Euro Stabilizing; Dollar Pressured by Demand for Risk
The U.S. Dollar Index is trying to hold on to gains but
demand for higher risk assets due to the announcement of new austerity measures
in Spain is making it difficult. Technically, the charts are indicating the
possible development of a distributive top.
The EUR USD is trading slightly better but the good news for
the bulls is that downside momentum is slowing down. It seems traders are
starting to accept the fact that new money is coming into Greece, Portugal
which is helping to shore up short-term liquidity problems. Furthermore, the
news that Spain
is taking a proactive approach to contain its budge is being seen as a
Overnight European Central Bank President Jean-Claude
Trichet helped stabilize the Euro overnight by stating â€śI am more confident
than ever in the future of the Euro.â€ť He did issue a warning however, â€śWe have
to strengthen oversight of budgetary policies adopted by this and that
countryâ€ť. His statements were hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless kept new
short-sellers at bay. When pressed with the question about the ECB losing its
independence, Trichet issued his strongest response, â€śWe havenâ€™t just started
Short-term, the charts indicate the Euro is due for a
technical bounce to the upside, but longer-term the Euro still remains in the
strong hands of the short-sellers.
The GBP USD is expected to advance after it was reported
that an agreement to create a new government had been reached. Traders are
celebrating the news that the Conservative party and the Liberal Democrats have
formed a coalition to create a majority in the Parliament. The move by both
parties helped to put an end to the long-standing rule of Prime Minister Gordon
Brown and the Labour Party.
The formation of a new government is seen as a positive for
the British Pound at this time because it provides clarity to an almost dire
situation. For weeks the Sterling
has succumbed to selling pressure due to the possibility of a hung parliament.
This situation would have created a problem because it would have made it
virtually impossible for the new government to enact the austere fiscal
measures needed to balance the budget and reduce the countryâ€™s debt.
The clarity provided by the â€śnew coalitionâ€ť between the
Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats comes at an important time because of
the events taking place in the Euro Zone. The formation of a new government
will help to provide the psychological boost the British Pound needs to reverse
the current down trend.
Stronger demand for commodities and stocks this morning are
helping to encourage buying in the commodity linked-currencies. Higher crude
oil, gold and stocks are underpinning the AUD USD and NZD USD while pressuring
the USD CAD.The early strength in the U.S. equity
markets is helping to drive the USD JPY higher.
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