European Market Update: Market rethinks the recent euphoria (Trade the News)
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
European Market Update: Market rethinks the recent euphoria
***Economic Data*** - (SZ) Swiss Apr SECO Consumer Confidence: +14 v -1e; Highest reading since Oct 2007 - (GE) Germany Apr Final Consumer Price Index M/M:-0.1 % v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e - (GE) Germany Apr Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e - (GE) Germany Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.2%e - (HU) Hungary Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.6%e - (TU) Turkey Mar Current Account (TRY): -4.3B v -3.9Be - (SW) Sweden Apr CPI - Headline M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e; CPI Level: 302.36 v 302.89e - (SW) Sweden Apr CPI Underlying M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v2.4%e - (SW) Sweden Q1 Industry Capacity: 84.9% v 79.5% prior - (NE) Netherlands Apr CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e - (NE) Netherlands Apr CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6%e - (SW) Sweden Apr AMV Unemployment Rate: 4.9%e v 5.2% prior - (UK) Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 0.6%e; first positive YoY reading since mar 2008 - (UK) Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 1.6e%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Following the prior session's massive gains on the EU's stability plan, European equities were lower on in the session on a combination of factors including less euphoria with regards to the EU aid measures, higher than expected inflation data in China, widening in credit spreads and political concerns in the UK. Today's losses are being led by Spain's IBEX, France's CAC (due to losses in banks) and the UK's FTSE 100. The major European bourses were down roughly 2% ahead of the NY morning with Spain's IBEX 35 off over 4%
- In Individual Stocks: Phoenix Solar [PS4.GE]: Reported Q1 Rev â‚¬80.4M well below analysts' estimates of â‚¬95Me. Anticipated strong growth in revenues in 2010, a considerable improvement in the earnings situation and a significant increase in revenues generated by international business.|| Carlsberg [CARLB.DE]: Reported Q1 EBIT DKK735M above estimates of DKK635M and Rev of DKK11B in line with estimates. Company reaffirmed 2010 outlook of FY10 op prof in line with FY09 which implies DKK9.4B. Guided FY10 net margin target growth +20% y/y and net profit growth +20% y/y but expected FY10 earnings figures to be skewed towards H2|| Deutsche Post [DPW.GE]: Reported Q1 EBIT â‚¬512M above estimates of â‚¬435M, Net â‚¬1.7B above â‚¬1.5Be, Rev â‚¬12.0B in line with estimates. Company reaffirmed 2010 outlook of net rev up y/y, and EBIT of $1.6-1.9M with underlying EBIT now expected to be at the upper end of guidance || Solarworld [SWV.GE]: Reported Q1 EBIT â‚¬24.8M above estimates of â‚¬21M and Rev â‚¬225.6M below estimates of â‚¬246M|| Fraport [FRA.GE]: Reported Q1 Net â‚¬4M compared to a year-ago figures of â‚¬22.5M, EBITDA â‚¬115.8M above year-ago figures of â‚¬99.8M and Rev â‚¬476.1M above year-ago amount of â‚¬452M y/y. Company expected passenger traffic at Frankfurt Airport to increase by between 1 and 2 percent for the entire fiscal year 2010, despite the negative impact of the volcano eruption This is in with guidance on March 03. Raised Group EBITDA guidance at around â‚¬635M compared to prior EBITDA guidance of â‚¬600M on 03/03). Raised guidance for profit, which is now anticipated to be level with the previous year. Company had guided FY10 Net profit below 2009 levels on 03/03. || K+S [SDF.GE]: Reported Q1 Net â‚¬172.3M above estimates of â‚¬166M and Rev of â‚¬1.5B above estimates of â‚¬1.3Be. Company raises FY10 potash and magnesium products guidance to 6.5M tons (prior below 6M tons on 03/11). Also raised FY10 potash sales volumes to 45-50M tons (prior 45M to 30M on 03/11). Company expected FY 2010, revenues to increase significantly in comparison to the previous year. || Julius Baer [BAER.SZ]: Reported prelim Q1 AUM CHF 175B above the quarter ago amount of CHF 167B q/q. Expects positive net inflow to continue || Lanxess [LXS.GE]: Reported Q1 Net â‚¬104M well above estimates of â‚¬75M and Rev â‚¬1.6B also above estimates of â‚¬1.5B. Guided adj EBITDA â‚¬650-700M || Electricite de France [EDF.FR]: Reported Q1 Rev â‚¬21.9B in line with analysts estimates. Reaffirmed EBITDA growth targets and confirms FY10 EBITA organic growth between 3% to 5%. || Axel Springer [SPR.GE]: Reported final Q1 EBITDA â‚¬119.2M above year-ago amount of â‚¬80.3M and Rev â‚¬663.7M above year-agp amount of â‚¬620M. Guided FY10 up significantly this year and raised guidance for FY10 Ebita to exceed prior guidance of 10 % || Lagardere [MMB.FR]: Reported Q1 Rev â‚¬1.75B slightly above estimates of â‚¬1.7B. Company is encouraged by current trends and while confirming guidance, company may raise the FY10 guidance || Babcock [BAB.UK]: Reported FY09 Net Â£106M below estimates of Â£115M, Pretax Â£129.2M below estimates of Â£143M and Rev Â£1.89B below estimates of Â£2.1B || TUI Travel [TT.UK]: Reported H1 Pretax loss Â£367M worse than estimates of Â£380M and Rev of Â£4.93B below estimates of Â£5B. Estimated that the operating profit impact of cancelled holidays, welfare costs and repatriation to be around Â£90m || Easyjet [EZJ.UK]: Reported H1 Rev Â£1.17B slightly below estimates of Â£1.2Be. Expected to grow our passenger numbers by around 10% and increase both yield and load factor. Due to recent volcano ash company revised its profit expectations for the year to a range of Â£100M to Â£150M at current exchange rates and fuel price would have been Â£175-200M || Douglas [DOU.GE]: Reports H1 Net loss â‚¬4.9M better than a year-ago loss of â‚¬13.9M y/y, Rev â‚¬706.5M above year-ago figures of â‚¬655.5M. Sales growth was projected to lie between 0 and 2% (implies â‚¬1.13-1.15B) and EBT at â‚¬120-130M.|| Q-Cells [QCE.GE]: Reported Q1 Net loss of â‚¬46.4M worse than analysts estimates of â‚¬21M, Rev â‚¬232.3M below estimates of â‚¬234Me || Portugal Telecom [PT]: Telefonica made an offer for PT's 50% stake in Brasicel for â‚¬5.7B
- Speakers: Germany's cabinet approved the Bill for participation in the â‚¬750B EU/IMF Stability plan that was announced over the weekend. Germany's share in Euro aid plan to be â‚¬123B, but the share could be exceeded by up to 20% with Parliamentary committee backing. The German draft bill saw its contribution up to â‚¬147.6B ***Japan Fin Min Kan commented : Must avoid higher JPY currency if to seek to sell FX Reserves. Ponders if Japan needs such high levels of FX reserves *** Libya Oil Chief commented that OPEC would call an emergency meeting if oil dropped to $60 per barrel. He also stressed that OPEC would act if oil tested $100 per barrel *** ECB Nowotny stated that he did not see inflationary risks from the bond purchasing measures. He added that the Euro currency exchange rate always fluctuated and was not a reason for concern. main problem for EU was weak demand and slow growth and the region must focus on curbing its high deficits *** Fed's Kohn commented that the US should rely less on debt to finance housing and consumption. The Vice Gov did not comment on outlook for monetary policy. He noted that the US must get on a more sustainable fiscal path and rely less on exports and adopt a flexible currency policy. China and other economies grew with artificially low currency rates. He noted that the US saving rate should prove reasonably 'durable' and the pickup in business investment could outpace business profits *** ECB's Ordonez commented that the time had come for long-term reforms. He reiterated that the economic output potential would remain below pre crisis levels *** Greece Fin Min official stated that the country would request the first tranche of the EU/IMF rescue package with the amount requested around â‚¬20B and to cover the country's May and Jun financial needs ***France Fin Min Lagarde commented that the market reaction to EU mechanism was 'overdone'. She noted that the Euro currency was viewed as strong by central banks from around the world *** Australia's 2010-11 Federal Budget forecasted a surplus by 2012/13 period, which was three years ahead of prior estimates. Australia raised its 2010 GDP view to 3.25% from 2.75% seen prior.*** S&P stated that Australia 'AAA' sovereign rating was consistent with its recent budget *** Japan PM Hatoyama commented that there have been nodecision on amount of next year's debt issuance and earlier comments from Fin Min Kan were not official gov't decisions.
- Currencies/Fixed income: European peripheral spreads narrowed in the session but equities continued to be hampered by sporadic bouts of risk aversion which again aided the USD and JPY currencies against the European and commodity pairs. A combination of continued uncertainty over the euro zone outlook in the wake of the EU rescue package and higher China CPI data undermined sentiment. EUR/USD experienced it forst decline in three days and dipped below the 1.27 handle. The Euro was bow below the Friday per-Euro Stability loan package level of 1.2750. The GBP currency buck the session trend and was aided in the session strong Industrial and manufacturing production data. The GBP/USD was holding around 1.4850 as the NY morning approached while EUR/GBP cross dipped below 0.8550.
- Geopolitical: UK News: In an unexpected announcement, Prime Minister Brown to step down role as leader of Labour prior to its annual conference in September. The resignation is an attempt by Labour to court Liberal Democrats who are still undecided as to which party to form a coalition with, though resolution is expected within the next 24 hours according to senior Liberal Democrat sources. Lib Dems have continued to hold on to their theme of electoral reform. Their long campaign to change the current first-past-the-post-voting system, which supports a two party system, is an attempt to seek proportional representation for smaller political parties through the proposed Alternative Vote (AV) system. BBC reported that Tory deputy leader Hague has made a 'final offer' for a vote on the Alternative Vote system, contrary to the opinions long held by the majority of the Conservative party. The offer follows Prime Minister's Brown offer to put AV into law with referendum for voter approval. *** In Germany the senior members within the CDU have looked unfavorably at Chancellor Merkel with many in her own party calling for her resignation. The recent defeat in Sunday's election resulted in the loss of control in the Bundesrat. As a result, the governing party would have to abandon proposed tax cutting measures due to Germany's commitment to Greece and other bailout agreements. *** The US government helped nudge EU officials to pursue large Euro Zone stability package according to a New York Times article. According to the article, US President Obama told Germany's Chancellor Merkel that the Europeans needed an overwhelming financial rescue to end speculation that the euro could crumble. The cabinet meeting during the weekend, including French President Sarkozy, led to Merkel agreeing to the proposed EU-IMF aid package. ***
***Notes/Observations: - UK Production data exceeds expectations - France Fin Min Lagarde: Market reaction to EU mechanism was overdone - China New Yuan loans, property prices, and inflation came in all higher than expected. China sees relatively big pressure for price rises in near future. - China PBoc advisor Xia Bin: Will manage the CNY with reference to a basket of currencies based on market supply and demand. - Japan's Fin Min Kan: questions whether Japan needs such high levels of FX reserve
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:30 (US) Apr NFIB Small Business Optimism: 87.1e v 86.8 prior - 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store sales - 8:30 (US) Fed's lacker - 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store sales - 10:00 (US) Mar Wholesale Inventories: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior - 10:00 (US) May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 48.4e v 48.4 prior - 10:00 (UK) Apr NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.4% prior - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $38B in 2-year notes - 13:15 (US) Fed's Lockhart at financial market conference - 13:30 (US) Fed's Plosser at financial market conference - 17:00 (US) Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence: No est v -47 prior
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