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Friday May 7, 2010 - 13:39:25 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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A short story about denying Mr. Market

Key News
  • The Bank of Japan moved to offer Y2,000bn ($21.6bn) in overnight liquidity on Friday to “increase markets’ sense of security” because of turmoil resulting from the debt crisis in Greece. (FT)

USDJPY Daily - Yikes!!!!! [Chart not available in text format.]

 Quotable
The seas are quiet when the winds give o’er;
So calm are we when passions are no more.
For then we know how vain it was to boast
Of fleeting things, so certain to be lost.
Clouds of affection from our younger eyes
Conceal the emptiness which age decries.

The soul’s dark cottage, batter’d and decay’d
Lets in new light through chinks that Time hath made;
Stronger by weakness, wiser men become
As they draw near to their eternal home.
Leaving the old, both worlds at once they view
That stand upon the threshold of the new.
—Edmund Waller, Old Age

FX Trading – A short story about denying Mr. Market

Unfortunately the German parliament voted to approve 22.4 billion euro loans for Greece today.  The euro bounced on the news.  I was hoping of course for lawmakers there to finally drive a stake through the heart of that silly artificial government bungled construct known as the single currency and do us all a favor.  

A stake through the euro is what market is telling us should be done.  But of course, how dare the market make a judgment on the wisdom of political hacks…how dare it!  Speculators must be punished I tell you.  Off to Room 101! [Room 101 of course, is that place where one’s worst imagined fears are brought brilliantly to life in the name of loving rehabilitation by Big Brother in George Orwell’s 1984.]

I’m not sure about you, but watching the IMF pouring my few tax dollars down the rat hole of incompetent welfare states across the European continent in order to improve the self-esteem of the same government leftists that created the problems in the first place isn’t quite my Room 101, but close.  I agree with the Greek protestors—IMF get the hell out and save us all some money.  

I realize it is selfish of me to utter such things.  But I have a good reason.  Given the clown-regime now “running” the US economy, seemingly working overtime to remake our system into one of those “success stories” in Europe, we need to reserve our precious dollars so money can be wasted here at home first.  You remember the phrase, “Rat hole pouring begins at home.”  Well, maybe that wasn’t quite it.  But I think you know where I am going with this.  

Markets are made clear; those markets least hampered by government intervention clear best.  Those markets that clear best are the most efficient.  The most efficient markets are driven by a real market pricing system.  When government interferes with the pricing system, things go badly.  The longer the interference, the worst the inefficiencies become.  No matter how much European or US politicians try to deny this fact—they cannot.  They only continue to lie about it in order to remain in power to serve the corrupt, incompetent, and stupid among us.  [Those are my three boxes for those who love government intervention.]

But, Mr. Market isn’t stupid or incompetent or corrupt.  This is not to say that corrupt people don’t use the market to their benefit.  It is to say that if you are a competent person who is struggling to stave off government intrusion, the market is the only viable way.  Thus, it’s why politicians vilify it so—it is the enemy of the state in so many ways.  Okay…enough of that…sorry…

So here is the story.  In order to spread unity and peace throughout the fair land, and of course consolidate your political power over serfs in the process, you create a non-market-based scheme to achieve those objectives.  Then, when all see if for what it is—a completely bankrupt and corrupt waste of the serfs hard earned money, you attack the market for creating the problem.  It is a beautiful thing and why the stupid are so easily fooled.  And because the corrupt and incompetent benefit so mightily, they join the chorus of damming the market.  What a game! One really must marvel at how well the best players out there have mastered this sport.   

So here is the reality.  The Eurozone created the single currency—a non-market based scheme under the guise that all would benefit mightily from it.  Efficiencies and wealth would abound—guaranteed in fact.  Slam dunk they said.  So, in order to achieve this grand scheme, what a better way to get the serfs buy-in then to first flood them with cash and all the consumer goods they can buy by allowing fiscally questionable countries to borrow at the same interest rate as Germany—the shining fiscal star o the hill.  Years of this has created what is likely the most massive misallocation of capital in the history of mankind—money created without underlying wealth creation to match it. 
So, how to solve this problem? 
  1. Just keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome.
  2. Outlaw the market altogether and create a new 5-year plan.
  3. Drive a stake through the heart of this system and free the serfs from Brussels-based dictates. 
I think where know where Mr. Market is placing his bet.  

Jack Crooks
www.blackswantrading.com

 

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