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Monday May 10, 2010 - 10:37:34 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/05/2010
Analysis May 10, 2010
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Fundamental Analysis: German CPI
European traders anticipate the publication of the German CPI. The
German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of
goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective
of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends
and inflation in Germany. A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the EUR (as the common way to fight
inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while
a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for
the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of -0.10%.
The Euro broke the support specified in Fridayâ€™s report 1.2735, and we
saw the price drifting away from the channel bottom, reaching both
suggested 1.2854 & 1.2935 successfully. The most important technical
event in the past week was not the exciting collapse, but reaching the
bottom of the falling trend channel on the daily chart (please refer to
the attached chart). And after a rebound of almost 450 pips, this bottom
has proved important. We could be in front of a turning point not just
for the short term but for the medium term as well. But on the other
hand, the price has reached, and stopped at, Fibonacci 38.2% for the
whole drop from 1.3690 to 1.2511. This technical evidence favors that we
are in a rising correction from last weekâ€™s low. A correction that met
its first target (Fibo 38.2%). The question now is will this correction
settle for 38.2% or will it shoot to the more important Fibonacci
retracement levels 50% & 61.8%? This question can be answered with
staying below, or breaking 1.2966. If this resistance is broken, the
correction will go on, and we will target Fibonacci 50% at 1.3105 first,
then 1.3165. Here, difficulties will face this move and make it harder
for it to go on. The support is at 1.2900, breaking it would indicate a
drop, drifting away from 1.2966 and targeting 1.2795 & 1.2690.
â€¢ 1.2900: important intraday support.
â€¢ 1.2795: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2519.
â€¢ 1.2690: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.2519.
â€¢ 1.2966: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.3690.
â€¢ 1.3105: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3690.
â€¢ 1.3165: previous well known support/resistance.
The Dollar/Yenâ€™s rise from 87.99 has slowed down significantly, after
rocketing for more than 500 pips in less than 18 hours! But now we have
come back from excitement to boredom, the good news is that the
important levels are much closer to each other than it was on Friday.
The resistance is at 92.83 & the support is at 92.46. We will be
waiting for one of these two levels to give way. If 92.46 gives way, a
correction for this rocking jump will start, with its first target at
91.22 and the second important target is at 90.61. The resistance is at
92.83, and if broken the price will jump to the resistance that we find
very attractive 93.96. If this one is also broken, 95 will become near,
as we will target 95.05. In the next few days, important evidence on
medium term direction will emerge, and we will be on the watch for them.
â€¢ 92.46: intraday support.
â€¢ 91.22: Fibonacci 38.2% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 90.61: Fibonacci 50% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 92.83: intraday resistance.
â€¢ 93.96: previous hourly resistance.
â€¢ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market
data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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