moving into U.S. Treasuries on the
heels of the European debt crisis with the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury
Notes at a four-month low of 3.53%.As
expected, the European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rare unchanged at
1.00% overnight.Data released in
Germany today saw March factory orders up 5.0% m/m and 26.1% y/y, an
improvement from Februaryâ€™s prints.March industrial production data will be released tomorrow.In
U.S. news, data released today saw Q1 non-farm productivity print at 3.6%,
down from the downwardly-revised +6.3% prior reading.Q1 unit labour costs came in at -1.6%, up
from the revised -5.6%.Weekly initial
jobless claims printed at 444,000, down from the revised prior reading of
451,000, and continuing jobless claims printed at 4.594 million, down from the
revised prior reading of 4.653 million.Also,
ICSC chain store sales fell significantly to +0.8% from the prior reading of
+9.0%.Tomorrowâ€™s April non-farm
payrolls data will be closely scrutinized.Non-farm payrolls growth is expected to print around +190,000 while the
unemployment rate is expected to print around 9.7%.Fed Chairman Bernanke reported he â€śsees some
reasons for optimismâ€ť even though bank credit remains tight.Richmond Fed President Lacker noted â€śMy worry
is that we will let the obvious slack in the economy lull us into a false sense
of security regarding inflation.â€ťBoston
Fed President Rosengren warned it â€śis likely to take yearsâ€ť before the economy
attains â€śfull employmentâ€ť again.Euro
bids are cited around the US$ 1.2295 level.
The yen appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ÂĄ93.30 level and was capped around
the ÂĄ93.95 level. Japanese financial
markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday.Some Democratic Party of Japan legislators indicated the government
should send the message that it will require Bank of Japan to continue â€śboldâ€ť
monetary easing to counter deflation.Traders
continue to move into yen as a safe haven play on account of the global
sovereign credit crisis.Last week, Bank
of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged overnight and reported it will help
lenders provide credit, possibly using methods from 1998-1999 when lenders gave
cash to lenders to address the credit squeeze.The headline overnight unsecured call rate target was maintained at
0.1%. BoJ Governor Shirakawa directed the central bank to stimulate lending
â€świth a view to strengthening the foundations for economic growth.â€ť He added
â€śThe government is also trying to map out an economic growth strategy, and the
Bank of Japan hopes to give a boost to such efforts with new policy measures.â€ť Last
weekâ€™s data released in Japan evidence an improving economy that is mired in a
deflationary spiral and the central bankâ€™s enhanced rhetoric last week reflects
that dichotomy.The new forecast for
inflation suggests deflation will end during the next fiscal year with CPI at
+0.1%.April monetary base data will be
released tonight.The Nikkei 225 stock
index lost 3.27% to close at ÂĄ10,695.69.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ÂĄ96.85 level.The
euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around
the ÂĄ118.85 level and was capped around the ÂĄ120.70 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ÂĄ140.20 level while the Swiss franc moved
higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ84.70 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8266 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8263. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange
reported â€śAs the global economy recovers, cross-border capital inflows will
increase in 2010 because of yuan appreciation expectations, interest rate
differentials between Chinese and foreign currencies, and domestic asset prices.China will prevent abnormal capital inflows
from enlarging asset bubbles through in-depth analysis and precise crackdowns.â€ťPeopleâ€™s Bank of China is expected to revalue
its yuan currency at any time.Ratings
agency Fitch reported Chinese banks may need to be bailed out â€śif we do see a
pretty serious correction in the property market.â€ť
British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.4925 level and was capped around the $1.5145 level. Attention is focused on todayâ€™s General
Election in the U.K. with most pollsters predicting David Cameron and the Tory
party will win a minority government.If
Cameron wins, the size of his victory will become crucial and will likely
determine which party he tries to form a majority government with.At the very least, todayâ€™s likely election
result suggests the Blair-Brown Labour movement of the past fifteen years has
runs its course. A Cameron victory could be positive for sterling as the Tories
voted against the Labour initiative years ago to join the euro and accede
Economic and Monetary Union.Data
released in the U.K. today saw April PMI services fall back to 55.3 from the
prior reading of 56.5.Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.4335 level.The euro depreciated vis-Ă -vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8425 level and
was capped around the ÂŁ0.8520 level.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.1085 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1245 level. The franc went on a rampage today as the Swiss
National Bank was deemed to have been absent from the market.The central bank may have deemed that euro
sentiment is so negative that it would have been futile to buy euro for francs
today.The CHF 1.4320 level on the cross
has been talked about a lot as a key level the SNB has supported recently.Data released in Switzerland today saw April
consumer price inflation climb 0.9% m/m and 1.4% y/y.Higher inflation rates are troubling for the
SNB because if they lead to higher interest rates, they could engender further
strength in the franc.April
unemployment and March retail sales data will be released tomorrow.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.1270 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4105 level while the British pound depreciated vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6705 level.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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