This morning the U.S. government reported that more
jobs were created last month than estimated. Economist guesses going into the
report was for an increase of 180,000 jobs. The actual report showed a job of
290,000 jobs. The initial reaction by traders was positive for the stock market
while yields popped sending Treasury Bonds lower. This reaction lasted for only
minutes as traders quickly shifted their focus back to the sovereign debt
concerns in the Euro Zone.
The Euro is trading higher overnight. This is helping to
give global equity markets a boost, leading to a call of higher on the U.S. opening.
Although the gains are mild compared to the tremendous losses taken on
Thursday, they nonetheless reflect that there are buyers in the markets today.
Volatility remains high as measured by the VIX. This indicates that the stock
markets will be susceptible to violent swings throughout the day.
June Treasury Bonds which were the recipient of flight to
safety buying on Thursday are trading lower overnight as conditions improved in
the Euro and stock markets. This market is operating on a hair trigger at this
time and traders are waiting to drive it higher as soon as there is a hint of
any instability in the financial markets. As soon as positions are liquidated
in riskier assets, the cash is ready and willing to move into the Treasury
June Gold is trading lower this morning as fear buying has
subsided. The weaker Dollar is not attracting any fresh buying which means
bullish traders are taking a â€śwait and seeâ€ť attitude. At some point during the
day, traders will reestablish goldâ€™s relationship with the Dollar. At this time
it is unknown as to when they will do it.
June Crude Oil is trading steady to better. The near panic
selling which has hit this market throughout the week seems to be subsiding as
traders attempt to bring stability to the markets early this morning. The
charts indicate that crude oil is going to take its cues from the Euro today so
a stable Euro is likely to provide the support which could lead to a strong
The Euro has stabilized overnight. We are still looking at
very low prices, but not seeing the hard selling pressure like we have seen.
Just because the Euro is taking a breather doesnâ€™t mean that the problems are
going away at this time. The Euro is expected to continue to face tremendous
selling pressure as the sovereign debt problems move from country to region to
globe. Restructure, cheap loans.
One of the most serious issues facing the Euro is the lack
of clarity and support from the European Central Bank. As stated several times
before, the Euro Zone is a unique organization and the Euro a unique currency.
The EZ is a made up of countries using one currency but keeping separate
balance sheets. Although it is a union of countries, the current problems have
exposed the fact that there is not much unity. It is currently made up of a
combination of wealthy countries and not so wealthy countries. With the
European Central Bank calling the shots on interest rates, the individual
countries are expected to take care of its own balance sheets.
The current problems in the Euro Zone are showing the
worldâ€™s financial markets what can happen when contaminated loans on the country
level can spread to an economic region then eventually to the globe. It seems
the only way to deal with this situation is to find a central organization that
is at the pulse of the problem and has the means to attempt to fix it. This
organization is the European Central Bank.
The ECB in my opinion has to act quickly and decisively at
this time to stem the spread of the sovereign debt issues in its own backyard,
the Euro Zone. The past two weeks demonstrate that just throwing money at the
problem is not going to help this time. The ECB has to first restructure Greeceâ€™s
loans, and secondly it has to make cheap loans available. This means it has to
lend money at zero percent interest. Finally, the central bank has to start
showing its support for Greece
by purchasing its sovereign debt.
On Thursday, Jean Claude Trichet said that Greece will not default on its
debt. Based on the trading action, it became clear throughout the day that no
one believed him. For several weeks, traders have been asking for clarity.
Yesterdayâ€™s plunge clearly demonstrated that mere words were not going to be
enough to instill confidence into the Euro. Investors want to see aggressive
action. They want to see that the ECB has a grasp of the situation and is
willing to make aggressive moves to ensure that stability of the currency.
If the ECB doesnâ€™t act fast, then look for the fear to move
from the Euro Zone to the U.K.
banks no doubt have exposure to Euro Zone contaminated debt at this time, the
ramifications are expected to worsen if something isnâ€™t done right now to calm
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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