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European Market Update: BOE's King cautions about potential economic headwinds from fiscal consolidation and debt crisis

Wednesday, May 12, 2010 5:56:41 AM

 European Market Update: BOE's King cautions about potential economic headwinds from fiscal consolidation and debt crisis

 

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 13.5 % v 15.1%e
- (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Leading Index: 102.8 v 102.8e; Coincident Index: 101.1 v 101.6e
- (GE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.2%e;
GDP nsa Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.2%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 5.7% v 1.0% prior
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (FR) France Apr CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e;
CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 119.90 v 119.98e
- (FR) France Mar Current Account: -€4.8B v -€3.5B prior - -
- (FR) France 2010 Survey of Industrial Investments: 6 v 5 prior
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e
- (HU) Hungary Q1 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.0%e
- (AS) Austria Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v -1.2% prior
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Preliminary
GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (SP) Spain Q1 Preliminary
GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.4%e
- (SZ) Swiss Apr Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.6%e
- (NE) Netherland Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: % v 0.3%e; Y/Y: % v 0.0%e
- (NE) Netherlands Mar Industrial Production M/M: 2.0% v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.9% v 4.3% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 14.2% v 10.9% prior
- (NE) Netherlands Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v -4.0% prior
- IEA May Monthly Report: Lowers 2010 global oil demand forecast to 1.62M bpd from 1.67m bod prior view
- (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary
GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.1%e
- (UK) Apr Jobless Claims Change: -27.1K v -20.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.7% v 4.8%e
- (UK) Mar Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y:4.0% v 2.1%e; Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e
- (UK) Mar ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths): 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone: Mar Industrial Production M/M: 1.3% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (PO) Portugal Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.5% prior
- (PO) Portugal Apr
CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v1.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6% prior
- (GR) Greece Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.8% v -1.4%e; Y/Y: -2.3% V -2.5% prior
- (PO) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v +1.2%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Most European equities markets opened the session lower, following a mixed trading session in Asia. Equities later moved into positive territory led by
Spain's IBEX following additional comments from the country's PM regarding proposed deficit reduction measures, which led to declines in Spain's credit default swaps. As of 5:47 AM EST, Spain's IBEX is higher by 1%, while the FTSE 100 has moved into negative territory following mixed employment figures and comments out of the Bank of England.

- In Individual Stocks: Telekom
Austria [TKA.AS]: Reported Q1 Net €91.2M well above analysts' estimates of €38M. Revenue of €1.13B slightly above €1.1Be. Guided FY10 revenue at approximately €4.7B, guided FY10 EBITDA at approximately €1.6B || Allianz [ALV.GE]: Reported Q1 Net €1.59B above estimates of €1.2B and revenue of €30.6B also above estimates of €28B. Confirmed exposure to Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal amounted to €14.3B. || KBC [KBC.BE]: Reported Q1 Net €442M above estimates of €376M, underlying Net €543M above €444M, Revenue numbers of €2.28B slightly below estimates of €2.3B|| Deutsche Telekom [DTE.GE]: Reported Q1 Net at €767M and Revenue at €15.8B both above estimates of €710M and €15B, respectively. Guided Adjusted EBITDA at €20B and free cash flow at €6.2B in 2010 || RWE AG [RWE.GE]: Reported Q1 Recurrent Net at €1.74B and Operating profit at €2.99B both slightly above estimates of €1.6B and €2.9B. Revenues were at €15.27B slightly below estimates of €15.5B. Company confirmed 2010 outlook envisaging an increase in EBITDA of 5% to 10% in 2010. Operating result and recurrent net income are expected to grow by approximately 5% || Kloeckner & Co [KCO.GE]: Reported Q1 Net profit €2M above analysts' estimate of a loss of €4M, EBITDA €29M also above estimates of €24Ma and Revenues at €1.0B above estimates of €990Me. Guided 2 earnings 'significantly higher than Q1 and FY10 Revenue up more than 25% y/y. || Deutsche Postbank [DPB.GE]: Reported Q1 Net of €96M and Rev of €963M above the estimates of €65M and €944M respectively. Remained cautious and did not expect remaining quarters of the current fiscal year to yield similar levels of results as Q1 || Salzgitter [SZG.GE]: Reported Q1 Pretax loss € 17.1M an increase from last year's loss of €98.3M. Revenue was in line with analysts' expectations at €1.9B. Could not provided a quantified outlook for sales and the results for the financial year 2010 due to the immense and rapid fluctuations in the cost and price of commodities. || Thyssenkrupp [TKA.GE]: Reported Pretax of €191M, adj EBIT at €368M, Revenue at €10.1B all above analysts' estimates of €153M, €280M, €9.9B respectively.|| Unicredito Italiano [UCG.IT]: Reported Q1 Net profit at €520M well above analysts estimates of €383M and an operating income of €8.6B, an increase of 5.6% over the last quarter. || A P Moller Maersk [MAERSKB.DE]: Reported Q1 Net at DKK3.44B well above estimates of €1.1B, EBITDA at DKK14.9B below estimates of DKK18B and Revenues at DKK71B below estimates of DKK68B. Company raised FY10 guidance and now expects FY10 profit versus prior guidance of modest profit levels in 2010 and FY10 cash flow to be significantly above 2009 levels versus prior guidance of cash flow levels ahead of FY09 levels. || ING [INGA.NV]: Reported Q1 Net at €1.3B below estimates of €981M and Underlying pretax profit at €1.55B below estimates of €947M. Risk costs for the Bank appeared to be trending down and are expected to be below the levels seen in the second half of last year in the coming quarters. || Fortis [FORB.BE]: Reported Q1 Net loss €209M compared to a profit of €44M a year ago and gross inflows €5B below figures of €4.2B a year ago.|| Compass Group [CPG.UK]: Reported H1 Net at £333M higher than net of £248M from a year ago, Pretax at £459M and Revenue of £7.1B both above estimates of £437M and £6.9B respectively. Increased dividend by 14% to 5p/shr. Targeted 5-6% revenue growth in medium term

- Speakers: Speakers: Portugal Treasury Sec commented that there was no need to draw on EU safety net as the government would continue financing program as planned. He expected lower refinancing needs on deeper budget deficit cuts. The Q1 GDP confirmed realism of government forecasts and strengthened confidence in economy. ***ECB's Trichet commented that the Central Bank was taking appropriate decisions in the face of current crisis. He reiterated that primary objective remained for price stability over the medium term. He added that the Gov't bond purchase scheme was in line with Maastrict Treaty and that the ECB would reabsorb all extra liquidity. Lastly he declined to reveal the amount of gov't bond purchases *** ECB's Noyer commented that he was not concerned about stock market correction following its rise over the last year. He stated that the debt purchase program supported monetary policy and the decision to buy bonds came as market moves threatened monetary policy *** ECB's Stark: Gov't bond purchase program is not breaking 'taboo'; Program's aim is to make markets function better. Bond buying program would not lead to inflation and the ECB planned to hold the bonds until maturity. He reiterated ECB view that there was no risk of inflation in the medium term. Lastly he noted that the ECB would resist pressure to monetize government debt. ***
Spain's PM Zapatero commented that Spain would achieve a 6% deficit to GDP ratio in two years with extra austerity measures. He noted that it would implement measures to lower civil service salaries by 5% in 2010 in a move to save an added €15B in 2010 and 2011 period. He did caution that the FY11 GDP estimate would be a touch below the previous forecast of 1.8% growth*** The IEA May monthly report lowered the 2010 global demand outlook to 1.62M bpd from its prior view of 1.67M bps growth. It noted that the reduction was due to lower demand and higher non-OPEC supply forecast. It forecasted 2010 global supply unchanged at 86.6M bpd with OPEC output at 29.0M bpd, up 40K bpd. It raised 2010 non-OPEC oil supply by 200K bpd to 52.3M bpd. It noted that the OPEC average stocks stood at 28.7M bpd, cut by 400K bpd. In China, oil demand was seen steady versus the April report. ***(GE) German Econ Min Bruederle commented on the Q1 GDP data and noted that it suggested that the chance of sustainable economic upswing in 2010 *** Bank of England (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report highlighted that the downside economic risks have increased 'somewhat'. BOE's King heightened market concerns about sovereign debt was a key risk. King stated that the UK needed more detailed and demanding borrowing cuts needed to reduce its deficit and the fiscal plan must target to avoid big rise in gilt yields. The fiscal consolidation would dampen pace of recovery thus a downside risk to EU growth. EU weakness might hit UK exports. *** Greece Labour Union official commented that Greece public and private sector unions planned to hold 24 hour strikes on Wednesday 19th May

- Currencies/Fixed income: The session began with a spat of risk appetite with firmer stocks weighing upon the USD and JPY pairs. The EUR/USD managed to regain a foothold above 1.27 and the
GBP/USD tested the mid 1.50 handle. However cautions comments from BOE's King in the quarterly inflation report about risks to the economic growth front and a tepid German 2-year Schatz auction eroded the initial euphoria. Dealer sentiment in European currencies remains skeptical with plenty of doomsday scenarios from the Roubini and Rogers types. The EUR/USD pivotal support remains at the 1.25 area. On USD/JPY sentiment, dealers savoring the probability of a move higher unless risk aversion hits the currency again.

- Geopolitical:
UK Conservative leader David Cameron became new Prime Minister as the result of the first coalition government since 1945 and ending 13 years of Labour rule. The coalition would receive 37 seats in the House of Commons. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg would be appointed Deputy Prime Minister. Other preliminary appointments included Liberal Democrat party members to hold five seats in the cabinet and Conservative member George Osborne to be Chancellor of the Exchequer, William Hague as foreign secretary. The coalition deal would also include a five-year fixed term parliaments with the next election to take place in May of 2015. Due to the political differences between both parties, details of the compromise, which facilitated the formation of the coalition, would be released to the public on Wednesday. Initial reported compromises include: UK not to petition to join the Euro; focus on spending cuts rather than higher taxes; propose £6B in spending cuts within next 50 days as part of Emergency Budget; Coalition parties agreed on partial reversal of UK insurance payroll tax hike; To end plans for higher inheritance tax threshold; Reverse Employer tax hike plans; To prioritize rolling back employer tax hike.*** Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero released Spain's austerity plans with the objective of reducing the country's borrowing plans. With current budget deficit of 11% of GDP, the Prime Minister now forecasts 6% defcit-to-GDP ratio in two years with extra austerity measures. He reported various cuts including a reduction in public investment by €6B this year, and forecasted FY11 GDP to be a touch below the previous forecast of 1.8% due to measures.

In The papers: Telegraph: EU tells UK not to ask for help if GBP is hit in crisis after refusing to help in EU bailout.

***Notes/Observations:
- Portugal Debt Agency sells €1.0B (upper end) in its 10-year auction.
- Spain PM announced austerity measures
- Rumors circulating that Swiss authorities are considering additional CHF deposit tax
- Gold continues to make fresh all time highs in session near $1,240/oz.
- Euro Zone members Q1 Prelim GDP data basically beating expectations
- BOE's King warns that risks to downside economic growth have increased; Fiscal cuts to be a headwind

***Looking Ahead***
- 7:00 (SA) South Africa Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.4%e v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.7% prior
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 7th: No est v 4.0% prior
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Retail Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 14.0%e v 12.3% prior
- 8:20 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks at Financial Markets conference
- 8:30 (US) Mar Trade Balance:-$40.5Be v -$39.7B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$1.6Be v C$1.4B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Gross Fixed Investment: -0.9%e v -4.8% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.9%e v 4.4% prior
- 10:15 (US) Fed's Rosengren moderates at Financial Markets conference
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE energy inventory: Crude:+1.2Me; Gasloine: +500Ke; Distillate: +1.2Me; Utilization: 89.6%e
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico to sell 2-year, 3-year, 5-bonds
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-year notes
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks
- 13:00 (US) US to sell $24B in 10-year notes
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on economy
-14:00 (US) Apr Monthly Budget Statement: -$56.0Be v -$20.9B prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 9.7% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.6% prior - -
- (MX) Mexico Apr ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y%)

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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