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Thursday May 13, 2010 - 15:41:25 GMT
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U.S. Data Preview: Retail sales, Industrial Production and University of Michigan CSIRETAIL SALES GROWTH TO SLOW ON FALL IN AUTO SALESRetail sales rose by 1.9 percent in March on the back of automobile sales, but this volatile sector is likely to see a drop in April and hence push the headline figure to show a growth of around 0.2 percent (retail sales excluding automobiles is forecast to rise 0.4%). Despite the slowing in growth, a number of +0.2% is similar to the growth seen for the first three months of 2010 and only a negative figure would register the first drop in monthly retail sales since September last year.INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION TO PICK UP ON MANUFACTURINGIndustrial production for the month of April should rise by around 0.6% after registering only a small gain of 0.1% in March, helped in part by the robust manufacturing sector which has led the ISM manufacturing index to increase as high as 66.6 (highest since 2004). Positive revisions to the previous month's reading are likely and the manufacturing and mining production numbers are expected to be the main factors in growth.UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CSI TO MOVE BACK ABOVE 73Last month saw a relatively large drop in the preliminary reading for the consumer sentiment index at 69.5 (from 73.6) due to the steep fall in the economic expectations sub-index, which fell from 67.9 to 62.3, however, the final number for April was revised upwards to 72.2 (the expectations index was changed to 66.5) to show a smaller drop from the reading of 73.6 seen in February and March. Analysts are predicting the CSI to improve to 73.9, as consumers are likely to be encouraged by the latest jobs (non-farm payrolls increase of 290,000) and manufacturing data.CURRENCY OUTLOOKStock markets have been able to rise regardless of the selloff in the euro and sterling due to worries over the euro region debt contagion and bearish sentiment over the U.K. economic recovery respectively and investors will view any upside surprises as another reason to buy the greenback on expectations that the Fed will tighten monetary policy ahead of the ECB, based on the improving economic outlook. However, with the number of releases, some choppy moves may be seen in the currency markets as well as profit taking ahead of the weekend. Given the recent upbeat economic figures out of the U.S., one should not be rash and open positions based on fundamentals without checking out the charts first.
Written by www.imperialFXonline.com
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