Tuesday May 11, 2010 - 03:39:23 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 11-May-2010 - 0337 GMT
The US Equities were up on Greece yesterday. The Dow (10785.14) was up 3.90% and the Nasdaq (2374.67) was up 4.40%. The Dow may move in the range of 10500-11000 in the coming days.
The Asians are mixed today. Both, the Nikkei (10539.01, flat) and the Shanghai (2720.37, up 0.80%) are at very important Support levels. The Hang Seng (20253.67) is down 0.85%. In India, the Sensex (17330.55) was up 3.35% and the Nifty (5193.60) was up 3.50% yesterday. We need to see if the Resistance near 17400-50 on the Sensex holds in the next few days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4615.00) is down 0.16% today.
Crude (77.31) bounced back and closed higher putting an end to the four consecutive days of sharp fall. The Euro aid package which eased the concerns of the demand supported the price rise. As mentioned earlier we might see a rise once again towards 80-82 in the coming days. On the downside Support is seen at 75-74.50 region. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1201.50), though continuing to trade higher, is not showing much strength on its upmove above 1200. However, the overall picture continue to remain bullish for a rise to 1250. But a break below the immediate Support at 1190-80 region might increase the chances of a fall towards 1160-40 before a rise to 1250. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The Euro (1.2765) has weakened again, seeing a low near 1.2720 today, coming down from yesterday's high near 1.3090. This is within the 1.27-31 range we had forecasted yesterday. The price movement suggests that the market has not exactly been frightened by the EU authorities and that the problems cannot be surmounted easily. Dollar-Yen (92.92) has come off from 93.57 yesterday and shows signs of dipping to 92.50-00 today. Risk aversion is still very much in the air. The overwhelming feeling we get is that money is no longer going to be made available for squandering. The Euro-Yen Cross (118.65) has fallen further since yesterday, past the 119.50 support, giving credence to the "risk aversion" theory.
The Pound (1.4820) has fallen sharply from yesterday's high near 1.5055 and could dip to 1.4760 today, despite news that Gordon Brown has decided to step down and is courting Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. Dollar-Swiss (1.1105) has risen well from yesterday's low near 1.0917 and might target 1.1175-1200 today. The Aussie (0.9011) too remains weak, after having slipped from yesterday's high near 0.9077. Expect a range of 0.8960 to 0.9040 today.
The Asian currencies have strengthened a bit today, with the USD-KRW down near 1127.30 and USD-SGD trading below 1.38, near 1.3765. Overall, however the strengthening trend of the Asians faces strong Resistances. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 44.8450 yesterday and is likely to rally towards 45.00-10 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was down 1 bps to be set at 0.42%. The 2Y yield was down 6 bps to quote at 0.86% while the 10Y was unchanged at 3.54%.
The BOE left the interest rates unchanged at 0.50% in its meet yesterday.
No major data release today.
...Actual 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
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