Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (12 May 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2605
level and was capped around the $1.2740 level.Traders continue to express skepticism with the latest bailout plans for
eurozone countries, doubting that Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal
will be able to dramatically reduced their bloated deficits and rein in fiscal
spending.Sovereign debt concerns continue
to weigh heavily over the common currency.European Central Bank President Trichet today ‚Äúruled out completely‚ÄĚ the
idea that a member country of the eurozone could be expelled from membership.
Trichet also defended the ECB‚Äôs decision this week to purchase eurozone
government bonds in the secondary market, reporting it is ‚Äúnot a situation of
quantitative easing. We are takking back all the liquidity that we‚Äôre
providing.‚ÄĚConcurrent with the eurozone
jitters, it was announced that Estonia will join the euro on 1 January
2011.Data released in the eurozone
today saw EMU-16 March industrial production climb 1.3% m/m and 6.9% y/y while
EMU-16 GDP growth registered 0.2% q/q and 0.5% y/y.The ECB will release its May monthly report
tomorrow.German data released today saw
Q1 GDP growth of 0.2% q/q and 1.7% y/y.Also,
French consumer prices were up 0.3% m/m and 1.7% y/y while Q1 gross domestic
product was up 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y.In U.S. news, St. Louis Fed President
Bullard said the economic recovery is ‚Äúfairly robust‚ÄĚ and said risks from
Europe are ‚Äúnot that high.‚ÄĚ The Senate today voted to keep regulatory oversight
of smaller banks with the Fed.Data
released in the U.S. today saw MBA mortgage applications up 3.9% while the
March trade balance printed at ‚ÄďUS$ 40.4 billion, wider than the revised ‚ÄďUS$
39.4 billion.Euro bids are cited
around the US$ 1.2585 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•93.25 level and was supported around
the ¬•92.45 level. Some risk appetite
returned to the market after several days of intense volatility and traders
reduced exposure to the yen.Data
released in Japan overnight saw official reserve assets climb to US$ 1.046
trillion while the March leading and coincident indices rallied to 102.8 and
101.1, respectively.Many data will be
released in Japan overnight.Bank of
Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi this week said the central bank has ‚Äúno need to
alter the outlook in our semi-annual economic report‚ÄĚ following recent market
volatility.Finance minister Kan this
week reported equity and currency markets will ‚Äústart to stabilize.‚ÄĚMinutes from last month‚Äôs BoJ Policy Board
meeting were released yesterday and policymakers observed ‚Äúbalance sheet
adjustments in the banking sector and the fiscal deficit problem in some
European countries might further slow the pace of economic recovery‚ÄĚ in the
region.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.16%
to close at ¬•10,394.03.U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•118.40 level and was supported
around the ¬•116.55 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•139.80 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•84.10 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese
yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8272 in the over-the-counter market, down
from CNY 6.8293. People‚Äôs Bank of China
adviser Xin Bin this week said the central bank‚Äôs quarterly report released on
Mondat is a signal the central bank will permit the yuan to appreciate
vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar.The central
bank yielded some clues regarding the possibility of ending its U.S. dollar
peg, reporting it will manage the yuan ‚Äúwith reference to a basket of
currencies‚ÄĚ ‚Äď language that was absent from the central bank‚Äôs previous
British pound depreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable
tested bids around the US$ 1.4815 level and was capped around the $1.5045
level.New Prime Minister Cameron formed
a government with the Liberal Democrats and the new coalition government
promised to reduce the U.K.‚Äôs deficit.Bank of England Governor King applauded the new government‚Äôs decision to
reduce as much as ¬£6 billion in spending this year.BoE released its quarterly inflation report
today in which predicted inflation will remain above its 2% target through the
remainder of the year and about 1.4% in two years‚Äô time.Nonetheless, there are no indications BoE is
considering tightening policy at this time and the central bank added downside
U.K. growth rates have ‚Äúincreased somewhat.‚ÄĚBoE is expected to begin reversing its quantitative easing policies in
2011.Data released in the U.K. today
saw the April claimant count tick lower to 4.7% from 4.8% while jobless claims
were off 27,100.Average weekly earnings
accelerated sharply to 4.0% and the ILO unemployment rate remained steady at
8.0%.April Nationwide consumer
confidence will be released tonight.Cable
bids are cited around the US$ 1.4335 level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis
the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8545 level
and was supported around the ¬£0.8445 level.
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.1060 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1140 level. The Swiss government today called on UBS and
Credit Suisse to reduce risk-taking activities.Data released in Switzerland today saw April producer and import prices
up 0.6% m/m and 0.8% y/y.U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the CHF 1.1270 level.The euro moved lower
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4015
level while the British pound depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6415 level.
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