U.S. Stock Indices are trading flat this morning after a
limited, rangebound overnight trade. The chart pattern suggests that this
weekâ€™s rally may be running out of steam after three straight sessions of higher-highs.
This morningâ€™s U.S. Initial Claims Report may act as a
catalyst for a pop in equity prices today but the primary concerns among
investors remain the risk of contagion in Europe
and the possible slowdown in global economic growth.
Technically, the June E-mini S&P 500 has a possible
upside target at 1190.75 but also faces exposure to a 50% of the recent rally
to 1115.50. The old bottoms at 1171.00, 1176.75 and 1179.75 could prove to be
strong resistance today. The first sign of weakness will be a break back under
a .618 level at 1155.50.
The June E-mini NASDAQ has a wall of resistance at 1985.75
and 1989.50. A break under 1933.25 will be the first sign of weakness. The June
E-mini Dow found resistance at the old bottom at 10916. Weakness could start if
10684 fails to hold on a test.
The June Treasury Bond continued to weaken overnight in
limited trading. Traders have been lightening up safety positions this week as
the stock market rallied and exposure to risk subsided.This weekâ€™s Treasury auctions have kept
traders on the sidelines while limiting ranges.
Technically, downside pressure is expected to continue to
push this market into a 50% price level at 119â€™11. There may be a technical
bounce at this level, but a failure to build support could drive it into the
.618 support at 118â€™04.
June Gold is trading lower overnight after soaring to a new
all-time on Wednesday at $1249.20. Based on the short-term range of $1156.20 to
$1249.20, this market remains vulnerable to a correction to $1202.70 to
The driving force in this market has been the fear of
contagion. Speculators have been buying gold in anticipation of further
weakness in the Euro Zone economy. Traders are monitoring the debt markets in Spain, Portugal
to watch for any drastic changes in risk premiums. This would serve as the
first notice that concerns about sovereign debt defaults are returning.
June Crude Oil is under a little pressure overnight. The
recent bottom at 74.51 is still intact but vulnerable. A drop in the Euro could
trigger a break through this level. Traders remain concerned that a slow down
in the Euro Zone economy will lead to a further deterioration in demand for
crude oil and energy products. Yesterdayâ€™s oil inventory report showed an
increase in supply that encouraged further selling. The outlook in demand for
crude oil remains bleak although losses could be limited on the thought at Chinaâ€™s robust
economy may be able to pick up the slack.
The June Dollar Index is trading better this morning, driven
higher by weakness in the June Euro and June British Pound. The Euro continues
to drift lower on the lack of confidence in the new European Union bailout
proposals. Traders still feel that this plan will fail because it amounts to
nothing except new debt piled upon old debt. The euphoria created by the new
government in the U.K.
seems to be wearing off as traders are driving the British Pound lower as they
face the reality of new austere financial measures. Yesterdayâ€™s report from the
Bank of England calling for slow growth in the economy is also helping to apply
downside pressure. Increased demand for higher risk assets is pressuring the
June Japanese Yen while underpinning the June Canadian Dollar.
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