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Thursday May 13, 2010 - 13:24:49 GMT
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AUD USD Strengthens on Better Jobs Data

The Australian Dollar is firming up this morning after a report showed that the economy added a greater-than-expected 33,700 jobs in April. This is good news for the Aussie because it shows that the economy is growing despite six interest rate increases. The pre-report estimate was for an increase of 22,500 jobs. Prior to last night’s jobs data report many traders felt that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s series of interest rate cuts were slowing down the economy. The new jobs number may be an indication that the economy may be able to handle another hike.


Technically, the Aussie appears to be building a supportive bottom which could trigger a further rally into a retracement zone at .9047 to .9228.


The NZD USD is trading higher overnight, partially because of the strength in the Australian Dollar and because of the increase in the country’s business main index from 56.7 to 58.9. Technically, this currency remains rangebound between .7325 to .7007. This makes .7166 to .7203 a key retracement zone.


Selling pressure continues to drive the EUR USD lower. The short-term euphoria triggered earlier in the week by the announcement of a fresh bailout package from the European Union appears to have worn off. Investors feel that the new money being pumped into the economy is merely new debt being piled on top of old debt. In addition, the market seems to like the idea of financial austerity measures rather than new debt. Earlier in the week, the Euro rallied after Spain announced it was going to begin cutting costs.


Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. This market remains in the strong hands of the hedge funds and large traders who continue to push it lower. There is so much money on the short-side of the market that even a $1 trillion bailout plan could not scare them out of their positions. There may be a technical bounce on the first test of the low at 1.2518, but this is likely to attract more selling pressure.


The GBP USD is trading inside of a short-term retracement zone at 1.4763 to 1.4695, but downside momentum is building which could drive this market even lower. Earlier in the week, the British Pound rallied following the announcement of the formation of a new government. Reality set in rather quickly shortly after this event as investors began to realize that austere financial measures will be necessary to cut the budget deficit and reduce the sovereign debt. On Wednesday the Bank of England announced that economic growth will be slow over the next two years. This news is also pressuring the British Pound.


The weaker Euro is helping to boost the USD CHF. The current chart formation suggests that new low in the Euro will lead to a breakout to the upside through the recent top at 1.1246. A new main bottom has been formed at 1.0923. A trade through this price will turn the main trend down.


Weakening equity markets and the fear that the problems in the Euro Zone will slow down economic growth is helping to pressure the USD JPY. Traders seem to be shedding higher risk assets this morning driving investors into the safety of the lower yielding Japanese Yen.


The USD CAD was under pressure most of the night, but traders have been paring losses now that equity markets are beginning to show signs of weakness. A break through the recent bottom in crude oil is also contributing to this morning’s turnaround. June Crude Oil is in a position to break sharply which could trigger a strong short-covering rally in the Dollar/CAD.




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
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A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

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