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Friday May 7, 2010 - 20:49:16 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View - Dollar -- Weekly- Unsettled Trade to Continue

 

The Daily Forex View


Weekly- Unsettled Trade to Continue

18:00 GMT- May 7 (global-view.com)  On Friday the markets were picking up the pieces after the instability of markets on Thursday. Legislation in Europe on the Greek bailout progressed pretty much as expected, but the markets did not react positively to the news. In the U.K., the election result had the worst possible outcome with a hung Parliament assured. It may take a while to see who will form the next government, but in any case it will be a weak one and the markets are reading the result as bad for the GBP. A weak government is seen as lacking the mandate to make hard decisions. The outlook for the EUR and GBP remains negative. 

Germany faces a key regional vote in North Rhineland Westphalia on Sunday that could determine the fate of the Merkel government. A weak government in Germany is last thing that the EUR needs. U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a much better than expected gain of 290K in the month. Furthermore, earlier data were revised higher. The data should enhance the role of the USD as an alternative to the EUR. 

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 20:12
EUR 1.2742 -33 JPY 116.49 -329 JPY 135.49 -553
GBP 1.4821 -220 GBP 85.97 104 CHF 164.28 -328
CHF 1.1084 -56 CHF 1.4123 -108 CHF vs.    
JPY 91.42 -234       JPY 82.48 -169

The EURUSD is higher. The GBPUSD is down, while the EURGBP is higher. The Greek situation is an ongoing source of worry. All markets are keeping a sharp eye on Eurozone credit default swaps.

In the GBP,  U.K. elections have resolved nothing and this has seen the GBP fall vs.  the USD and on its crosses. Post-election uncertainty has the GBP in play.

Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD is bearish. The longer-term outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.

The EURCHF has bounced higher. SNB intervention tactics have changed. We wil have to see what happens next.

The USDJPY pair is higher and the EURJPY cross is up. Rating agencies warn that Japan's public finances are a worry. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:12
CAD 1.0430 82 AUD 0.8861 -184 Gold 1207 29.46
CNY 6.8264 -7 NZD 0.7132 -114 WTI 75.16 -4.85

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). Today the commodity currencies are higher. After the RBA raised its cash rate target to 4.50% (+25bp) on Tuesday, it also signaled a policy pause. An onerous mining tax proposed by the government has undermined confidence in the unit. Bank of Canada interest rates are seen being hiked June 1. Monetary officials have little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are down. We favor the AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses closed down. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr last 3.43%, +4 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:12
NIK 10365 -331 DAX 5715 -261 DJIA 10357 -511
HSI 19920 -213 FTSE 5123 -219 S&P 1109 -57
SSEC 2688 -52 SMI Symbol not found ##### NAS 2263 -139
ASX 4481 -93       TSE 11664 -211

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Early Monday will see the latest BOJ Central Bank minutes.  In Europe , German trade figures and a Bank of England policy meeting (delayed due to election) are awaited. No rate changes are expected. In North America, the U.S. and Canada release no major data.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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