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Monday May 10, 2010 - 13:10:48 GMT
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Flight-to-Safety Liquidation Drives Treasury Bonds Lower

June Treasury Bonds are trading sharply lower this morning. The newly proposed sweeping-aid package for the Euro Zone is helping to support the Euro and drive up demand for riskier assets. This is triggering a liquidation break in the Treasury futures markets. Last week nervous traders bought Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes for protection in a flight-to-safety rally.


Based on the month-long range of 114’06 to 124’16, expectations are for this market to correction back to the retracement zone at 119’11 to 118’04. A break through 120’12 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside.


U.S. equity markets are trading sharply higher overnight following the announcement by the Euro Union to provide much needed financial aid to the troubled Euro Zone region. This bullish news helped bring assurances to traders that the policymakers are behind the Euro and willing to do what they can to instill confidence in the Euro.


The June E-mini S&P 500 gapped higher on the opening indicating strong upside momentum which has already driven the market past a key retracement zone at 1136.25 to 1155.25. The next upside objective is a downtrending Gann angle at 1176.75.


The NASDAQ and Dow are also posting strong gains which could take the Dow up as much as 500 points today. Buying has been so strong that the frenzy may even trigger a limit-up move in the indices. 


The move by the European Union should shift trader focus back to the global economy recovery. Some of today’s buying is being triggered by a delayed reaction to Friday’s better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data.


June Crude Oil rallied nearly 4% overnight after the European Union provided clarity to the commodity markets with a plan to stabilize the Euro Zone economic region. The EU’s plan provides new financial aid worth nearly a trillion Dollars. The new aid proposal which includes several key measures subject to parliamentary approval calls for the restructuring of debt, low interest loans and the purchase of government and private bonds.


The positive move by the European Union is driving up demand for riskier assets this morning after a hard sell-off last week. In addition to the fresh news out of the Euro Zone, traders are now getting a chance to refocus on the positive economic news out of the U.S. last week including the addition of 290,000 jobs. Traders are now a little more optimistic that the aid package will help stop the slide in the Euro Zone and subsequently put the global economic recovery back on track.


Technically, the rally in June Crude Oil is short-covering at this time, but upside momentum is string enough to make a rally to the retracement zone at 80.83 to 82.32 likely over the near-term.


June Gold has been hit hard by the European Union announcement to provide aid to the ailing Euro Zone economy. Despite the weaker U.S. Dollar, traders are selling off gold overnight although there has been a technical bounce off the low. For several weeks, gold has indicated a decoupling from the Dollar because of speculator buying driven by the crisis in Greece. Last week is was clearly evident as the financial crisis widened in the Euro Zone that traders were treating June Gold as a safe haven market.


Technically, the last leg up was $1156.20 to $1214.90. This formed a retracement zone at $1185.60 to $1178.60. Overnight the 50% price at $1185.60 was tested as the market broke to $1184.40. Profit-takers and buyers stepped in at this price to trigger a mild rally.




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