The EUR USD fell to a new low for the year, in effect,
wiping out the $1 trillion bet placed by the European Union over the week-end.
Now that the short-term fix has been eliminated by the market action, the
downtrend can resume its normal course. It looks at this point that the EU and
IMF are out of bullets so buckle your seatbelt. The European Central Bank may
try to get creative by slashing interest rates to zero, but this move is likely
to wear off quickly as it would indicate that it expects the Euro Zone to show
no growth over the near-term. Thursdayâ€™s downside action also demonstrated that
the hedge funds and large traders remain fearless.
The GBP USD traded sharply lower on Thursday after breaking
through a short-term retracement zone at 1.4763 to 1.4695. Earlier in the week,
the British Pound rallied following the announcement of the formation of a new
government. Reality set in rather quickly shortly after this event as investors
began to realize that austere financial measures will be necessary to cut the
budget deficit and reduce the sovereign debt. On Wednesday the Bank of England
announced that economic growth will be slow over the next two years. This news
also pressured the British Pound. Downside momentum appears strong enough to
drive this market into last weekâ€™s low at 1.4474
The weaker Euro helped to boost the USD CHF. The current
chart formation suggests that the new low in the Euro is likely to lead to a
breakout to the upside through the recent top at 1.1246. A new main bottom has
been formed at 1.0923. A trade through this price will turn the main trend
Weaker equity markets and the fear that the problems in the
Euro Zone will slow down economic growth helped to pressure the USD JPY.
Traders shed higher risk assets most of the trading session driving investors
into the safety of the lower yielding Japanese Yen.It now appears that the Dollar/Yen is likely
to remain under pressure until either the U.S. begins to raise interest rates
or normal demand for higher risk assets returns to the market.
The USD CAD was under pressure most of the night, but
traders began paring losses once equity markets started to show signs of
weakness. A break through the recent bottom in crude oil also contributed to this
morningâ€™s turnaround. June Crude Oil is in a position to break sharply which
could trigger a strong short-covering rally in the Dollar/CAD.
Technically, the Dollar/CAD formed a closing price reversal
bottom. Based on the current formation, watch for a rally to 1.0423 over the
The Australian Dollar firmed up overnight after a report
showed that the economy added a greater-than-expected 33,700 jobs in April.
This was good news for the Aussie because it shows that the economy is growing
despite six interest rate increases. The pre-report estimate was for an
increase of 22,500 jobs. Prior to last nightâ€™s jobs data report many traders
felt that the Reserve Bank of Australiaâ€™s
series of interest rate cuts were slowing down the economy. The new jobs number
may be an indication that the economy may be able to handle another hike.
Technically, the Aussie appears to be building a supportive
bottom which could trigger a further rally into a retracement zone at .9047 to
.9228. A slowdown in demand for higher yielding assets or a sharp break in U.S. equity
markets however is likely to make traders forget about an interest rate hike
and resume the recent downtrend.
The NZD USD traded higher overnight, partially because of
the strength in the Australian Dollar and because of the increase in the
countryâ€™s business main index from 56.7 to 58.9. Technically, this currency
remains rangebound between .7325 to .7007. This makes .7166 to .7203 a key
retracement zone. The close under the 50% price at .7166 puts this market in
weak position and should encourage further selling pressure especially if the U.S. stock
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