European Market Update: UK election results confirms hung Parliament; G7 confirms teleconference call later today to tackle spreading debt crisis (Trade the News)
Friday, May 07, 2010
European Market Update: UK election results confirms hung Parliament; G7 confirms teleconference call later today to tackle spreading debt crisis
***Economic Data*** - (SZ) Swiss Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 4.1%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: % v 4.1%e - (FI) Finland Feb GDP Indicator: -0.7% v -0.2% prior - (FR) France Mar Trade Balance: -â‚¬4.7B v -â‚¬3.4Be; Central Gov't balance: -â‚¬28.9B v -â‚¬21.8B prior - (CZ) Czech Mar Trade balance (CZK): 18.3BB v 20.0Be - (CZ) Czech Mar Industrial Output Y/Y: 10.2% v 8.1%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -18.3% v -23.6% prior - (CZ) Czech Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.9% v 0.0%e - (SZ) Swiss Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.5% v 2.8%e - (SW) Sweden Mar Industrial Production M/M: 4.0% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 6.7% v 0.7%e - (SW) Sweden Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 4.2% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 24.0% v 12.5% prior - (SW) Sweden Apr Trade Balance (SEK): 29.8B v 4.4B prior - (DE) Denmark Mar Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 2.5% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: %v -6.3% prior - (AS) Austria Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.8% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.1% prior - (UK) Apr New Car registrations Y/Y: 11.5% v 26.6% prior - (UK) Q1 England and Wales Individual Insolvencies: 35.7K v 35.6K q/q - (UK) Apr Halifax House Price M/M: -0.1% v 0.5%e; 3M/Y: 6.6% v 7.0%e - (TT) Taiwan Apr Total trade Balance: $2.2B v $1.2Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 47.8% v 52.7%e; Total Imports Y/Y: 52.6% v 70.4%e - (NO) Norway Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.8% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -5.0% v -6.2% prior - (NO) Norway Mar Industrial Prod Manufacturing M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.3%e - (UK) Apr PPI Input M/M: 0.6% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 13.1% v 13.1%e - (UK) Apr PPI Output M/M: 1.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 4.8%e ; highest reading since Oct 2008 - (UK) Apr PPI Output Core M/M: 1.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 3.5%e - (IC) Iceland Apr Preliminary trade Balance (ISK): 6.3B v 11.5B prior - (GR) Greece Apr Consumer price index Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.9% prior; EU Harmonized Y/Y: 4.7% v 3.9% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Following the sharp declines seen in Asian and US equity trading, European indices opened the session to the downside, led by declines in Spain, Portugal, France and Greek as bond spreads widened. Also, the FTSE 100 opened the session lower as the UK is nearing a hung parliament. In early trading the French banking as they have started to disclosed their exposures to the peripheral EU economies. At the open shares of SocGen were off by more than 5%. Other including losers included Germany's BASF, on reports that the company might bid for chemical firm Cognis. Also, Munich Re opened lower following its Q1 earnings on concerns about the company's outlook and RBS opened down by more than 6% after its trading statement. As the equity session progressed, equities moved off of the lows, following HSBC's Q1 trading update, comments from Moody's on Italy and rumors of a possible ECB conference call with local banks. As of , equity markets remained in negative territory ahead of Friday's G7 finance ministers conference call, German vote on the Greek aid package and US payrolls.
- In Individual Stocks: Aurubia [NDA.GE]: Reports H1 Net â‚¬119M v loss â‚¬53M y/y, pretax profit â‚¬167M v loss â‚¬59My/y , Rev â‚¬4.54B v â‚¬3.03B y/y || Belgacom [BELG.BE]: Reports Q1 Net â‚¬638M v â‚¬622Me, EBITDA â‚¬931M v â‚¬935Me, Rev â‚¬1.64B v â‚¬1.6Be || Rheinmetall AG [RHM.GE]: Reports Q1 Net â‚¬19M v â‚¬16Me, EBIT â‚¬39M v â‚¬35Me, Rev â‚¬800M v â‚¬823Me || Tognum [TGM.GE]: Reports Q1 adj Net â‚¬22.3M, Rev â‚¬509.4M v â‚¬560Me; Confirms 2010 outlook of Rev â‚¬2.3-3.5B || Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS.UK]: Reports Q1 Net loss Â£248M v loss Â£800Me; Op profit Â£713M v Â£1.3B y/y; Total Rev Â£8.95B v Â£7.5Be || Munich Re [MUV2.GE]: Reports Q1 Net Profit â‚¬482M v â‚¬416Me, Op Profit â‚¬770M v â‚¬708Me, Rev â‚¬10.63B v â‚¬10Be || Italcementi [IT.IT]: Reports Q1 EBITDA â‚¬135.7M,-28.2% y/y, Rev â‚¬1.07B, -10.7% y/y || ITV [ITV.UK]: Issues trading update; Reports Q1 Rev Â£450M v Â£425M y/y || HSBC [HSBA.UK] Provides interim statement: Notes very good Q1 performance and well ahead of Q1 2009; global banking and markets saw slightly lower trading activity after Q1
- Speakers: Japan's Vice Fin Min Tamaki commented that the Greek crisis had moved beyond the EU borders; G7 conference call unlikely tto result in currency intervention ***German Fin Min Schaeuble commend as the lower house debated the Greek aid program that Germany must defend common European currency. He noted that every other alternative for Greek aid package would be more costly to German taxpayers *** Bank of Spain (BOP) Guided Q1 GDP +0.1% y/y *** China Housing Minister commented that an overly fast property price increase could lead to social problems and such growth has curbed in some cities. *** G7 Finance minister and central bankers to signal support for Portugal and Spain in teleconference - WSJ *** Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) commented that it would closely monitor global developments; to take appropriate actions where needed ***Moody's Official commented that he did not see a sovereign rating cut for Portugal ***S&P European Credit Chief stated that market sentiment towards a country could lead to vicious circle when assessing sovereign ratings. The markets could send wrong signals, but increase in refinancing costs could have impact on credit quality ***Italy Cabinet approved Greek aid package
- Currencies/Fixed Income: Extreme volatility continued into the European session but unlike the levels experienced in the latter part of Thursday's NY session. The liquidating mood that characterized the US afternoon moved towards a more sense of calm as markets looked towards central bankers to re-establish order. EUR/USD rebounded from 1.2630 European lows amid speculation that the ECB wouldl hold a conference call with 47 of the largest banks in Europe to stabilize the money markets. Other chatter circulated that the swap lines with central banks might be reinstated. Analyst believe that the ECB seeks to stress there sufficient liquidity conditions. Dealers note that the overall euro problems will not simply disappear and would any central bank intervention as a means to re-establish shorts. The GBP was volatile as the election results trickled in. The confirmation of a hung Parliament couple with Moody comments that fiscal consolidation must begin right away sent the GBP/USD down 250 pips from session highs to test fresh one-year lows below 1.4495 level before stabilizing. The USD/JPY held steady above the 92 handle for the bulk of the morning.
- Geopolitical:UK Elections: Final voting results have swayed in favour for the Conservative party, though unable to acquire the necessary 326 seats to gain Parliamentary majority. As of 1030BST the polls reported Conservatives claiming 291 seats with 617 seats reporting results. BBC forecasts indicate that they will end the general elections with 306 seats. The shift in momentum for the Tories began with initial voting results from northern England, which has traditionally voted Labour. Similar scenarios occurred through other regions including various parts of central and southern England. Reportedly, the prospects of a Labour loss has led to a possibility of a coalition between Labour and Liberal Democrats, however, the votes generated by Liberal Democrats were not as high as previously forecasted. It still remains to be seen which party will be able to form a government. *** Euro region government officials to meet in Brussels today to discuss various debt crisis concerns, including finalising Greek aid plan and discussing preemptive measures to avoid future crisis.
- Greece passes austerity package. The legislation passed by 172 votes to 121 in the 300-member chamber vote ***In Germany the biggest test for Merkel's government will come from the German electorate. In fact, North Rhine-Westphaila, Germany's most populous state, is to hold elections Sunday 9th May. Recent media polls point to a decline in support for Chancellor Merkel and the CDU. Alternatively, the opposition party SPU has increased in recent polling figures.*** In Australia the mining industry will start a week-long campaign to block the 40% super-profit tax. Opposition leader Abbot also intends to block the tax but PM Rudd reiterated during the session that the tax was appropriate.
***Notes/Observations: - Incredible price action across all asset classes. - G7 wants to have a conference call re Greece. WSJ reports that G7 Finance minister and central bankers to signal support for Portugal and Spain in teleconference - UK: According to poll results reportedly, UK Conservative Leader Cameron will not win a majority - Overall sentiment remains that markets will continue to push until they have a reason not to.
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:00 (CA) Canada Apr Net Change in Employment: 25.0Ke v 19.9K prior; Unemployment rate: 8.2%e v 8.2% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 5.2% prior - 8:00 (CL) Chile Apr CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.3% prior; CPI Ex-perishables: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior - 8:30 (CL) Chile Apr Trade Balance: $1.3Be v 1.4B prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.5B prior; Total Imports: No est v $4.1B prior - 8:30 (US) Apr Change in NonFarm Payrolls: 190Ke v 162K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 100Ke v 123K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: 20Ke v 17K prior - 8:30 (US) Apr Unemployment Rate: 9.7%e v 9.7% prior - 8:30 (US) Apr Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.1e v 34.0 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Consumer Prices M/M: -0.2%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.4%e v 5.0% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior - 10:30 (US) Treasury's Krueger on US employment - 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser - 13:00 (EU) EU Leaders hold Summit on Greece aid package - 13:15 (US) Former Fed Chaiman Greenspan - 15:00 (US) Mar Consumer Credit: -$3.9Be v -11.5B prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.