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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 12/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 12, 2010
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Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless
Claims. The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of
the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first
time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of
Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is
used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of
increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a
week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job
growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should
be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future
reading of 440.00K.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.2706 and
successfully reached the first suggested target, stopping only 4 pips
below it! Today, yesterdayâ€™s target have turned into the most important
support, because it managed to stop the latest episode of the falling
series which started close to 1.3105 Fibonacci level that we have talked
about previously. If the price holds above this support, it will
finally have a break, and we could see a rising correction after this
drop of more than 500 pips in less than 48 hours! Todayâ€™s resistance is
at 1.2693, and breaking it would indicate we are already in a rising
correction for the whole drop from 1.3092. The ideal targets for such a
correction are 1.2790 & 1.2848, which we will focus on for today.
Later, the price may reach the third and ideal target for this
correction at 1.2906. Support is as we said, at the target which was met
yesterday 1.260, and breaking it would drag the price to 1.2511 then to
a fresh cycle low at 1.2455.
â€¢ 1.2608: important intraday low.
â€¢ 1.2511: last weekâ€™s & one-year low.
â€¢ 1.2455: Mar 4th 2009 low, an important bottom.
â€¢ 1.2693: important intraday top.
â€¢ 1.2790: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.3092.
â€¢ 1.2848: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3092.
The Dollar/Yenâ€™s is back to slow, small, and boring moves! It barely
completed 90 pips from the low to the high in the past 24 hours, which
is very frustrating. Todayâ€™s important levels are close to each other.
The resistance is at 92.87 & the support is at 92.30. We will be
waiting for one of these two levels to give way. If 92.30 gives way, a
correction for this rocking jump will start, with its first target at
91.40 and the second important target is at 90.75. The resistance is at
92.87, and if broken the price will jump to the resistance that we find
very attractive 93.96. If this one is also broken, 95 will become near,
as we will target 95.05. In the next few days, important evidence on
medium term direction will emerge, and we will be on the watch for them.
â€¢ 92.30: intraday support.
â€¢ 91.40: Fibonacci 38.2% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 90.75: Fibonacci 50% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€¢ 92.87: the falling trend line from Mondayâ€™s tops.
â€¢ 93.96: previous hourly resistance.
â€¢ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market
data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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