The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2795
level and was supported around the $1.2585 level. The common currency retraced some of yesterday‚Äôs
losses and traders were surprised by the sharp increase in U.S. April non-farm
payrolls data that saw a gain of +290,000, about +100,000 stronger than
expectations.The April unemployment
rate ticked higher to 9.9% from 9.7% and April private payrolls printed at
+231,000, up from the upwardly revised print of +174,000 in March.Overall March non-farm payrolls were upwardly
revised to +230,000 from +162,000 and even when temporary census workers are
factored in, today‚Äôs print was relatively strong.Other data saw April average hourly earnings
climb 0.0% m/m and 1.6% y/y while April average weekly hours worked remained
steady at 34.1.The household survey
reported the U.S. economy has now added about 1.6 million jobs year-to-date.Notably, manufacturering jobs increased at
their strongest pace since August 1998 and service sector jobs grew the most
since November 2006.Traders will
struggle to reconcile continued improvements in the U.S. economy against the
backdrop of the weaker aggregate economic climate in Europe and other global
risk factors. There is talk that
yesterday‚Äôs precipitous decline in U.S. equity prices was caused by human error
or program trading.In eurozone news, German March industrial production was up 4.0%
m/m and 8.6%.Many dealers continue to
express disappointment that the European Central Bank did not send more acute
signals yesterday regarding its commitment to shoring up confidence in the
eurozone.ECB President Trichet
indicated policymakers did not discuss purchasing eurozone bonds in the
secondary market but most ECB-watchers believe the central bank will be forced
to adopt extensive quantitative easing policies.Eurozone finance ministers are convening an
emergency meeting in Brussels this evening.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2295 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•92.85 level and was supported around
the ¬•90.00 figure. Bank of Japan
reported it is going to inject ¬•2 trillion into the financial system to assist
in stabilizing the markets following yesterday‚Äôs volatile global trading
activity.BoJ‚Äôs actions represent its
first same-day repurchase operations since December when the central bank
reacted to the Dubai World crisis and BoJ‚Äôs actions were the largest since
December 2008.Finance minister Kan
reported Group of Seven officials will hold a conference call to discuss the
Greek debt crisis later today.Albeit
the intraday low was exactly ¬•90.00, there was no talk the government
intervened overnight and a Ministry of Finance official reported joint currency
intervention is ‚Äúunlikely.‚ÄĚApril
monetary base data released overnight saw growth of 2.9% y/y.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.10% to
close at ¬•10,364.59.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•118.35 level and was supported
around the ¬•113.60 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•138.15 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•83.75 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese
yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8258 in the over-the-counter market, down
from CNY 6.8266. Market chatter surfaced
today that People‚Äôs Bank of China may lifts its interest rate by 27bps no later
than June following its announcement last Sunday that it is raising its reserve
requirement ratio for the third time this year.A Chinese think-tank overnight said China should revalue the yuan
trading band.Many dealers believe China
will revalue the yuan before the end of the second quarter.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.4475 level and was capped around the $1.4935 level.Cable continues to move lower on account of
political kabuki in the U.K.Even though
the Tories‚Äô Cameron won the most votes in yesterday‚Äôs General Election, his
party does not have a majority government and there is a lot of horse-trading
going on between the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and other minor parties
to determine who will be able to form a coalition.The lack of an outright political majority in
the U.K. will hang heavily on the U.K. as that country‚Äôs fiscal deficit is
among the worst in the industrialized world.Many data were released in the U.K. today.First, April Halifax house prices were off
0.1% m/m.Second, April PPI input prices
were up 0.6% m/m and 13.1% y/y while April PPI output was up 1.4% m/m and 5.7%
y/y.Also, PPI core output was up 1.1%
m/m and 4.4% y/y.Cable bids are cited
around the US$ 1.4335 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the
British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8805 level and
was supported around the ¬£0.8440 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.1055 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1175 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw the April
unemployment rate decline to 4.0% from 4.2% in March while March retail sales
printed at 4.5%, up from the prior reading of 3.1%.Swiss Economy minister Leuthard verbally
intervened, saying the franc‚Äôs strength vis-√†-vis the euro must stay within a ‚Äúcertain
limit.‚ÄĚThe franc went on a rampage yesterday
as the Swiss National Bank was deemed to have been absent from the market.The central bank may have deemed that euro
sentiment is so negative that it would have been futile to buy euro for francs.The CHF 1.4320 level on the cross has been
talked about a lot as a key level the SNB has supported before yesterday.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.1270 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4185 level while the British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6090 level.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Feb 2018
00:00 CN, US- Holiday Tue 20 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A 10:00 US- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Feb 2018
00:00 CN- Holiday A All Day flash PMIs A 15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 15:30 US- EIA Crude AA 19:00 US- Fed Meeting Minutes Thu 22 Feb 2018 A 09:00 DE- IFO Survey A 09:30 GB- GDP AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- Final HICP AA 13:30 CA- CPI
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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