***Economic Data*** - (SA) South Africa Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 3.0%e - (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 7th: 3.9% v 4.0% prior - (IR) Ireland Apr Consumer Confidence: 65.6 v 61.9 prior - (BR) Brazil Mar Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 15.7% v 14.0%e - (US) Mar Trade Balance: -$40.4B v -$40.5Be - (CA) Canada Mar New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e v 0.1% prior - (CA) Canada Mar Int'l Merchandise Trade: C$0.3B v C$1.6Be - (MX) Mexico Feb Gross Fixed Investment: -2.3% v -0.9%e v -4.8% prior - (MX) Mexico Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: 7.6% v 5.9%e - (US) Weekly DOE energy inventory: Crude: +1.95 v +1.2Me; Gasoline: -2.8M v +500Ke; Distillate: +1.4M v +1.2Me; Utilization: 88.4% v 89.6%e
- US equity indices opened slightly higher this morning and are racking up solid gains in early trading. With the focus off of the European debt crisis for the first time in a week investors are finally turning back to positive domestic US economic data, chiefly the US March trade numbers. Both imports and exports hit their highest levels since late 2008. Signs of strain remain, however, with spot gold testing all-time highs around $1,245. Note that earlier in the morning the Austrian Mint said that it has seen signs of panic buying in recent gold orders from Europe. In the US, the Ceridian-UCLA index of on highway diesel usage fell 0.3%, suggesting the economic recovery may have stalled. Front month crude made its way to positive territory after the larger-than-expected draw downs seen in the weekly DoE inventory data, trading just shy of the $77 handle. Treasury prices are marginally lower ahead of this afternoon's 10-year auction. The benchmark yield is just above 3.55%.
- Morgan Stanley is under pressure this morning, with shares down 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Federal investigators are probing the firm over mortgage-derivatives transactions. According to the article federal prosecutors are probing whether Morgan Stanley misled investors about CDO deals and whether the firm disclosed its dual roles. Morgan Stanley flatly denied the report.
- In earnings, Disney slightly exceeded expectations in its Q2 report. Shares of DIS fell up to 2% in the premarket, but are up 1% or so in early trading. Macy's was more or less in line with consensus estimates. M is up 2%, but well off its highs. SunPower missed earnings targets and guided way below par for next quarter. Electronic Arts came in a bit ahead of expectations. ERTS and SPWRA are both down 6%.
- In FX trading USD/JPY regained a footing above the 93.00 level in early NY aided by firmer equity prices. EUR/USD continued to stay below the 1.2750 pivot area which represented last week close ahead of the EU stability package announced last weekend. GBP/USD remained below the 1.49 handle after dovish BOE remarks from the quarterly inflation report.
***Looking Ahead*** - 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 3-year notes - 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks - 13:00 (US) US to sell $24B in 10-year notes - 13:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on economy -14:00 (US) Apr Monthly Budget Statement: -$56.0Be v -$20.9B prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 9.7% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.6% prior - (MX) Mexico Apr ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y%)
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