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Thursday May 6, 2010 - 21:48:07 GMT
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Australian Dollar Plunges as Investors Shed Risky Assets

The AUD USD plunged this morning through an old swing bottom at .9001 and a major 50% price level at .8983. The Aussie broke as traders liquidated positions in higher yielding currencies and risky assets.

Technically, the Aussie is testing uptrending Gann angle support at .8897 and a major Fibonacci retracement level at .8886. A break through this support cluster will likely trigger an acceleration to the downside. Regaining the 50% level will be a sign of a developing short-covering rally.

The NZD USD is trading sharply lower in an expanded range. Traders are dumping higher yielding assets in favor of safety. This morning a minor retracement level at .7188 to .7156 failed, setting up further decline to a major uptrending Gann angle at .7126. This angle has held several times in the past few weeks. A failure to hold this time down sets up a further decline to last swing bottom at .7052. A break through this level will turn the main trend to down on the daily chart.

Weaker equities and crude oil are helping to fuel an upside breakout in the USD CAD. This morning the Dollar/CAD broke through a 50% retracement level at 1.0366. This triggered a further rally to the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0463. Watch for a possible technical bounce at this level. It is likely to be short-term however, as upside momentum indicates further upside action is possible.

In an unusual move today, the USD CHF is trading lower despite the weaker Euro. For months a weaker Euro meant a weaker Swiss Franc. Traders had been selling the Swiss Franc in anticipation of further intervention by the Swiss National Bank. Today, it has been rumored that the SNB had reached its objective and is no longer going to flood the market with Francs. This is the catalyst behind today’s weakness in the Dollar/Swiss.

The GBP USD is plunging at the mid-session. Downside momentum is strong enough, making the late March bottom at 1.4797 the next likely price target. Traders are reacting to the on-going election and speculation that a hung parliament may result. Furthermore, Sterling investors realize that this election means that the U.K. government is getting closer to proposing austere financial measures in an effort to tighten up the huge budget in order to avoid a slash in its debt rating.

The huge drop in the stock market is triggering a flight to safety rally in the Japanese Yen. The USD JPY is down sharply after the trend changed to down on Wednesday. Investors are dumping U.S. equities and repatriating their funds to Japan to pay off loans made in Yen. Downside momentum is building which means the mid-April bottom at 91.59 is the next target.

This morning the Greek government passed its new cost cutting measures, making Greece eligible for the bailout money offered by the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The Euro continued to weaken however, as bearish traders are no focusing their attention on similar fiscal problems developing in Spain and Portugal.

This morning the ECB voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0%. It also added that rates would remain low with financial uncertainty still expected to be a draw on the Euro Zone economy. ECB President Jean Claude Trichet offered no solid relief to investors in his post-meeting press conference. Many traders had expected him to make a much stronger statement regarding the Euro Zone problems but his talk failed to instill any confidence in investors. In fact, the Euro continued to break sharply after his press conference.


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Mon 10 Sep 2018
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