Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Reduced European Participation
The Daily Forex View
GVI Forex Analysis
Reduced European Participation
20:00 GMT- May 13 (global-view.com) A number of European markets were closed Thursday for the Ascension Day holiday, and this reduced market participation modestly. By and large capital flows out of the Euro continued for another day. There were rumors early that Germany was threatening it partners about going back to the dm. The story was never confirmed and if such is being considered. it would be a drawn out process. Dealers were looking to the technicals for trading guidance. In the EUR/USD, 1.2510 is its recent low. Some were citing a major German purchase of a U.S. firm as a possible source of recent USD demand against the EUR.
One response of the markets to recent concerns about future uncertainties about the EUR has been to flee to gold. Gold prices corrected downward over the day. In addition to gold, good barometers of the markets remain equity and forex prices. In the medium tem it will be important to see how austerity measures are accepted politically in those countries where they are being imposed.
The EURUSD is lower and the GBPUSD is down. EURGBP is steady. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.
In the GBP, the U.K. finally has a new government and Prime Minister, but the government will be weak. A new election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD has turned negative again.
The EURCHF is soft. SNB intervention tactics have changed, but flows from the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. Swiss Markets were closed.
The USDJPY pair is lower and the EURJPY cross is down. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has pressed the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are higher. Australian employment data today were stronger than expected. The RBA recently raised its cash rate target to 4.50% (+25bp). It also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are down. Gold is still being used as as refuge from paper money. We favor AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally.
Far East equities closed higher. European bourses were up. U.S. equities are lower. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.55%, -3 bps. Flight to safety demand has eased. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Friday will see no major Far East or European data. In North America , Canadian manufacturing sales are awaited. The U.S. will release Retail Sales, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentimentand Business Inventories.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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