British Pound finishes Higher; Election Compromise in the Works
The GBP USD opened higher driven by spillover buying from
the Euro, but by mid-session was trading well off its high. The initial rally
was triggered by the possibility that the two major political parties - Labour
and Conservative - were working together to map a plan for a balanced budget
despite the possibility of a hung parliament.
The break began when the Liberal Democrats made a formal
request to join the coalition. The weakness late in the session demonstrates
that investors want to see a clear-cut plan by the next parliament to balance
the budget and reduce the deficit. The request by the Liberal Democrats to join
the Labour and Conservative parties at the planning meeting made traders
nervous about the possibility of a hung parliament.
The strong rally in U.S. equity markets helped to drive
up the USD JPY. The strong rally was actually a combination of less demand for
lower yielding assets and the sale of 2 trillion Yen by the Bank of Japan last
Stronger demand for higher risk assets driven by sharply
higher crude oil and equities helped to drive the USD CAD sharply lower. Based
on the short-term range of .9929 to 1.0738, the main downside target was 1.0333
to 1.0238. This area was tested overnight, stopping the break in the process. A
break under the .618 price level at 1.0238 should trigger an acceleration to
The AUD USD closed up in response to the sharply higher U.S.
equity markets. Mondayâ€™s rally stopped at a 50% price level at .9047. Regaining
and holding above this price could trigger a further rally to .9128.
The main trend remains down despite the rally. This makes
this market susceptible to a near-term correction back towards the low in an
effort to build a secondary higher bottom.
The NZD USD was in a strong position most of the trading
session. The first reason for the rally was greater demand for higher yielding
assets. The second reason for the rally was speculation that the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand
will begin hiking interest rates sooner than expected.
The Euro finished higher but finished well off its high on
Monday. This was expected since the announcement by the European Union to
inject close to a trillion Dollars into the Euro Zone financial and economic
system triggered a short-covering rally but failed to attract new buying.
Traders are now looking at the move by the EU as a
short-term fix to a long-term problem. The arrangement by the EU looks more
like a panic move triggered by pressure from the global economic community. The
size of the aid package itself was larger than any bailouts previously
concocted by other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The very size of the amount of money proposed by the EU and
the subsequent reaction by the Euro brings into question whether the aid
proposal is designed to save the Euro as a currency or increase the Euroâ€™s
value. Although short-covering helped drive the market higher initially, the
way the Euro finished suggests that short-traders are still concerned about the
underlying major problems in the Euro Zone.
While it is clear that the short-term fix proposed by the EU
to buy the government debt of Portugal,
Spain and Greece is supportive at this time,
it isnâ€™t clear what this aggressive proposal will do for the Euro region over
The $1 Trillion rescue plan was able to move the Euro about
2% overnight, but it failed to do anything to address the irresponsible deficit
spending habits of Portugal,
Spain and Greece and any other peripheral
Euro Zone nations which may face similar issues later on. This fact further
supports the thought that the EU powers are not going to get control of the
game until they propose and implement a plan that will help them wrestle control
of the Euro away from the hedge funds.
The lack of clarity by the European Union has been a major
concern for investors throughout the entire Greek episode. This weekendâ€™s
proposal has triggered a similar response. Sure it is easy to see the
short-term ramifications, but what about the long-run. Doubts also are
beginning to surface about the execution of the plan. This sets up the Euro for
a period of volatile trading and most likely another test of the recent low.
Technically, the Euro stopped rallying after slightly
overshooting a .618 retracement level at 1.3038. With the Euro bottoming last
week at 1.2518 and topping this morning at 1.3093, traders should look for a
pull-back into the 1.2805 to 1.2738 range. If the Euro is going to move higher
then fresh buyers will step in at this zone. A failure to do so will drive the
market to new lows.
The action by the EU sets up a classic battle between the
governments of Europe and the hedge funds.
Although the EU made a move which caught the markets by surprise overnight, the
hedge funds still seem to be calling the shots. The battle lines have been
drawn at 1.2805 to 1.2738.Investors
should know in a day or two whether the EU proposal will be given the benefit
of the doubt or if it will go away with hardly even a whimper.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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